Jackass of the Week

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Joe Sestak (D - Penn)

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Amazing how nobody can get his story straight and just how divergent those stories have become. First Congressman Joe Sestak openly brags about how couldn't be bought off with a job offered by the Obama White House if he would just fold his tent in his bid to knock off incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D...no, R...no, no, D - PA). And not just any job, mind you. Secretary of the U.S. Navy, he claims. No small potatoes here.

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Then, in the blue corner, Team Obama claims that no, Joe's just a little over his head. He was never offered a job to drop out of the race. Because Mr. Harvard Law Review knows that such an offer is akin to bribery, a felony. An impeachable offense if the Congress deems it such. So no, Joe was mistaken. Nobody in the Obama White House offered him a job. That's the ticket. Move on folks, nothing to see here.

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Now enter Slick Willie Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion) to smooth over the mess that just wouldn't go away. Who better to take the rap for the whole mess than the disbarred, congenital-liar former President? Now Obama/Clinton want us to believe it was Clinton that went to Sestak to offer the unpaid position as member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. Quite a detour from Secretary of the Navy it appears. Add to it the punchline that Joe wasn't even eligible for the position he was reportedly offered (by being a sitting member of Congress), according to Byron York of The Washington Examiner. .

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But Joe has taken the high moral ground by saying "I told President Clinton that my only consideration in getting into the Senate race or not was whether it was the right thing to do for Pennsylvania working families and not any offer.” Apparently BJ Clinton would never be confused with Don Corleone: Clinton makes an offer that Joe CAN refuse. And Sestak's still breathing days later. It appears the Clinton charm has worn off over the years..

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Unfortunately for Mr. Sestak, this story will not go away, as it has sucked in both a former president and the current POTUS. And either the Congressman is telling the truth & both Presidents are lying (hardly a stretch on both), or he is lying about the nature of the job offer and is now open to an array attacks by his November opponent, Pat Toomey. Even worse, the lamestream media is asking some tough questions, as White House spokesman Robert Gibbs tries to change the subject as quick as possible. Next step in the DemocRAT formula to get past this: pin blame on George W Bush. After all, he's traveled through Pennsylvania numerous times, so his fingerprints have to be on this scandal somehow. Joe has just been too slow off the draw to shift the blame away from himself . He should learn a lesson from his potential Senate colleague, Richard Blumenthal, who knows the drill and isn't afraid to go on the attack himself. After all, like Sestak, he knows how deadly combat can be, having seen it firsthand.

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Joe Sestak is still playing the political game here like it's for chairman of the Philly city council. Instead he's nominee of the DemocRAT Party for U.S. Senate, a seat his party can ill-afford to lose. And on a personal level, he's making this a contest between himself and the Chicago Machine, which has squashed much bigger bugs than Mr. Sestak in the past as a matter of routine. Unless Joe gets his story straight with the Obama admin & learns how to play ball, he can look forward to a nice spot underneath the Obama bus. Enjoy the ride, Joe.

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- AZDB

Governor Palin: Announce Now

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Sarah Palin should announce her 2012 presidential run. Right now. Not wait for the post-midterm-election, normal political "calculation" on when to announce her candidacy. Not faux-run and posture like they all do. Not wait for the Tea Party's rise and/or fall to see where the chips land.

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When Obama and Palin went tit-for-tat weeks ago on nuclear policy, one might make the assumption the President was egging the Governor on; and if that is the case then you might assume that Palin threw it right back at him. What is a greater show of weakness? Hosting your own personal League of Nations to chat nuclear disarmament, or engaging a governor who at this point is only your 2012 election opponent in theory? And Palin won the public relations battle.....decisively.

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Obama is in campaign mode he hopes until the latter part of 2015. With that, this year's campaign will be a clear referendum on "change we can believe in." Here is a change that most Americans would probably enjoy: Palin throwing out the notion of political "calculus," and reinventing it by announcing her candidacy. Why not? The non-radio-talk-show mainstream media have gone out of their way to portray her as a dimwitted, unqualified neophyte; and not only is Palin still standing but she is getting the President to engage her on foreign policy. Obama could not possibly be dumb enough to engage her again until he would absolutely have to in 2012.

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So now that the mainstream media has failed in their portrayal of Palin, it is onto the Tea Party, which they are going out of their way to portray as illegitimate. The Tea Party, which adores her, is quite obviously anything but illegitimate, and it is possible and maybe even probable they will succeed in moving the Republican Party sufficiently to the right. In that case, booey for Palin, who will easily glide past the likes of Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, et al. in the party.

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But what if they do not succeed? What if the Republican establishment succeeds in keeping the party at the center-right position where it now resides? This could be the only prickly point for Palin if she announces "early." Or would it? The grassroots movement that is the Tea Party has established and organized itself to the point now where it really only needs a national spokesman to legitimize itself as a viable third party. Who else other than Palin?

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So again, why wouldn't Palin announce her candidacy right now? The Tea Party, to the chagrin of many media members, clearly is not going anywhere. Obama gift-wrapped her a platform to exercise her foreign policy chops. She is coming off multiple, high-exposure events including her most impacting speech to date at the Southern Conservative Leadership Conference. It comes down to her personal stock in political "calculation." She just seems above it. With the President himself obviously living in a world ruled by his own reelection "calculations," Palin should throw out the calculations and announce her candidacy by claiming, "No, Mr. President, this is change we can believe in."

