Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)
Pat Toomey (Unchallenged)
Pennsylvania Senate (Democratic Primary)
Arlen Specter (inc) 42.5%
Joe Sestak 42.1%
The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be a real nailbiter. Incumbent Arlen Specter is ahead according to the metric, despite a surge by Sestak which eventually stalled mid-week. We will not make a prediction on allocating undecideds and will allocate evenly, predicting Specter will narrowly pull this one out by around 1%.
The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)