2010 Senate Post-Game Analysis

Based on RCP averages, it seems that Democrat support across the board was underestimated and Republicans overestimated, except for a handful of safe seats on the GOP side.

Underestimated GOP:
AR-Sen: Boozman (R) 1.4
FL-Sen: Rubio (R) by 2.2
KY-Sen: Paul (R) 0.6
LA-Sen: Vitter (R) 3.9
MO-Sen: Blunt (R) 3.3
ND-Sen: Hoeven (R) 7.0
NH-Sen: Ayotte (R) 7.5

Underestimated Dems:
CA-Sen: Boxer (D) 4.3
CO-Sen: Bennet (D) 3.1
CT-Sen: Blumenthal (D) 3.1
DE-Sen: Coons (D) 2.6
IN-Sen: Ellsworth (D) 4.7
IL-Sen: Giannoulias (D) 1.4
NV-Sen: Reid (D) 8.3
NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 0.7
OH-Sen: Fisher (D) 2.2
OR-Sen: Wyden (D) 0.4
NY-Sen: Gilibrand (D) 4.8
PA-Sen: Sestak (D) 2.5
WA-Sen: Murray (D) 2.7
WV-Sen: Manchin (D) 5.6
WI-Sen: Feingold (D) 2.8

2010 Final House Ratings

We predict over 70 seats will flip from a lopsided Democrat House to a GOP House. With the lack of polling, it's hard to tell which races are truly competitive but based on factors such as funding and sparse/sporadic polling, the House is an absolute bloodbath for Democrats this cycle.

2010 Final Gov Ratings

FL-Gov: Toss-up to Lean GOP (Favors GOP)
CO-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
CT-Gov: Lean Dem to Lean GOP (Favors GOP)
MD-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
RI-Gov: Lean Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
TX-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)

There is even more uncertainty as now we have 8 races that are too close to call. Half of them are 3-way races with lots of uncertainty factoring in (MN, RI, CO, MA). The rest are simply too volatile to call though most tilt Dem (CA, HI, VT). Oregon tilts GOP.

Current Projections (October 9, 2010):

GOP: 31

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 7

Lean: 6

Dem: 11

No Race: 7

Safe: 1

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 8

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe)

LIKELY DEM NY (Open)

LEAN DEM MD (O'Malley) NH (Lynch)

TOSS UP CA (Open) CO (Open) HI (Open) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) OR (Open) RI (Open) VT (Open)

LEAN GOP CT (Open) FL (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) OH (Strickland) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) NM (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open) TX (Perry)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

2010 Final Senate Ratings - Senate Control Comes Down To West Coast

WV-Sen: Lean GOP to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
KY-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
NV-Sen: Toss-up to Lean GOP (favors GOP)

The GOP solidifies Kentucky and improves its position in Nevada while WV seems to slip out of reach. Despite widely variant polling WA and CA, we have both as tossups, with Dems slightly favored in CA and GOP slightly favored in WA.

Current Projections (November 1, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 14

Likely: 8

Lean: 4

Dem: 49

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 2

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM DE (Open) NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) WV ' (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) WA (Murray)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) NV (Reid) PA (Open)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) KY (Open) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

Breaking Down the Polls - Colorado Senate

Mark Twain said there were three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and polls. OK, so maybe it wasn't exactly what Mark Twain said, but close enough. (I wasn't lying, but just making a point.) Most recently released polls for the Colorado Senate race between Ken Buck (R) and Michael Bennet (D - Nerd Herd) show an extremely close race, anywhere from Buck +1 to Buck +4. Even using the most current spread touted by one of the most respected pollsters in the business shows a closeness that is pure wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats. Unless people in Colorado either change their minds or undecideds move en masse to Bennet in the next 5 days, Ken Buck will win the race rather comfortably using current projections.

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Rasmussen Reports just released a poll of this race taken Monday, October 25 among 750 "likely voters." Details of the poll's internals are included here:

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2010/10/poll-watch-rasmussen-colorado_27.html.

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Cutting to the chase, the top-line numbers are (with leaners) Buck leading 48-44, with 6% undecided. When you factor in a 4% margin of error for this survey, it sounds like any body's ballgame, right? Not so fast, Arsenio! As usual with most things, polls especially, the devil's in the details. Time to put my years of professional numbers-crunching to work on this one.