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- RDS

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - California

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Next in our continuing "50 Best" series, and with much anticipation, we honor the hugely-important Golden State of California. Unlike the previous honoree Arkansas, which is rather new to the GOP brand after generations of reflexive Democrat voting, Cali offers numerous impressive GOP stories over the last 50 years. No doubt some of the potential honorable mentions would tower over the best representative in many of the smaller, less politically important states of the Union. But we're talking the massive state of Cali-freaking-fornia here. Over the last 50 years, the state has given the nation, on the Republican side alone, two future Presidents, 4 governors (all elected to multiple terms), two Supreme Court Justices (one of which was a former governor), 5 elected Senators, including a Majority Whip and a Minority Whip, and dozens of congressmen with decades of seniority on some of the heavyweight committees. The notion that Dick Nixon, Pete Wilson, Arnold S, and Earl Warren, among others, get kicked to the curb is testament to both the strength of the overall field, and how powerful the eventual honoree is.

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With such a dramatic buildup (I know the suspense is killing all of you), the winner is...
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Ronald Reagan - Former Governor and 40th President of the United States

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Dubbed by his detractors and Washington insiders as just a novice, B-movie actor, Ronald Reagan's new career in politics took off after his "Time for Choosing" speech on behalf of 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater. Reagan, himself a former Democrat who claimed that the party left him instead of vice versa, gave what might be the most famous broadcasted political speech by an unelected citizen on October 27, 1964. The speech laid out his ideological conservative vision for smaller government, and complemented the summer convention speech given by Goldwater in San Francisco. The rest, as they say, is history.

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Given almost no chance at the outset of his campaign to defeat the popular incumbent Edmund G "Pat" Brown in the 1966 California Governor's race, Reagan stunned the establishments of both parties will an incredible 16% victory, which amounted to almost a 1 million vote margin. After a rocky, but successful first term which included conflicts with the late-60s protest movement on university campuses, Reagan handily won reelection to a 2nd term in 1970, defeating Democrat sacrificial lamb Jesse M Unruh.

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After his next term completed in 1975, Reagan spent a period in the so-called political wilderness before mounting an underdog campaign to unseat incumbent president Gerald Ford in the 1976 GOP Primary. Although he won a number of primaries later in the race, Reagan lost the nomination by a razor-thin margin: Ford's 1,187 delegates to Reagan's 1,070. After Ford lost a close race in the fall to Jimmy Carter, Reagan was set up comfortably to be the GOP heir-apparent in 1980, much to the chagrin of the Republican Party establishment. The malaise of the late 70s under Jimmy Carter, topped off by the weakness shown to the world via the Iran hostage crisis, was all the country could stand though, as Reagan defeated another incumbent handily, - this time in a three-way race - 50% for The Gipper to 41% for Carter.

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Four years later it was "Morning in America," as Reagan continued his string of blowout victories, this time winning 49 of 50 states, 525 out of 538 electoral votes, and 59% national vote over Walter "Fritz" Mondale in 1984. No modern candidate of any party has seen such electoral success on a national scale over the last 50 years. His legacy includes a voting block that was termed "Reagan Democrats," named for the more blue-collar, culturally conservative, middle-class voters that crossed over in droves to vote for the "Great Communicator" instead of his more liberal opponents. He is also the first President since Andrew Jackson whose Vice President succeeded him by victory, not because of death. Many experts concede that George Bush Sr. won in large part as an extended 3rd term of his former running mate.

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Though Reagan was succeeded as California Governor by the Democrat son of the man he defeated just eight years earlier, he laid the groundwork for future GOP success in the governors office in then 80s and 90s, as the party held the seat for 16 consecutive years. Reagan's electoral success in the state and helping keep the office GOP hands for so long are impressive accomplishments in a state that had billed itself from the 60s - forward as a "progressive" one.

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For all his electoral accomplishments and his keeping the GOP brand in such good shape throughout the 80s and 90s both nationally and statewide, Ronald Wilson Reagan earns California's entry into the "50 Best" Electionology series.

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Honorable Mention: Former Governor and Senator Pete Wilson; 1960 GOP Prez nominee, former President and VP, Richard Nixon.

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Next Week: Colorado

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- 50 Best

Jackass of the Week

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"Agent Orange" Richard Blumenthal

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By now, only political junkies living under a rock haven't heard the bombshell (Please pardon the numerous battle terms that are sure to follow.) story broken by the New York Times, which unearthed that prior claims by current AG and 2010 Senate candidate Dick Blumenthal (D - CONN) that he served in the Vietnam War were patently false. On numerous instances he wrapped himself in the service of real Vietnam soldiers, using the word "we" when describing the return of soldiers back to the states after service. And he has a documented history of saying he served "in" Vietnam, instead of "during" the Vietnam War years. (What is it about Democrats, and ones that spent years as lawyers learning to parse words, that we are supposed to believe they get confused on the use of the smallest, simplest words like "in" and "is?"). Though he never claimed he was on the front lines during the Tet Offensive or spent Christmas in Cambodia like a former recent presidential candidate, Mr. Blumenthal had skated through his political career with supporters and media alike (I repeat myself, sorry.) believing he had honorably served overseas IN the Vietnam War, not just doing his part in the Reserves thousands of miles away.

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Quick: What does a good, high-profile DemocRAT do when caught embellishing his military record? Take his medicine like a man, apologize for lying all these years, then bow out gracefully? Of course not. The key word in the question was "DemocRAT." The patented strategy for this area of crisis management is as follows. 1) Claim the story a "hit piece," the charges are false, and most importantly, you, the honest Democrat, are victim of a malicious smear. 2) Call a press conference or another organized event whereby you can surround yourself with American flags and military veterans, authentic and/or phony (More on that in a minute.). 3) Insist you always told the truth, except on a few occasions where you "misspoke" or "misplaced words" that NEVER were intended to mislead anyone about the nature of your service. 4) Feign outrage that anyone would dare question your character, integrity, and service to the country while wearing any military uniform. And finally, 5) Remind everyone that the most important thing you have to do is return to doing the hard work "the people" demand. After following this recipe, any further investigations into the story become about "old news," and the investigators part of the "right-wing attack machine."

