McCain-Palin Reunion Tour - Part 1 (?)

.

The mavericky campaign team of John McCain (Bipartisan - AZ) and Sarah Palin (R - AK) fired up crowds (Oops - hope that phrase doesn't incite right-wingers to violence.) with more passion than was usually seen during their unsuccessful run for the White House in '08 while campaigning for Mac's 5th Senate term in the two largest Arizona cities over the weekend. The lamestream media was in full Pavlov's-dog mode as the two hit the trail for the first time together since John McCain conceded defeat to current-President Hope n' Change, snapping pictures of the pair on stage more often than John Edwards chooses to wear condoms.

.

Coverage of their first rally in Tucson from March 26 can be seen here, courtesy of Palin TV:

http://palintv.com/2010/03/27/gov-palin-campaigns-for-mccain-in-arizona-march-26-2010/

And if anyone ever doubted that there is establishment-media distaste for Republicans, here is an off-the-record picture of MSNBC superstar-wannabe Norah O' Donnell scowling at the Pima County Fairgrounds (No O' D apparently irked that there are no 16 year-old girls to ambush on camera with "gotcha" questions.):

The next day, McPalin fired up the Straight-Talk Express (v 2.0) from Mesa, and their rally even included two protesters feeling nostalgia for making asses of themselves on live national TV (Ah, the memories!). For the fireworks, FFWD to about 5:30 to watch the Barracuda tear one 19-year-old twit to shreds without skipping a beat. One would think by now these nitwits would learn that she eats young punks for supper, and then asks for 2nds.

.

.

.

...John McCain, apparently having the time of his life

http://palintv.com/2010/03/27/governor-palin-campaigns-for-mccain-in-mesa-arizona-march-27-2010/

.

Hat tip to SNRK for all the images. (SNRK you very much.)

.

.

- AZDB

Jackass of the Week - Obamacare Edition

Bart Stupak (D - Judas), You Ignorant Slut!

Thank you Rep. Stupak (D - Mich, Upp-yer-Ass Peninsula), for officially obliterating what remained of the myth that was the "pro-life" DemocRAT. All it took was the promise of an executive order (Aside: It's not worth the paper it's printed on.) saying no funding would go toward abortion, and you & your fellow boy scout troops folded like Blue Burrito tortillas. Real principles y'all got there! Of course we should have expected this cave since you declared your favor of the basic bill a while back speaking in Cheboygan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URr68joWr1E

Congrats, Mr. Stupak: the issue of protecting the unborn was so important that it took just over $726K in grants by the Obama Administration toward three airports (all coincidentally residing in your district) just two days before the Obamacare vote in order for you to flush it down the toilet. Hope such a flagrant bribe was worth your 15 minutes of face-time and soon-to-be lifetime of infamy and shame. "Airplanes flied, babies died!"

.

As for November and Stuck-on-Stupak's hold on the district, according to Hot Air, the district leans slightly Republican, according to the Cook Report, but Stupak’s won every general election there since 1992 by double digits and the last seven by no less than 19 points. The current GOP candidates in the race include surgeon Dr. Dan Benishek, equipment operator and trucking company CEO Don Hooper, lawyer Linda Goldthorpe and Tom Stillings, who ran in 2008 GOP primary. Also weighing the race (What better time than now?) is Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Dennis Lennox, 25, who has formed a committee to explore a potential bid to run for the 1st House district. Whoever ultimately wins the GOP nod can expect a huge influx of funds from citizens throughout the nation, as Stupak has unofficially tattooed a bullseye on his back. This race may prove just how big an anti-DemocRAT wave there winds up being.

..

..

- AZDB

Normal Midterm History, or Bloodbath?

Looking ahead to November midterms, any March predictions or polling you hear regarding this year's election cycle (not to be confused with menstrual) are nothing more than low-grade cigar smoke. President Obama, it should be admitted, can at least take his eyes off the teleprompter for a half hour to grasp that point. After all, he did win the Presidency. I was compelled with Bush Jr's haters repeatedly pointing out that fact regarding their personal "Satan." So, knowing reality, namely that November elections are not decided in March, what Obama is focused on right now is these numbers: 28 and 4. According to our reliable friends at Wikipedia org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election), since the New Deal the President's party has lost on average 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats. So, the Dems are likely to lose seats this year even without the President's record, which has taken a hit in many quarters.

The relevant question, then becomes what are the expected midterm losses that would measure the difference between Obama’ losing respectably vs. getting his Presidential Rolex cleaned? What is a fair number? How is MGM Grand's over/under betting line reading? Maybe we should start with the two consequential post-New Deal Presidents - LBJ and Reagan. LBJ's lone midterm is instructive, as his "Great Society" was on trial during the '66 midterm, not unlike the behemoth social bills Obama and friends are currently plugging. LBJ's Democrats lost 48 House seats and 6 Senate seats that year. And Reagan? While Obama is several light years from getting his own airport and highway named after him (and getting his mug put on currency for that matter), Reagan's surprisingly respectable showing in 1982, when his party only lost 26 House and broke even in the Senate, paved the way for his '84 bloodbath reelection over poor Walt Mondale. Clearly, Obama's audacious actions have a comfortable 2012 reelection in mind. He can hope, right?

This is the only pertinent issue worth discussing now because D-Day is November 3 for all political junkies. For that is the day we all align to reconfigure the 2012 viability of the Palin-"Tea-Party" cabal, the Romney-Ryan-"Establishment"-Republican Party, and yes, President Obama himself.