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Delving into the poll's breakdown reveals two key sets of factors that affect the top-line #s to Ken Buck's disadvantage, but should make him breathe easier. First, Rasmussen reveals that his party breakdown for the poll is as follows: 36% Democrat, 30% GOP, and 34% Independent/Other. Sounds innocent enough, and not overwhelmingly imbalanced to cast doubt on the calculated top-line result. Until you consider that in 2008, a year with more Democrat enthusiasm in Colorado than ever before and mediocre turnout on the GOP side in the state, according to exit polls reported by the vaunted New York Times, the party breakdown in Colorado for that amazing Democrat year was 30% Democrat, 31% GOP, and 39% Independent/Other. Apples to apples, are we supposed to believe that in 2010, a year in which most GOP voters will walk over broken glass to vote for their party nominee (or mainly, against the Democrat) and which Democrat enthusiasm has surely come down from the Hope-and-Change high of 2008 (with the Dem Convention being held in their own state just for good measure), that there will be 6% MORE Democrats showing up to vote (about a 20% increase in voter strength from 30% to 36%)? At the same time, the GOP of CO, which had a severe case of the "blah"s in 2008, we're led to believe is actually gonna go down as a % in these midterms? Color me skeptical on those two conclusions...Wait, let me rephrase that: No way in hell either of those two things are gonna happen Nov 2.

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Secondly, going to the "Inside the numbers" section at the end of the survey, we read as follows:

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Colorado Republicans support Buck, while 82% of the state’s Democrats line up behind Bennet. Voters not affiliated with either major party give a 23-point advantage to the Republican.

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So, we get a negligible difference between respective party support for Buck and Bennet, but a ridiculous 23% lead among Indies for the Republican nominee. Just using the 2008 party breakdown - the high-water mark for Democrats and the abyss for the GOP - gives Buck about a 50.5-41 lead, if we assume both the 2008 exit polls and the Rasmussen survey results are accurate. Not exactly a squeaker at the moment, but also not a blowout when one factors in the MOE. It gets worse for Mr. Bennet when one considers that the 2008 breakdown (already skewed in presidential election years with more young and Latino voters than will vote in this midterm) is pure fantasy for CO Democrats in this cycle. Party ID in Colorado during 2004, the last good GOP turnout year, was measured at 38% GOP, 29% Democrat, and 39% Indy/Other. Even assuming a change in the CO electorate over 6 years, the Republican Party is clearly more energized this year, and the proof is in the primary pudding.

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Primary results in CO captured over 400K voters casting ballots for GOP Senate candidates, while a mere 338K voters cast ballots for the democrat candidates. For the algebraically-challenged, that's 20% more ballots cast for the GOP than the Dems. But surely that must be because the GOP side had a heated primary, while the Dems had a lackluster, already-decided primary, right? Nope. The incumbent Democrat senator had to fend off a fierce challenge from the CO state Speaker of the House, and attention was brought to the race with appearances from both POTUS Obama, on behalf of Bennet, and former Prez Bill Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion), who stumped for Bennet's opponent, Andrew Romanoff. But there's no way this GOP enthusiasm hangover can continue through November, correct? After all, the primary was so long ago, right? Actually, Colorado had one of the later primaries this year, in the early part of August - not even three months ago - so base GOP voters are likely roaring and ready to go, one can assume.

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For those that have read this far (and I really do appreciate it), let me do the math under a more realistic scenario than the 2008 turnout model. Just 10% more GOP voters to the polls than Democrats, while keeping the Dem %age at 30% and dropping Indies to a more realistic 37%, gives Ken Buck a 51-40.5 lead (assuming 81% support from each base and the same 23% lead among Indies for Buck), becoming a comfortable lead outside the MOE. Even worse for Bennet, if the same 20% more Republicans than Dems show up to vote as they did in the primaries, he trails about 52-39.5 under a very-energized-GOP scenario - with 6% still undecided! Now we're getting into real blowout range. Unless Democrats rally to Bennett, Indies flock in droves against the grain to vote Democrat at the last minute, and/or the GOP base sleeps through November 2, Ken Buck will be the next Colorado Senator, winning with room to spare. Bank on it.

