Monday, May 17, 2010

PA-12: Toss-Up - Slight Edge To GOP

PA-12 (Special Election)

Tim Burns (R) 45%
Mark Critz (D) 45%
Undecided 10%

Race News:

There are 10% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:

Tim Burns (R) 51%
Mark Critz (D) 49%

Burns +2

A week is an eternity in politics. Just a week ago, it looked like the Republican was sure to pick up this seat, due to the nature of the special election and the district's demographics. However, with the primary election for Senate held the same day, a heated primary on the Democratic side between incumbent Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, is putting more attention to this race, mostly from Democrats. Pollsters disagree on the extent of this event's effect on the turnout model.

Burns, the Republican, is leading in the latest poll, done by PPP, a Democratic pollster. He consistently receives about 20 percent of Democrats, has double digit leads with Independents and consolidates his Republican base. Similar models have given Republicans Scott Brown, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's races, despite significant disadvantages in registration in those states. We will likely see a similar scenario with Burns, but will not be surprised if Critz prevails.

This will be a true test of the Get-Out-The-Vote mechanisms of both parties.

The special election is tomorrow, on May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)


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