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But what makes Mr. Blumental more than an ordinary Jackass on the heels of this story is that at least one of his surrounding "veterans" at his pathetic presser the other day was an already-outed phony soldier. The gentleman circled in red to Blumenthal's back right is actually William Joseph Trumpower, aka Elliott Storm.

Although he is an actual Vietnam vet, POW Network’s Phony Vets Database lists that Mr. Storm (or Trumpower, or Whats-his-face) claims a Bronze Star with Valor he never earned and a rank he never reached (claiming 2nd Lt.). Per the Database for Mr. Shitstorm: ACTUAL – National Defense Service Medal, Vietnam Campaign Medal, Vietnam Service Medal, Combat Action Ribbon, Purple Heart w/1*. Served 11 Oct 1968 to 30 Jan 1970 as a USMC rifleman (MOS 0311). Has enlisted service number (not officer’s).

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And as a kicker, it turns out this phony soldier didn't just independently show up to offer his support to an embattled Blumenthal. According to The New Haven Independent,

Elliott Storm is a Blumenthal supporter. The campaign called him and asked him to show up; he called up his friends in the “Vet Pack” to join him, friends who, like him, travel around the country talking about ex-soldiers who contend with post traumatic stress syndrome.

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Dick Blumenthal (who bears a strange resemblance to former NY Gov Elliot Spitzer), once the apple of Conn Dems eye after saving them from certain defeat of now-retiring Senator Chris Dodd, took a seat that was a lock to be retained by his party and likely to kept by him for as long as he wanted and made it a horse race for the fall, no matter who his GOP opponent. His non-apology apology that doubled down on arrogance, coupled with recruiting a press conference prop that is also a proven liar, and then expecting Connecticut voters to look past the entire matter and bless him with a U.S. Senate seat, rightfully earns Connecticut AG Richard Blumenthal our Jackass of the Week.
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- AZDB

Post-Game Analysis: HI-01

HI-01 (Special):
Metric: Djou 37 - Case 27 - Hanabusa 24 (Djou +10)
Final: Djou 40 - Hanabusa 31 - Case 28 (Djou +10)

Our metric nailed the margin. We allocated undecideds and we overstated Djou's win by 7 points. Surprisingly, despite the strange nature of the race (mail in ballots only), and a surprisingly high participation (54%), Merriman did a good job nailing Djou's level of support and seeing Case's support drop in the last few weeks. Merriman was the only pollster to have Hanabusa 2nd, albeit with a tie.

Most Accurate Pollster: Merriman - Djou 40 - Hanabusa 26 - Case 26 (Djou +14)

Post-Game Analysis

Primary and special election polling is usually unreliable and erratic and this Tuesday, it was no exception. We declined to allocate undecideds in most of the primaries, due to erratic polling. Our metric was off by 8 points at most, which made the difference in close races such as PA-12 (special), KY-Sen (Dem) and PA-Sen (Dem). We called every other winner.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

KY-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Paul 51 - Greyson 32 (Paul +19)
Final: Paul 59 - Greyson 35 (Paul +24)

Our metric was off by 5 points. We allocated undecideds and were off by only 2 points. But overall, the pollsters, even the best in the business, missed the margin. Magellan, a partisan firm, surprisingly nailed the "Rand-slide".

Most Accurate Pollster: Magellan (R) - Paul 55 - Greyson 30 (Paul +25)

KY-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Mongiardo 38 - Conway 34 (Mongiardo +4)
Final: Conway 44 - Mongiardo 43 (Conway +1)

Our metric was off by 5 points. We declined to allocate undecideds in this race. Conway surged just a few weeks before election day and hit a wall. But he managed to squeak through with a 1 percent win and was arguably the 2nd most shocking outcome of Tuesday. No one showed Conway with a lead, but Survey USA did show a 1 point race.

Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Mongiardo 38 - Conway 37 (Mongiardo +1)

PA-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Specter 43 - Sestak 42 (Specter +0)
Final: Sestak 54 - Specter 46 (Sestak +8)

Our metric was off by 8 points. Specter led most polls and in the last week, showed a consolidation of his base, but that wasn't enough. The undecideds broke for Sestak in a big way. Heavy rain in Philadelphia suppressed turnout for Specter and his opponent's performance may have been overstated. Suffolk almost nailed the result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Suffolk - Sestak 49 - Specter 40 (Sestak +9)

PA-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Onorato 36 - Wagner 10 (Onorato +26)
Final: Onorato 45 - Wagner 24 (Onorato +21)

No surprises here. Our metric was off 5 points, but accurately predicted a win for Onorato in the 20's. Polling was all over the map. Rasmussen came closest but they were still 4 points off.

Most Accurate Pollster: Rasmussen - Onorato 34 - Wagner 17 (Onorato +17)

AR-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Lincoln 44 - Halter 34 (Lincoln +10)
Final: Lincoln 45 - Halter 43 (Lincoln +2)

Our metric was off 8 points. The surprises here lay with the margin of victory. Almost all pollsters showed a huge lead for Blanche Lincoln. Talk Business was the most conservative in its estimate for Lincoln's lead, but they were still 5 points off the final result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Lincoln 38 - Halter 31 (Lincoln +7)


AR-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Boozman 46 - Holt 14 (Boozman +32)
Final: Boozman 53 - Holt 17 (Boozman +36)

Our metric was off 4 points. Talk Business did a great job in the GOP side. They were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Boozman 46 - Holt 8 (Boozman +38)

OR-Gov (GOP):
Metric: Dudley 39 - Alley 23 (Dudley +16)
Final: Dudley 40 - Alley 32 (Dudley +8)

Our metric was off 8 points. Survey USA, the nation's most reputable pollster, was surprisingly off. They overstated Dudley's support in a big way. Portland Tribune's poll, conducted around the same time, nailed the margin much better and were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Portland Tribune - Dudley 33 - Alley 23 (Dudley +10)

OR-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Kitzhaber 57 - Bradbury 24 (Kitzhaber +33)
Final: Kitzhaber 66 - Bradbury 30 (Kitzhaber +36)