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- AZDB

Applying PPP's Results To A Realistic Turnout Model

PPP released a poll today showing Carly behind Boxer by 52-43 and Whitman behind Brown 53-42. This assumes a fired up Democratic electorate that is exceeding its registration advantage (likely not, based on early voting and primary numbers) It assumes a D+13 electorate when registration is only D+12. Early voting and primary numbers both show a D+4 electorate. I create a D+5 electorate just in case.

PPP's Results:

D/R/I
Fiorina: 10/83/54
Boxer: 85/13/37

Whitman: 10/80/53
Brown: 86/14/39

Turnout: 47/34/19

So if Whitman and Fiorina are strong with Independents and you apply these same statistics to a more realistic turnout model:

D/R/I: 43/38/19

Carly 46.1
Boxer 48

That’s Boxer +1.9, similar to the advantage she has in early voting.

Meanwhile, for Whitman/Brown using the same turnout model:

Whitman 44.8
Brown 49.7

That’s Brown +4.9, similar to what we’re seeing from Survey USA.

Take partisan polls with a grain of salt.

Wave Elections: CA & WA 2010 = VA & MO 2006

The two key battleground states that will likely decide Senate control are California and Washington. Currently, the RCP average seperating Boxer and Fiorina is a mere 1.3 points and in Washington, Rossi is behind by 3.3 points. Polling in these two states is starting to mirror late-breaking states in 2006's midterms, where the Democrats were the challenging party and the Republicans were incumbents.

California has experienced consistent polling on two fronts. Incumbent Boxer (D) has been consistently under 50 percent and has posted consistent leads. We now see our first poll in a while that shows Fiorina pulling ahead 3 points on October 19. In the polls she still posts a deficit, Fiorina also has closed her margins and now the deficit is only 1 point in the RCP average.

This is very similar to the Virginia senate race in 2006 when now Senator Webb (D) defeated incumbent George Allen (R) by a tiny margin. What's interesting and similar is that aside from 2 polls in the summer, the incumbent Allen held the lead until Webb started to turn the race around last minute on October 20, 2006. Hopefully, Fiorina is able to follow the Webb trend and cruise to victory.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html#polls

Washington, on the other hand, has experienced see-sawing polling. One week, Rossi (R) will have the lead and the next a slew of polls show incumbent Murray (D) ahead.

This almost mirrors polling in Missouri's senate race in 2006 between Talent (R) and now Senator McCaskill (D).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/mo/missouri_senate_race-12.html#polls

This could be hopeful news for the Republicans, who are challenging incumbent Democrats.

The Importance of Strategic Voting

When discussing politics with people, you will, no doubt, encounter ideological voters. These type of voters cross all party lines. They vote without the knowledge of how everyone else is feeling/tilting. Not a smart move. When it's a blowout race, sure, go for the 3rd party or don't vote for the lesser of two evils. But when it's a close race, your vote matters that much more.

Get informed! And yes, numbers matter.

This is a bipartisan message.

2010 Senate Ratings: Overall Senate Still A Toss-Up

CA-Sen: Lean Dem to Toss-up (favors GOP)
CT-Sen: Toss-up to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
NY-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem (favors Dems)
WV-Sen: Toss-up to Lean GOP (favors GOP)

The GOP sees chances at Gilibrand's seat diminish this week, while CT moves away from GOP reach. Meanwhile, WV polling shows a strengthening position for Raese and and Fiorina gaining ground in CA.

Current Projections (October 1, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 14

Likely: 7

Lean: 5

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 1

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM DE (Open) NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WA (Murray)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) KY (Open) PA (Open) WV ' (Open)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

2010 Gov Ratings: Minor Movements

FL-Gov: Toss-up to Lean GOP (Favors GOP)
HI-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
NH-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
NM-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
NY-Gov: Lean Dem to Likely Dem (Favors Dems)

Current Projections (October 9, 2010):

GOP: 30

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 5

Lean: 7

Dem: 13

No Race: 7

Safe: 1

Likely: 2

Lean: 3

Toss-Ups: 7

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe)

LIKELY DEM CO (Open) NY (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) NH (Lynch) RI (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Open) HI (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) OR (Open) VT (Open)

LEAN GOP FL (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) OH (Strickland) TX (Perry) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) NM (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

2010 Gov Ratings: Uncertainty Prevails

Many events in the last month move our races:

CA-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)
HI-Gov: Safe Dem to Likely Dem (Favors GOP)
NY-Gov: Safe Dem to Lean Dem (Favors GOP)
ME-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
MN-Gov: Lean Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
NH-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
PA-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
RI-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
VT-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)

There are more toss-ups. The Dems move two Northeast seats and California in their favor, as the states regress back to their more liberal means. Primary wins put Hawaii and New York in more competitive categories in favor of the GOP while the GOP solidifies their lead in ME, NM and PA.

