Sunday, May 9, 2010

KY-Sen Primary: Paul, Mongiardo Lead

Kentucky Senate (Republican Primary)

Rand Paul 44%
Trey Grayson 29%
Undecided 27%

Paul +15%

Kentucky Senate (Democratic Primary)

Daniel Mongiardo 37%
Jack Conway 29%
Bill Johnson 4%
Undecided 30%

Mongiardo +8%

Race News:
Nothing has changed in the KY-Sen primary on the Republican side. Despite ramped up advertising by Greyson, Paul maintains a healthy 15 point advantage.

On the Democrats' side, Mongiardo's numbers have come down slightly but still commands an 8 percent lead over Conway. Conway's base of support has not actually increased as much as Mongiardo's coming down. 30 percent of the Democratic electorate is still undecided. This has the potential to get interesting.

The primary election is in nine days, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)


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