Wednesday, March 3, 2010

2010 TX-Gov Primary: Post-Game Analysis

3/2 Election Results

Rick Perry 51.1%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 30.3%
Debra Medina 18.5%

Perry +20.7%

Post-Game Analysis:
These were our metric's final predictions:

Rick Perry 52% (+0.9%)
Kay Bailey Hutchison 32% (+1.6%)
Debra Medina 16% (-2.5%)

Perry +20% (-0.7%)

Bragging Rights:
- Our metric was within 1% of predicting Perry's support.
- Our metric was within 1% of predicting Perry's margin of victory over Hutchison.
- Our metric correctly predicted that Perry would avoid a runoff.
- Our metric was within 2% of predicting Hutchisons' support.
- Our metric was within 3% of predicting Medina's support.

Fun Facts:
- Hutchison spent the most money in this campaign ($20 million to Perry's $17 million and Medina's $500K), but saw the smallest rate of return ($45 per vote to Perry's $23 and Medina's $1.83).
- Perry won Hutchison's urban strongholds handily. This included Dallas (47-34) and Houston's Harris County (61-27).
- Perry ran a campaign focusing on TV and Internet media, while Hutchison focused on traditional outlets such as radio and print.

Race News:
Hutchison has called Perry to concede the race. Rick Perry is now the official Republican nominee for Governor, as he runs for an unprecedented 3rd full term. Congratulations, Governor Perry!


7 comments: said...

Not bad. Do your metrics predict NBA basketball games? If so, who do you like in Friday's Lakers-Bobcats matchup?

AZDB said...

If it could predict NBA games, you know I'd be all over it. It does slice the best french fries you'll ever see though.

Anonymous said...

You guys are like Sister Cleo of polling. Kudos!

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

PPP (D) completely screwed up the polling on this race. Never trusting them again

Anonymous said...

i don't trust partisan pollsters. stick with rasmussen or survey usa

Anonymous said...

what's your site's method of allocating undecideds? you guys seriously nailed this one