Current Projections (October 1, 2010):

GOP: 29

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 5

Lean: 6

Dem: 13

No Race: 7

Safe: 1

Likely: 2

Lean: 3

Toss-Ups: 8

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe)

LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) NY (Open) RI (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Open) FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) NH (Lynch) OR (Open) VT (Open)

LEAN GOP GA (Open) IL (Quinn) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) TX (Perry) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

2010 Senate Ratings: GOP & Dems Make Gains, It's A Wash

With a whole slew of events and latest polling, here are our current race ratings:

CA-Sen: Toss-up to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
CT-Sen: Lean Dem to Toss-up (favors GOP)
DE-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely Dem (favors Dems)
KY-Sen: Likely GOP to Lean GOP (favors Dems)
NC-Sen: Likely GOP to Safe GOP (favors GOP)
NH-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
NY-Sen: Likely Dem to Lean Dem (favors GOP)
WA-Sen: Lean GOP to Toss-up (favors Dems)
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
WV-Sen: Lean Dem to Toss-up (favors GOP)

Despite the political earthquake of Christine O'Donnell upset and the subsequent strengthening of the Democrat position in Delaware, the GOP makes significant gains in WV and WI. Overall, it's a wash and we're right back to where we were a few weeks ago. There are some minor movements with WA and CA's latest polling showing movement to Dems and a surprise in Kentucky (polling has tightened).

However, the GOP has put new seats into play with DioGuardi's strengthening position in New York. Connecticut is also now a toss-up race.

Current Projections (October 1, 2010):

GOP: 48

No Race: 23

Safe: 14

Likely: 7

Lean: 4

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 4

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM DE (Open)

LEAN DEM CA (Boxer) NY (Gilibrand)

TOSS UP CT (Open) NV (Reid) WA (Murray) WV ' (Open)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) KY (Open) PA (Open)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

The Bimbette Chronicles: Chapter 4

Harry Reid's "Penthouse" Pet
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According to Hot Air, embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D - Vegas Funeral Parlor) publicly gave what he thought were complimentary remarks toward appointed New York Senator Kirsten "Gilly" Gillibrand (D - Valley Girl). As the source reported:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had an unusual form of praise for New York’s junior senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, this morning at the fundraiser Mayor Bloomberg hosted for him at his townhouse – referring to her as “the hottest member” as she sat just a few feet away, according to three sources. The comment prompted Gillibrand to turn red, according to the sources, and created a bit of stir among the small crowd there. “It was pretty shocking when he said it,” said one source familiar with the remark and the reaction.

Shocking? From the guy who in the last year has insulted blacks, Latinos, and in just the last week, DemocRAT Senate nominee Chris Coons (Bearded Marxist - Dullaware)? Sounds like standard operating procedure from Rory Reid's father, who is locked in an intense battle for another term vs tea party favorite Sharon Angle.
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Anonymous, unnamed sources were able to get Ms. Gillibrand to explain what may be the background behind the comments by Godfather Reid. Said the first-term Senator (affectionately known as "Bimbette"), who would only comment publicly if she were granted anonymity ("OK, but only if you use just my first name, but not my last name or where I'm from."):

"We'll, you see, Harry is a very sweet man who sees himself as Hugh Hefner, smoking jacket and all. He's tried recruiting me to be his Holly Madison and wants me to be called his sweetie, but I'm too old for that now and want to be taken serial. I'm like, a Senator. You know? Why should I have to buff the Majority Leader's lobby, as Harry requested me one night? Anywho, I kept a poem he dropped by my desk - or was it slipped down my blouse? - which I then interpreted as a proposition. It reads:

Gilly came from out on Staten Island

In the Senate backroom she was everybody's darlin'

But she never left her bed

Even when she was giving Harry head

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She says, Hey babe

Take a walk on the wild side

I Said, Hey baby

Take a walk on the wild side

And the New York girls go

Doo do doo do doo do do doo..

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- BMBT

DE-Sen: What Happened There? I'll Tell Ya.

