Monday, May 17, 2010

PA-Sen Primary: Statistical Tie, Slight Edge To Specter

Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)

Pat Toomey (Unchallenged)

Pennsylvania Senate (Democratic Primary)

Arlen Specter (inc) 42.5%
Joe Sestak 42.1%
Undecided/Other 15.4%

Specter +0.4%

Race News:

The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be a real nailbiter. Incumbent Arlen Specter is ahead according to the metric, despite a surge by Sestak which eventually stalled mid-week. We will not make a prediction on allocating undecideds and will allocate evenly, predicting Specter will narrowly pull this one out by around 1%.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)


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