Monday, March 1, 2010

2010 TX-Gov Primary: Perry To Win a Majority

Texas (Republican Primary)
3/1/10 Electionology Final Prediction

Rick Perry 44%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 29%
Debra Medina 16%
Undecided 11%

Perry +15%

Race News:
The election in Texas is tomorrow. Our last update broke the race down to: 45/28/16. There is very little change and the slight decline is due to our time delay metric. In other words, statistical noise. (No new polls on this race since our last update.)

There are 11% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:

Rick Perry 52%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 32%
Debra Medina 16%

Perry +20%

Perry is likely getting the bulk of undecided voters due to momentum, a solid and consistent support from the primary electorate at 40% or over, and clear campaign messaging. The Hutchison campaign, on the other hand has been consistently polling in the high 20's and low 30's, has garnered negative press and is generally, anemic. There is no doubt Perry will win this tomorrow. The big question is whether he passes the 50% mark, and we believe he will clear this hurdle, preventing another month of runoff ads.

On the Democrats' side, Bill White is poised to easily win the Democratic nomination for Governor.



Anonymous said...

You guys nailed this race. Good job. Much better than PPP did. lol

Anonymous said...

Good job, guys!

Anonymous said...

think bill white has a chance?