Our metric was off by 3 points. Survey USA nailed the Dem side of the Governor race. They were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Kitzhaber 59 - Bradbury 25 (Kitzhaber +34)

PA-12:
Metric: Burns 45 - Critz 45 (Tie)
Final: Critz 53 - Burns 45 (Critz + 8)

The metric was off by 8 points in this special election. PPP released the last poll of the cycle, showing a Burns lead of 1 point. Our metric actually showed a very slight Critz win, but we decided to allocate the undecideds and gave Burns an edge. The heated primary between Sestak and Specter drove up turnout in the district and Critz won by 8 points, essentially picking up 100% of undecideds according to the metric. None of the recent polling nailed the race, but a month old poll from Global Strategy nailed the final result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Global Strategy - Critz 45 - Burns 37 (Critz +8)

Live Blogging: Election Results

All times are EDT.

22:59
AR: 38% in. Lincoln leads 44-42. Boozman leads 50-16.

22:30
AR: 20% in. Lincoln leads 48-39. Boozman leads 52-16.
PA-12: Critz wins special election. Burns concedes.
22:27
PA-12: 76% in. Critz leads 54-44.

22:16
Let's re-cap the winners:

PA-Gov:
Corbett (R) vs. Onorato (D)

PA-Sen:
Toomey (R) vs. Sestak (D)

KY-Sen:
Paul (R) vs. Conway (D)

Now, on to AR and OR.
22:14
PA: AP declares Sestak winner of PA Democratic primary.
22:11
PA-12: 51% in. Critz leads 55-43.
22:06
AR: 6% in. Lincoln leads 50-38. Boozman leads 52-14.
PA: 53% in. Sestak leads 53-47.
22:04
KY: Conway declared winner in Dem primary. Wins 44-43. He will face off Rand Paul in November.
21:52
KY: 96% in. Conway leads 44-43.
PA: 40% in. Sestak now leads 51-49. Most of Philadelphia has reported (Specter's stronghold). Sestak likely to take the nomination.
21:49
PA: 37% in. Sestak takes a slim lead for the first time, but still tied 50-50.
21:46
PA: 36% in. Specter and Sestak still tied 50-50.
21:42
PA: AP declares Corbett winner in GOP Governor primary. No surprise there.
PA-12: 13% in. Democrat Critz leads 59-39.
21:35
PA: 30% in. Specter and Sestak tied 50-50.
21:30
KY: 90% in. Conway leads 45-43.
PA: 24% in. Specter leads 51-49. Sestak is closing in.
21:24
AR: 1% in. Lincoln leads 48-40. Boozman leads 51-14.
KY: 87% in. Conway leads 45-42.
PA: 19% in. Specter leads 52-48.
21:06
KY: 83% in. Conway leads 46-41.
PA: 11% in. Specter leads 55-45.
20:54
PA: 3% in. Specter leads 65-35.
20:48
KY: 74% in. Conway leads 47-41. Mongiardo closing in. Too close to call at this point.
20:39
AR: Early returns show Lincoln ahead 43-41. Boozman leads 35-22.
20:35
PA: Less than 1% in. Specter ahead of Sestak 66-34.
20:33
AR: Polls have just closed.
PA: Corbett and Toomey lead on the GOP side (no surprises). We probably won't report on these sure winners.
20:32
KY: 60% in. Conway leads 47.7-40.2.
PA: Polls have closed. Results coming in.
20:17
KY: 49% in. Conway leads 48.2-39.7
20:05
KY: 42% in. Conway leads 48.7-39.3.
20:01
KY: 41% in. Conway leads 49.0-39.1. Lead is shrinking.
19:47
Rand Paul declared winner by AP.
19:46
KY: 36% in. Paul leads 58.9-36.5. Conway leads 48.6-38.9.
19:37
KY: 26% in. Paul leads 58.3-37.1. Conway leads 49.6-37.8.
19:29
KY: 16% in. Paul leads 51.6-34.0. Conway leads 47.0-40.3.
19:22
KY: 14% in. Paul leads 51.5-33.9. Conway leads 46.7-40.4.
19:17
KY: 13% in. Paul leads 51.3-33.6. Conway leads 47.2-40.0. The Democrat side is fluctuating wildly.

PA-Gov: Onorato Leads Crowded Dem Field Comfortably

5/17/10
Pennsylvania Governor (Republican Primary)

Tom Corbett (Unchallenged)

Pennyslvania Governor (Democratic Primary)

Dan Onorato 36%
Jack Wagner 10%
Anthony Williams 10%
Joe Hoeffel 8%
Undecided 36%

Onorato +26%

Race News:
Like Oregon, there are no real surprises in the open primary fields of both parties in Pennsylvania.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18. (Posting this at 2:27 AM PDT, so technically the election is today)

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

OR-Gov: Dudley Leads GOP Field, Kitzhaber Leads Dems

5/17/10
Oregon Governor (Republican Primary)

Chris Dudley 39%
Allen Alley 23%
John Lim 8%
Bill Sizemore 7%
Other 4%
Undecided 19%

Dudley +16%

Oregon Governor (Democratic Primary)

John Kitzhaber 57%
Bill Bradbury 24%
Roger Obrist 3%
Undecided 16%

Kitzhaber +33%

Race News:
With minimal polling, we do have clear winners in the Gubernatorial primaries in Oregon. Former NBA player Chris Dudley towers over the GOP field, while former Governor John Kitzhaber leads the Democratic field with a clear majority.

There should be no surprises tomorrow in the Oregon gubernatorial primary.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

HI-01: Djou Leads By Double Digits

5/17/10
HI-01 (Special Election)

Charles Djou (R) 37%
Ed Case (D) 27%
Colleen Hanabusa 24%
Undecided 12%

Djou +10%


Race News:
The DNC pulls out of the Hawaii's first district race, signaling a momentum by Djou. In our current analysis, he increases his lead over Ed Case by double digits. Among those who have voted, according to the latest Merriman River Group poll, Djou garners 45% support.