Though I made clear my opposition to O’Donnell's candidacy, I have to give props to anyone that can run a campaign and take down an institution like Castle. Such is the life of politics.

Nothing has changed but I will not badmouth her at this point and focus on her positives. I don’t believe in propping up candidates like O’Donnell. Yes, she’s a trainwreck. But she’s OUR trainwreck now and I stand by her.

WHY DID CASTLE LOSE?

I understand Delaware is a 33/33/33 type state but if there’s one group of people I blame for this loss, it’s the moderates who switched their registration to Independent from Republican and tipped the election to O’Donnell. If Moderates really cared about improving politics and finding their voice, they should have registered Republican and fought for influence in our party. Instead, they were lazy.

The fact that Independents couldn’t vote in the primary was their own doing. They switched, they abandoned the party so they have no say in the GOP. They put themselves in that situation. And when they were awakened to vote, it was too late. Everyone needs to be engaged in the political process if we want to reign in government.

Castle had no route by the time he realized it was a race. The movement was bigger than him or O’Donnell.

1. He could have ignored her and she would have won.

2. He could have told the RNC to chill out on their attacks and he would have looked weak.

3. He could have gone nastier and motivated the other side more.

Castle is a RINO (and I do not use that word in derogatory fashion) in that all these years, he’s been counting on I and D voters to put him in office.

The problem is that he and his Moderate base expected a coronation. Starting in 2009, he should have made voter efforts to reach moderate Independents and told them to register Republican. That was his only route to victory. But you don’t just neglect your state GOP and expect the remaining base (you have little in common with) to vote for you. That's bad business.

I hang it on Castle and the moderate movement that doesn’t know how to organize and just bitch/whine when things don’t go their way. The Cap/Trade vote was just one of many straws.

The primary tested his fortitude and the Castle had a shitty foundation.

THE NRSC STRATEGY

There are two wings: (1) the wing of "I hate the establishment (RNC, NRSC, etc). Incumbents must go down" and (2) the wing that is only concerned with winning races and getting more Republicans in. Both are flawed.

A lot on here are going to act like the RNC dumping her is such a mean thing to do. It is the wise, strategic thing to do.

“Oh, those damn RINOs!” I don’t subscribe to that simplistic crap some are espousing. The RNC is making the right move and letting the Tea Party do its thing. Both elements must work together and balance each other out to be effective causes. It’s easy to go and rewrite history, and say Brown’s wasn’t a Tea Party victory in Massachusetts. It was RNC and Tea Party working in perfect harmony to pull off the impossible.

I’ve met Cornyn and have heard his personal story. As you understand politics and people, you realize that perception is just that. It’s not necessarily reality. NRSC’s job is to win. Nothing personal.

NRSC steps out of the race and lets O’Donnell be the grassroots poster child, lets her raise copious amounts money and if she becomes competitive and if it’s financially viable, the NRSC comes in and helps OD cross the finish line. Contrary to what the Tea Party grassroots would claim, I doubt the NRSC is as emotionally invested. They have a job to do: it’s to win races. The prudent thing to do now is to modify your strategy and that’s what the NRSC is doing.

The people who cut checks to campaign causes are emotional voters. The ones that really want to stick it to the establishment and will take this statement as a personal affront. The NRSC knows that.

The worst thing they could do right now to dampen momentum is to endorse O’Donnell and ruin her “street cred” so to speak.

They will fall back in line if/when she raises enough to be competitive against Coons.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The best strategy for Republicans to take the Delaware seat is a dead one but for argument's sake, I'll lay it out. I would encourage Mike Castle to run as an Independent or write-in as this helps either him or O’Donnell win the seat (Castle would bring down Coons’ total for O’Donnell or cruise to victory himself).

However, that is moot as he has declined to do so and despite what many say here, I believe he is an honorable man as evidenced by the way he decided to stick to his moderate guns during his campaign. His concession speech will also give an insight into his character. He’s a true principled moderate, not like Crist or McCain, as much as most voters want to lump him in with the 2 aforementioned politicians drunk on power. You can put Murkowski in that mix.

I think O’Donnell is a very articulate woman. She is also a marketing expert. Little subtle things she did like put a black man behind her in the victory speech, the way she ran her primary, etc. She may win despite her resume.

Anyone who claims they know the November outcome and that she’ll definitely lose obviously doesn’t know politics and is full of crap.

