Pennsylvania (Democratic Primary)
Arlen Specter (D-inc) 45%
Joe Sestak 40%
After switching parties seemingly to avoid a contested primary on the GOP side, Arlen Specter, now a Democrat, is fending off a challenge by Joe Sestak. The electorate is quickly deciding and this is looking to be one of the most contested primaries of 2010. Sestak has gained momentum in the last week, so our next update may put him ahead if he maintains that momentum.
The primary election is in nine days, May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)