After we allocate our undecided voters, we find a very similar model to the early voting patterns:

Charles Djou (R) 46%
Ed Case (D) 29%
Colleen Hanabusa 26%

Djou +17%

The special election is happening now via mail and ballots will be accepted for another five days, till May 22 at 6 PM. Voting centers are open from May 10 to May 21, but will be closed on May 22.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

AR-Sen Primary: Lincoln, Boozman Likely To Avoid Runoff

5/17/10
Arkansas Senate (Republican Primary)

John Boozman 46%
Jim Holt 14%
Gilbert Baker 12%
Kim Hendren 4%
Other 7%
Undecided 17%

Boozman +32%

Arkansas Senate (Democratic Primary)

Blanche Lincoln (inc) 44%
Bill Halter 34%
D.C. Morrisson 4%
Undecided 18%

Lincoln +10%

Race News:
Polling has been scarce on the AR GOP Primary, but the metric shows John Boozman with a clear 32% lead over Jim Holt. Holt is even polling ahead of once-frontrunner Gilbert Baker. Boozman only needs to pick up 4% of the pool of 17% undecideds to avoid a runoff. The numbers are on his side.

Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is consolidating her support and looks set to win her primary. If she doesn't reach 50%, there will be a runoff, but with a solid 44 percent of support, she only needs to pick up a third, 6% of the 18% of undecideds to win this without a runoff. This is likely to happen tomorrow.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

PA-Sen Primary: Statistical Tie, Slight Edge To Specter

5/17/10
Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)

Pat Toomey (Unchallenged)

Pennsylvania Senate (Democratic Primary)

Arlen Specter (inc) 42.5%
Joe Sestak 42.1%
Undecided/Other 15.4%

Specter +0.4%

Race News:

The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be a real nailbiter. Incumbent Arlen Specter is ahead according to the metric, despite a surge by Sestak which eventually stalled mid-week. We will not make a prediction on allocating undecideds and will allocate evenly, predicting Specter will narrowly pull this one out by around 1%.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

KY-Sen Primary: Paul has Majority, Mongarido with Slight Lead

5/17/10
Kentucky Senate (Republican Primary)

Rand Paul 51%
Trey Grayson 32%
Undecided 17%

Paul +19%

Kentucky Senate (Democratic Primary)

Daniel Mongiardo 38%
Jack Conway 34%
Undecided/Other 28%

Mongiardo +4%

Race News:

There are 17% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:

Rand Paul 61%
Trey Greyson 39%

Paul +22

Minds are made up in the Republican primary. Rand Paul is over 50% with a clear majority on his side.

The Democrats, on the other hand, remain largely undecided. We will not make any allocations on the undecideds but instead give a slight edge to Mongiardo.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

PA-12: Toss-Up - Slight Edge To GOP

5/17/10
PA-12 (Special Election)

Tim Burns (R) 45%
Mark Critz (D) 45%
Undecided 10%

Race News:

There are 10% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:

Tim Burns (R) 51%
Mark Critz (D) 49%

Burns +2

A week is an eternity in politics. Just a week ago, it looked like the Republican was sure to pick up this seat, due to the nature of the special election and the district's demographics. However, with the primary election for Senate held the same day, a heated primary on the Democratic side between incumbent Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, is putting more attention to this race, mostly from Democrats. Pollsters disagree on the extent of this event's effect on the turnout model.

Burns, the Republican, is leading in the latest poll, done by PPP, a Democratic pollster. He consistently receives about 20 percent of Democrats, has double digit leads with Independents and consolidates his Republican base. Similar models have given Republicans Scott Brown, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's races, despite significant disadvantages in registration in those states. We will likely see a similar scenario with Burns, but will not be surprised if Critz prevails.

This will be a true test of the Get-Out-The-Vote mechanisms of both parties.

The special election is tomorrow, on May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

Jackass of the Week

Suzan Hebson, Assistant Superintendent of Highland Park, Ill., School District 113

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Ms. Hebson is the school bureaucrat that squashed plans for the Highland Park High School girls basketball team by declaring her own boycott of Arizona. The team was scheduled to compete in a tournament in AZ next December, but its trip has been cancelled in the wake of the recently-passed immigration enforcement bill in the Grand Canyon state. Nothing like letting personal political views interfere with sports, and using a bunch of teenage girls as pawns in your vendetta. Way to outrage parents and residents of the district with such a petty decision, one made without consultation of the effected parties involved. And nice hypocrisy too, as this school is still open to trips to China, a country whose human rights record and attitude toward the worth of females in general is hardly one to embody. That's political correctness for the education industrial complex: Communist China is one to emulate & respect, while the great state of Arizona deserves consternation and long-distance boycotts. Up is down, right is left, night is day..

Not that wizard-of-smart Hebson (Anyone care to lay bets on which political party she is registered with currently?) has never been a stranger to injecting herself into political controversy. According to FoxNews.com,

The school official who nixed a girls' high school basketball team's planned trip to Arizona once supported a controversial program that required ninth-graders to attend a “freshman advisory” class at which gay upperclassmen shared stories of their high school experiences. Parents who were unhappy with the class were even more outraged to learn that students who attended were asked to sign a statement promising not to tell others -- including their parents -- about what was said in class...

In 2007, when she was assistant superintendent for human resources in the district, Hebson made national news for supporting an initiative at Deerfield High School that required freshman students to participate in orientation panel discussions, one of which was led by members of the school’s Straight and Gay Alliance Network. During the seminars, upperclassmen spoke to the ninth graders about a variety of topics affecting homosexual teens, including their own personal experiences -- and all students were required to sign confidentiality agreements swearing never to disclose what they heard.