Senate Battlegrounds: Metric Update

We present our metric's numbers for the key battleground Senate races. Republicans lead in 4 of the 6 races, are tied in 1, and the Democrat leads in Nevada.

Senate Battleground Races (September 10, 2010):

CA-Sen:

Fiorina (R) 46

Boxer (D) 46

Tie

CO-Sen:

Buck (R) 45

Bennett (D) 44

Buck +1

IL-Sen:

Kirk (R) 40

Giannoulias (D) 38

Kirk +2

NV-Sen:

Angle (R) 46

Reid (D) 47

Reid +1

WA-Sen:

Rossi (R) 48

Murray (D) 47

Rossi +1

WI-Sen:

Johnson (R) 46

Feingold (D) 45

Johnson +1

2010 Senate Ratings Change: FL/KY Move To Likely GOP, WV To Lean Dem

With latest polling from Rasmussen and Susquehanna, Rubio positions himself in a much stronger lead, pulling double digit margins over Charlie Crist (Republican-turned-Independent). As Crist's support implodes and Kendrick Meek hits his likely ceiling, we are moving our rating for FL to Likely GOP.

Rand Paul also consolidates a strong double digit over-50 lead in latest polling. We will not count RV polls in our analysis, or internal polls. This race is looking safer by the day. KY receives an upgrade to Likely GOP. This leaves NH as the only seat the Republicans could possibly be playing defense in. With next week's nomination, we will have a better idea where this race stands.

Latest Rasmussen polling shows Governor Manchin in a much weaker position than previously thought. He is only leading his challenger by 5 points. Though Rasmussen moves this race to a Tossup, we still believe the Dem is favored and move the rating from Likely Dem rightward to Lean Dem. This is subject to change as more polling is released from this race.

Current Projections (September 9, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 7

Lean: 6

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) WV ' (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) DE (Open) IL (Open) NH (Open) PA (Open) WA (Murray)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) KY (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr) OH (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

2010 Senate Ratings Change: WA Moves To GOP, OH Likely GOP

Our first update puts the GOP in a stronger position. Rasmussen joins Survey USA in predicting a narrow win for Dino Rossi in Washington state. Further polling in specific Congressional districts with Republicans in a great position have allowed us to move Washington to Lean GOP.

Latest polling showing high single digit leads for Ohio GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman, as well as support over 50 percent, have allowed us to move Ohio from Lean GOP to Likely GOP. His fundraising advantage, with millions more than Democrat Lee Fisher, and the nature of the electorate and wave this year, make it an easy call. The Democrats are defending too many seats and Ohio is not likely to see the funding Fisher needs to stay competitive.

Current Projections (September 4, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 5

Lean: 8

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 1

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM NY (Gilibrand) WV ' (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) DE (Open) FL (Open) IL (Open) KY (Open) NH (Open) PA (Open) WA (Murray)

LIKELY GOP IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr) OH (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

2010 Gov Ratings Change: NM, CA, CO Move

Our first update for the Governor's races includes 2 shifts in favor of the GOP and 1 shift in favor of the Democrats.

CO: The GOP civil war continues between scandal-ridden Maes and spoiler "Independent" Tancredo. Despite pressure for Republican nominee Maes to drop out of the race, he has made clear he is staying. This splits the conservative vote and despite the Democrat Hickenlooper's own scandals, he will likely cruise to victory. We move this race from Tossup to Likely Dem.

CA: Meg Whitman pulls away to a solid 7 point lead in 2 of our most reputable pollster's latest surveys (Survey USA and Rasmussen). She looks likely to hold the Governor's mansion for Republicans in California. We move this from Tossup to Lean GOP.

NM: A similar situation in polling shows Republican Susana Martinez leading Democrat Diane Denish, including in local Registered Voter polls. This does not bode well for the Democrats and this is looking more and more like a GOP pickup by the day. We move this race from Tossup to Lean GOP.


Current Projections (September 4, 2010):

GOP: 31

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 3

Lean: 10

Dem: 14

No Race: 7

Safe: 2

Likely: 3

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 5

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe) NY (Open)

LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open) NH (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) MN (Open)

TOSS UP FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) OR (Open) RI (Open)

LEAN GOP CA (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) ME (Open) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) PA (Open) TX (Perry) VT (Open) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) MI (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)