Monday, May 17, 2010

AR-Sen Primary: Lincoln, Boozman Likely To Avoid Runoff

Arkansas Senate (Republican Primary)

John Boozman 46%
Jim Holt 14%
Gilbert Baker 12%
Kim Hendren 4%
Other 7%
Undecided 17%

Boozman +32%

Arkansas Senate (Democratic Primary)

Blanche Lincoln (inc) 44%
Bill Halter 34%
D.C. Morrisson 4%
Undecided 18%

Lincoln +10%

Race News:
Polling has been scarce on the AR GOP Primary, but the metric shows John Boozman with a clear 32% lead over Jim Holt. Holt is even polling ahead of once-frontrunner Gilbert Baker. Boozman only needs to pick up 4% of the pool of 17% undecideds to avoid a runoff. The numbers are on his side.

Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is consolidating her support and looks set to win her primary. If she doesn't reach 50%, there will be a runoff, but with a solid 44 percent of support, she only needs to pick up a third, 6% of the 18% of undecideds to win this without a runoff. This is likely to happen tomorrow.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)


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