Parents were not allowed to attend the panel discussions, leading some to call it an attempt to indoctrinate students into a homosexual lifestyle.

...The following year, Hebson was made principal of Deerfield High School, where she became embroiled in another controversy — this time related to the inclusion of the play “Angels in America: A Gay Fantasia on National Themes” in students’ required reading material.

Parents were alarmed by the book’s explicit content, which includes highly offensive racial slurs, vivid depictions of gay sex and a sexually explicit scene involving Mother Teresa.

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Those who can't do, teach. And apparently many that can't teach become school administrators. Hopefully the community around Highland Park High will rally and raise enough funds, via bake sales, car washes, and other such activities, to send the ladies to Arizona to compete. Until then, they can thank not-so-super-intendent Hebson for injecting politics (those with views on the Arizona immigration bill which are in the clear minority, according to every poll this side of American Idol) into the area of high school girls sports. Letters of protest from concerned citizens to Suzan Hebson should thus begin with the salutation "Dear Jackass of the Week..."

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- AZDB

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - Arkansas

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Next in our continuing "50 Best" series, we honor the Razorback state of Arkansas. Historically known for the successes of some powerful Democrats, such as former president Bill Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion) and his political mentor J. William Fulbright, Arkansas Republicans had seen rare victories until recently. Until one-termer Tim Hutchinson, the GOP hadn't had a U.S. Senator representing the state in 120 years. And for 92 years up until 1967 Arkansas didn't have a single U.S. Rep under the GOP banner. That is, until John Paul Hammerschmidt, who went on to represent Arkansas' 3rd Congressional district for 13 terms until his retirement in 1993.

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Arkansas: If I Had a Hammerschmidt

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Hammerschmidt was born in Harrison, which is tucked in NW Arkansas, in 1922. He founded the Hammerschmidt Lumber Company and became its president. He was also president of the Construction Products Company and the president of the Arkansas Lumber Dealers Association and the Southwestern Lumberman's Association (wiki/John_P._Hammerschmidt).

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Hammerschmidt was a delegate to the Republican National Conventions in 1964, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1984. He was twice the state chairman of the Arkansas Republican State Central Committee, having served from 1964 to 1966 and again from 2002-2004 (ibid). Since retiring from Congress, he has continued public service by chairing the Northwest Arkansas Council and the March of Dimes Arkansas Citizen of the Year Dinner (www.northark.edu/), as well as serving on boards of directors for several corporations and as Trustee for two different Arkansas universities . Although that resume is impressive in its own right, it was his electoral success as a Republican in a historically-stubborn Democrat state that earns him our "50 Best" honor.
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In 1966, Hammerschmidt was the Republican nominee for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district, located in the northwestern part of the state. He defeated incumbent James William Trimble by over 9,000 votes and thus became the first Republican to represent Arkansas since Reconstruction. AR-3 has always been a somewhat conservative district and has only voted Democrat for president twice since 1952, so he was a good fit ideologically. Although he won all but two of his races by a 2-to-1 margin, the closest campaign of his 13 races came in the GOP bloodbath of 1974, in which the party had to lick it wounds in the wake of Watergate. In that race he would defeat a 28-year-old University of Arkansas law professor and relative unknown, Bill Clinton, by only several thousand votes. Hammerschmidt faced criticism from the young upstart for being one of the few Republicans to stand by Richard Nixon following the explosion of the Watergate scandal (wiki). Ironically, the Congressman would retire from elective office the same year his 1974 opponent would be sworn in 42nd President of the United States, not having a chance to vote against any of Mr. Clinton's ambitious and polarizing agenda.

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Since Hammerschmidt's 1966 election to CONgress, Arkansas has seen six more Republicans represent the state (in 3 of its 5 districts). One could argue that he softened the GOP brand in the state which had been a party wasteland for over a century. Also, in 1978, Hammerschmidt faced token opposition from real estate broker William C. Mears and used his election resources to help the Republican gubernatorial nominee, A. Lynn Lowe, win in Boone County. For his unprecedented success in the state as a Republican, his relative ease in winning reelection twelve times, his defeat of a future POTUS (to whom campaigning was like swimming was to sharks), and for improvement of the GOP brand under his watch, John Paul Hammerschmidt earns the honor of the best GOP success story from Arkansas over the last 50 years.

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Honorable Mention: Former Governor Mike Huckabee; former Congressman, Admin of the DEA, and undersecretary for Homeland Security, Asa Hutchinson.

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Next Week: California, here we come.

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- 50 Best

PA-Sen Primary: Sestak Surge Questionable

5/12/10
Pennsylvania (Democratic Primary)

Arlen Specter (D-inc) 45%
Joe Sestak 41%
Undecided 14%

Specter +4%

Race News:
Despite a good last few days of polling for Democratic primary challenger Joe Sestak, Arlen Specter seems to be consolidating his base just fine. With all the recent polling, some polls showing Sestak ahead, we're still seeing a fairly stable 4 percent lead for Specter with Sestak's numbers essentially unmoved from Sunday. We will take one more look at the race but we're still giving a slight advantage for Specter at this point.

The primary election is in six days, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

IL-Sen: Kirk Moves To The Lead

5/11/10
IL-Sen

Mark Kirk (R) 42%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%
Undecided 20%

Kirk +4%


Race News:
The Broadway Bank scandal has taken its toll on Democrat Alexi Giannoulias's credibility. As news of this scandal blankets the media, Giannoulias's numbers have subsequently dropped. Kirk is not letting this crisis go to waste as he reminds voters about Giannoulias's mismanagement of finances in his latest campaign ads.

