Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Post-Game Analysis: GA-Gov Primary (GOP)

Primary polling in the Georgia race was surprisingly right on the mark. After starting off the month of July behind in the polls, Karen Handel surged to the lead and won a plurality of voters.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

GA-Gov Primary (Rep):
Metric: Handel 30 - Deal 19 (Handel +11)
Final: Handel 34 - Halter 23 (Handel +11)

Our metric was right on the mark. With polls showing varying Handel leads, none of the pollsters nailed the margin. But we did. :) Oxendine severely underperformed and essentially picked up no undecided voters from our metric. (We nailed his percentage) Johnson was at 14 percent and ended up in 3rd place, garnering 20 percent of the vote.

Most Accurate Pollster: Insider Advantage - Handel 24 - Deal 16 (Handel +8)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

7/20/10 Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)
Race Prediction (Final) -
Using the last week's slew of polls, opinions from unnamed, anonymous experts on Georgia politics, and factors such as momentum and endorsements (which tend to go hand-in-hand when an endorsement comes from a former governor of a chilly, Arctic state), AZDB is willing to put his powers-of-prediction reputation on the line in a clustered gubernatorial primary. Using Electionology's final metric for the GA GOP Primary and allocating the remaining "undecided" and "other" voters, here is the final prediction for the results come Tuesday night (Remember, top 2 go to runoff in August):.

Karen Handel 40%
Nathan Deal 22%
John Oxendine 17%
Eric Johnson 15%
Other 6%
Handel +18% (1st)
Deal +5 (2nd)


Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)

Karen Handel 30%
Nathan Deal 19%
John Oxendine 17%
Eric Johnson 14%
Other 6%
Undecided 14%

Handel +11%

Race News:
What a race. The frontrunner John Oxendine has fallen to third place and likely won't make runoff. We predict Handel and Deal to make it to the runoff. Karen Handel received a "Mama Grizzly" endorsement from Palin, who demonstrated the same magic in her Nikki Haley endorsement in South Carolina. Her candidate here in Georgia, Karen Handel, has since surged in the polls and is now the clear frontrunner. The runoff will be another exciting race to watch.

The primary election is tomorrow, July 20. (Posting this at 2:50 AM PDT, so technically the election is today)

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)


Sunday, July 4, 2010

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - Florida

Now representing our "50 Best" series is the Sunshine State (Florida, for you geography majors out there). Amazing to think where the GOP stood in this southern-but-not-really-part- of-the-South state 50 years ago. Republicans hadn't held the governor's office in over 83 years (and wouldn't finally see one for 7 more years). It hadn't held either U.S. Senate seats in over 80 years, and occupied only one of its eight Congressional seats. And even up until the Gipper took the oath of office, 12 of 15 Representatives in Congress were Democrats. Going back to the 1870s and throughout the 20th Century, Republican politicians were about as popular as polio in Florida. But the national souring of the Democrat brand in the South under Reagan & Bill Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion) during an explosion of Florida's population allowed for a second look at what the GOP had to offer. Today, the Republicans have been victorious in three consecutive Governor races (even though the current occupant, Mr. Green Iguana, has quit the party and declared himself "Independent" in a desperate attempt to be a U.S. Senator), holds a Senate seat (occupying at least one for 24 of the last 30 years), and represents 15 of the state's 25 congressional districts.
No surprise then that the most influential Republican, the one who has been the Best for the Florida GOP's brand, and who has done the most for the party's statewide bench served in recent years. Thus, the "50 Best" honor goes to John Ellis "Jeb" Bush, who coincidentally served as 43rd governor of Florida while his older brother, George W, served simultaneously as 43rd President of the United States.
Jeb Bush is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of Texas, finishing his Bachelor's in only two and a half years. After getting his degree, he took an entry level position in the international division of Texas Commerce Bank. In 1977, he was sent to Caracas, Venezuela to open a new operation for the bank and spent about two years working in international finance. He returned to the U.S. in 1980, working unpaid for his father's campaign for President. Following the unsucessful nomination battle, Jeb and family moved to Miami-Dade, Florida, where he began a stretch working in real estate ventures. During Bush's time in Miami, he was involved in many different entrepreneurial pursuits, including working for a mobile phone company, serving on the board of a Norwegian-owned company that sold fire equipment to the Alaska oil pipeline, becoming a minority owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, buying a shoe company that sold footwear in Panama, and getting involved in a project selling water pumps in Nigeria (Wiki). Jeb started his rise in Florida politics as Chairman of the Dade County Republican Party. Since Dade County was know to have played an impact role in the 1986 election of Bob Martinez as Governor, Martinez in turn appointed Bush as Florida's Secretary of Commerce, serving from 1987-88 before resigning to work on his father's presidential campaign (ibid). In 1994, hoping to ride a national GOP wave, he launched a bid to dethrone the incumbent governor, Lawton Chiles. Neck-and-neck the entire campaign, the race turned in the waning days on the Chiles team's under-the-radar effort to scare the state's large senior population over the issue of Social Security. Bush lost by on 64K votes out of over 4 million cast. The same year, his brother George W shocked Texas Democrats by defeating the seemingly-popular Governor Ann "Ma" Richards. If not for a swing of 32,000 votes, Jeb, the one the Bush family imagined destined for the Presidency, may have instead been demagogued as a Nazi and war criminal during the last decade instead of his brother.
The younger Bush got a bit of revenge in 1998, winning the Florida Governorship by a comfortable 418K vote margin. Unable to come to grips with losing the Presidency in 2000 by an insanely-small margin in the deciding state of Florida, national Democrats targeted Jeb Bush as priority #1 in the midterms of 2002, believing it was his influence that captured the Presidency for his older brother. Frothing at the mouth, Democrats thought they had a winner with inexperienced lawyer Bill McBride. However, riding a strong record as Governor and popularity with voters, Bush easily dispatched of McBride by 13%, an even greater margin than when he wasn't so targeted in 1998. Bush made Florida political history by becoming the first Republican Governor to ever win re-election in Florida, and later became only the second governor in the state's history to complete two entire four-year terms. Unable to seek a third race in 2006 due to term limits, Jeb has been object of speculation that he would run for either U.S. Senate or the Presidency. So far he has declined to run for either.
Jeb Bush has been THE heavyweight figure in Florida GOP circles for more than a decade, and his legacy includes an expansion of Republican officeholders in the state under his watch, as well as setting up the state's Attorney General to follow him as Governor during the GOP bloodbath of 2006. For these reasons and improvement of the Florida state GOP under his tenure, Jeb Bush earns the honor of one of the nation's "50 Best."
Honorable Mention: Former Congressman & Senator Connie Mack; Congressman Bill Young
Next Chapter: Georgia

- 50 Best