Despite the overwhelming Democratic advantage in Illinois, it has become apparent that Kirk is the frontrunner. Cook has changed his rating from Toss-up to Lean Republican. We believe the current polls are understating Kirk's support, but he will definitely have an advantage with undecideds come election day and we will see his 4% lead grow.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

IN-Sen: Coats Leads By 16

5/9/10
IN-Sen

Dan Coats (R) 50%
Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%
Undecided 16%

Coats +16%


Race News:
Dan Coats (R-IN) won the Republican nomination last week in Indiana's primaries, to no one's surprise. The first post-primary poll was released this week by Rasmussen, 51-36. Taking into account previous polls where Coats has been leading, this also comes as no surprise.

The partisan Republican lean of the state and the national climate will make this open seat an easy pickup for Republicans in November.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

The Great RINO Hunt of 2010, Cont.

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Barely into the primary season, and the tea party movement can already officially claim a scalp. The bald head in this case being that of 3-term U.S. Senator, Bob Bennett (R - Utah), who failed to survive the 2nd round of caucus voting at Saturday's Utah nominating convention. Details on the event are covered by The Salt Lake Tribune http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_15046264. Don't think it's a large victory for the tea parties? See this money quote from none other than Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine (D - Virginy):
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"That the tea party would consider Bob Bennett, one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate, too liberal, just goes to show how extreme that tea party is," Kaine said. "If there was any question before, there should now be no doubt that the Republican leadership has handed the reins to the tea party." (Emphasis AZDB)
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Elected three times since 1992, Bennett came under fire from many conservatives for supporting bank bailouts during the last of the Bush 43 years and for co-sponsoring his own version of Obamacare that would have mandated the purchase of individual insurance, both anathema to small-government tea party activists and their supporters. Now, barring a kamikaze write-in campaign to win in November, he becomes the first incumbent Congresscritter or Senator to be defeated in seeking reelection this year. Hey, Bob: DLTDHYOTWO. Sincerely, AZDB.

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As for the finalists advancing in Survivor: Utah GOP Senate, businessman Tim Bridgewater will face off against lawyer Mike Lee in a standard GOP primary set later in June. The winner is almost assured victory in November in this heavy Republican state that has drawn only token opposition from Democrats. Next up between now & June: intense jockeying for the much-coveted endorsement of GOP superstar and former Governorette Sarah Palin (R - Alaska, you betcha!).

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Before the day is out, I expect two large bouquets of roses to be delivered to the Palin estate via the Utah branch of 1-800-FLOWERS. A lesser, arrogant politico could just name her price and let the gifts just fly in. Willow and Piper Palin could probably have all-expenses-paid college waiting for them courtesy of the highest bidder. But instead, because they have to know she's no ordinary politico, expect Lee and Bridgewater to engage in a game of The Biggest Commonsense Conservative. Expect the scene to look something like this:
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Of course Palin is much better looking than AC and is just wearing an Alice Cooper costume. Not sure which one is Lee and which one is Bridgewater, though.
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- AZDB

PA-12: Burns Leads By 2%

5/9/10
PA-12 (Special Election)

Tim Burns (R) 42%
Mark Critz (D) 40%
Undecided 18%

Burns +2%


Race News:
A special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district results from the unfortunate death of Congressman Jack Murtha (D-PA), who had represented this district for several decades. He was an anomaly of sorts, as the district leaned Republican. The district itself is also the only district to go for John Kerry (D) in 2004 and John McCain in 2008, one of the few districts that became more conservative than in past elections.

All recent polling, even from left-leaning Daily Kos, has shown the Republican with a clear advantage. Charlie Cook has also moved his rating for this district to Lean GOP. The Republican is favored to pick up a majority of the undecideds due to the district's lean, demographics and overall disapproval numbers of Obama and Democrats.

The special election is in nine days, on May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

HI-01: Djou Leads By 3%

5/9/10
HI-01 (Special Election)

Charles Djou (R) 34%
Ed Case (D) 31%
Colleen Hanabusa 23%
Undecided 12%

Djou +3%


Race News:
A special election in Hawaii's first district, home of Barack Obama, is likely to fall to Republicans due to a lack of a primary. 2 Democrats, perennial candidate Case and liberal darling, Hanabusa, are running and splitting the vote.

All recent polling, even internal polling from the DNC, shows the Republican, Djou, ahead. At this point, the Democratic establishment has stopped funding the race and it looks like Djou will pick up a healthy share of the undecideds.

The special election is happening now via mail and ballots will be accepted for another thirteen days, till May 22 at 6 PM. Voting centers are open from May 10 to May 21, but will be closed on May 22.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

PA-Sen Primary: Sestak Closing In On Specter

5/9/10
Pennsylvania (Democratic Primary)

Arlen Specter (D-inc) 45%
Joe Sestak 40%
Undecided 15%

Specter +5%

Race News:
After switching parties seemingly to avoid a contested primary on the GOP side, Arlen Specter, now a Democrat, is fending off a challenge by Joe Sestak. The electorate is quickly deciding and this is looking to be one of the most contested primaries of 2010. Sestak has gained momentum in the last week, so our next update may put him ahead if he maintains that momentum.

The primary election is in nine days, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

AR-Sen Primary: Lincoln Looks Safe

5/9/10
Arkansas Senate (Democratic Primary)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 43%
Bill Halter 32%
Undecided/Other 25%

Lincoln +9%

Race News:
Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is being challenged in a primary by Lt Gov. Bill Halter. Bill Halter is running to the left of Lincoln. Despite being the preferred choice of the base, Arkansan Democrats seem to be lining up behind Blanche and will likely re-nominate her.

The primary election is in nine days, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

KY-Sen Primary: Paul, Mongiardo Lead

5/9/10
Kentucky Senate (Republican Primary)

Rand Paul 44%
Trey Grayson 29%
Undecided 27%

Paul +15%

Kentucky Senate (Democratic Primary)

Daniel Mongiardo 37%
Jack Conway 29%
Bill Johnson 4%
Undecided 30%

Mongiardo +8%

Race News:
Nothing has changed in the KY-Sen primary on the Republican side. Despite ramped up advertising by Greyson, Paul maintains a healthy 15 point advantage.

On the Democrats' side, Mongiardo's numbers have come down slightly but still commands an 8 percent lead over Conway. Conway's base of support has not actually increased as much as Mongiardo's coming down. 30 percent of the Democratic electorate is still undecided. This has the potential to get interesting.

The primary election is in nine days, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - Arizona

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Next in our continuing series subtitled "The 50 Best GOP from the U.S. 50, over the last 50 years" we'll be honoring the Grand Canyon state. Putting aside the humongously-large and powerful state of California, Arizona may have had more significant congressional leaders/Senators for any state west of the Mississippi over these last 50 years. Hence there are many honorees to choose from, and some good GOPers since 1960 will not make the cut. But considering his effect on the politics and partisanship of the state over this period, late Senator Barry Goldwater is the near-unanimous choice for the honor of representing the mavericky state of Arizona.
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Praising Arizona: Barry Goldwater

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Before he came to be known as "Mr. Conservative," Barry Goldwater came along to defeat heavyweight Earnest McFarland in 1952. In its short history, the 48th state of Arizona had only been served by a Republican in the U.S. Senate for one six-year term. Since 1960, it has seen only two Democrats elected as Senator, and only one since 1980. Also, since voting for Harry Truman in 1948, Arizona has voted Republican every time for president except one (Clinton, 1996, by only 2%). Much of the credit for vastly improving the GOP brand in this once-DemocRAT state (pre-1952) belongs to the late-great Senator. Though its leanings were always somewhat libertarian conservative, Arizona, like much of the Southwest, had developed the bad habit of behaving like the Deep South by voting Democrat for most of its elected offices. Mr. Goldwater's heavyweight stature on capitol Hill had a lasting impression on the state's voting habits, as well as following generations of Arizona lawmakers who went on to represent the state locally and in Washington D.C.

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Barry Goldwater began his federal career by knocking off two-term sitting U.S. Senate Majority Leader, and who later went on to be Arizona's governor for a term, Earnest McFarland. No small accomplishment to begin with, since such young and small states tend to stick with powerful incumbents to bring stature, influence and federal $$ back to their states. By the end of his 2nd full term in the Senate, Mr. Goldwater was down after winning only 38% and six states as GOP nominee for President in 1964. But one saving grace was that his successor to the seat was also a Republican, who kept it for two more terms until his own retirement.

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In a rare political feat, Mr. Goldwater captured AZ's other Class III Senate seat only four years later, following the retirement of another powerhouse, Democrat Carl Hayden. Despite the soaring population and changing demographics of the state from the 60s up until his last race in 1980 (which was won by a surprisingly close margin for such a long-time figure during a GOP-tide year), Mr. Goldwater attained electoral success like no other figure in the GOP. Knowing his time in electoral politics was due to come to a close (He would be 77 once his next term would be up in 1986.), he paved the way for John S McCain (Bipartisan - AZ) to run for and win his seat during the GOP bloodbath year of 1986, where many of the gains once made on Ronald Reagan's coattails were lost in the wake of Iran Contra. Mr. McCain himself had seen no serious elctoral challenge until the 2010 GOP primary.

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Despite his friction with the Christian right in his later Senate and retirement years, "Mr. Conservative" has a unsurpassed legacy in the state. Among the monuments named in his honor are a terminal at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, Goldwater Memorial Park in Paradise Valley and Barry Goldwater High School in northern Phoenix. Add in the Goldwater Institute think tank and it makes for quite a stature in the state. But it's his influence on turning Arizona from habitually Democrat in its voting habits to nearly automatic GOP (at least until 2006 - certainly not his fault 8 years after his death) which earns Barry Goldwater the honor as one of the "50 Best" of the last 50 years.

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Honorable Mention: Senators John McCain & John Kyl; House Minority Leader John Rhodes; Congressman John Shadegg

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Next Week: Arkansas

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- 50 Best

Jackass of the Week: Mid-Week Nominee

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Here's both a hump day & Cinco de Mayo bonus. This Phillies fan who was tasered after running onto the field in Philadelphia is a knuckleheadded 17 year old. Countdown to liberals making him a victim of torture in 5...4...3...
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Just imagine the MSNBC coverage of the incident if the scene were instead filmed on the southern border of Arizona and the teen was an illegal from Mexico, tasered after running across the desert to avoid INS, Homeland Security, Border Patrol, AZ police, or just Sarah Palin. Chris Matthews (LSM - Leg Tingles) would need more coffee for the 24-7 panel coverage than Janet "Incompetano" needs common sense before every comment she utters in the wake of a major security incident. This poor boy's victimhood status would make Rodney King look like a Piker by comparison.

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- AZDB

Primary Elections Today: IN, NC, OH

Today is Election Day in IN, NC and OH. There are some contested primaries, others are easy walks, others with a clear advantage. Let's break them down one by one.

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IN-Sen:
On the GOP side, the little polling that has been released for the Indiana race shows a double-digit advantage for former Senator Dan Coats. Hostettler and Stutzman have shown no momentum in polling.

On the Dem side, Brad Ellsworth is the expected nominee for US Senate.

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OH-Sen:
On the GOP side, Rob Portman is the expected nominee for US Senate.

On the Dem side, the polling shows a consistent double-digit advantage for Lee Fisher. Jennifer Brunner, who was running neck and neck with Fisher last year, has seen any momentum fall flat.

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NC-Sen:
On the GOP side, Senator Richard Burr is the expected nominee.

On the Dem side, Elaine Marshall has polled ahead of Cal Cunningham by single digits. We expect her to win the nomination, unless the mostly undecided electorate decides to overwhelmingly support her opponent.

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OH-Gov:
On the GOP side, John Kasich is the expected nominee.

On the Dem side, Governor Ted Strickland is the expected nominee, as he runs for re-election.