So with that, let's go straight scientific and open the over/under betting at 37 House seats will shift and 3 Senate seats, smack dab in the middle between the two partisan heroes of the last half century. Call it the median to use based on the average losses under LBJ & Ronald Reagan. As a betting man, I would say the under for the House and over on the Senate are looking tasty at this point. Place your bets.

.

- contributed by RDS

San Fran Nan Pelosi & President Zero Sending Congressional Democrats Off To "Slaughter?"

Louise Slaughter, that is. Current House Rules Chairwench from the state of New York. (What is in the water that NY Democrats have been drinking lately?) Although I'm not an attorney at law, I do play one on the blogosphere occasionally. But I'm willing to clear the field for a more brilliant legal mind to explain the latest, and most desperate tactic used by House Squeaker Nancy Pelosi (D - Botox) to legislate - errr, jam down the throat of the American public - Democrats' long never-due health care overhaul. AZDB's short explanation: the "Slaughter Solution," as proponents call it, allows the House to consider the Senate bill passed into law without having been voted on by the House itself. Then the icky parts Congressional Dems don't like can be fixed via reconciliation maneuvers with the Senate. Or something like that. All hail radio host and President of the Landmark Legal Foundation, Mark Levin, who puts the issue in proper constitutional perspective (Attention please to at least the first 16 minutes of this audio clip):

.

http://rope.zmle.fimc.net/player/player.html?url=http%3A%2F%2Fpodloc%2Eandomedia%2Ecom%2FdloadTrack%2Emp3%3Fprm%3D2069xhttp%3A%2F%2Fpodfuse%2Ddl%2Eandomedia%2Ecom%2F800185%2Fpodfuse%2Dorigin%2Eandomedia%2Ecom%2Fcitadel%5Forigin%2Fpods%2Fmarklevin%2FLevin03122010%2Emp3

Now the only question is, from a midterm-election standpoint, what will the professional handicappers set as the over/under for the number of House seats DemocRATS stand to lose should this "Slaughter House Jive" be enacted via Chicago-Way chicanery, and President Obama's "Trillion Dollar Baby" monstrosity passes by super-constitutional means. AZDB will take a free shot at it and say 72 - one Dem seat for every hour the public was to be allowed to review the health care reform package online before a House vote. (One more promise broken by the Most Ethical Congress in History.) The resulting carnage would make the 1994 midterm "Revolution" look like a happy memory in the history of the Donkey Party by comparison. Yours truly plans on investing in pitchfork stocks prior to November.

..

- AZDB

Jackass of the Week

Patrick Kennedy: Unplugged & Unhinged!

The eight-term Rhode Island Congressman, best known for modeling his personal life after the late Corey Haim, came unglued Wednesday on the House Floor, arguing about the media not covering the war and troops in Afghanistan (at least we think that's what he was screaming about). See for yourselves & try to translate while using your meltdown-to-English handbooks.

http://videos.mediaite.com/video/Rep-Patrick-Kennedy-Slams-Media

.

Displaying circus-like antics that would have made his late father Edward "The Snorkler" Kennedy proud, Patty K decides to blast out of Congress in a blaze of glory. (Mr. K has decided to spend more time with his bartender...errrrr, family - instead of seeking a 9th term from CD-1.)

..

.

.
- AZDB

"Oh No, They Didn't": Possible Midterm Upsets

.

One way to sniff out a DemocRAT is by the stench of entitlement (as pungent as a metrosexual's cologne). From health care to welfare to seats in government, there is nothing more priceless than a Democrat's face when handed a judgment of "NO."

The following seats in bright blue states are understood in Democrat circles to be "safe" seats. About as safe as the Martha Coakley/Ted Kennedy Senate seat in Massachusetts two months ago, I say...

I plan on running into the following 4 politicians in the Customer Service line at Bed, Bath and Beyond when they return their drapes in November. (H/T: AZDB)

1. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)

Part of New York's own little dynastic legacy, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, looks set to follow in his father's footsteps. He has been flexing his political muscle, and partisan New York Democrats have swooned on cue. In addition, post-Pataki-era Republicans have struggled with their footing in the once-hospitable Empire State.

REALITY CHECK: The harsh odors emanating from the New York Democrat Party's scandals (Eric Massa, Charlie Rangel and David Paterson) are rubbing off on Cuomo. His approvals are now down to 54%, not so swoon-worthy anymore. Add to that, his likely GOP challenger is former Congressman Rick Lazio, who has previously run statewide (receiving a respectable 43% vs. former First Lady and future Senator Hillary Clinton in 2000).

2. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Attorney General Blumenthal, now the presumptive nominee for Senate in Connecticut, jumped at the chance to replace longtime incumbent Chris Dodd (D-Conn), who bailed from seeking another term amid tanking re-election numbers. This "bait and switch" tactic relies on the assumption that the voters are stupid and willing to forget the Senator's scandals. Worked well for Republicans in 2006 and 2008. Oh, wait....

REALITY CHECK: Despite the AG being a popular figure in Connecticut, the fresh scent of scandal from Dodd, if capitalized on effectively by moderate Republican Rob Simmons, could lead to a real race in a state that used to be reliably Republican. CT continues to elect Republican governors like Jodi Rell, who is currently one of the most popular governors in the country. So wipe that creepy smile off your face, Dick!

3. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Senator Patrick Murray may need to take a break from the tennis courts and carpool to actually campaign. Currently in a light blue state that went for Obama by 17 points in 2008, "the mom in tennis shoes" didn't think she had anything to worry about. Hence, she went ahead and voted for health care "reform" and the Not-So-Stimulating "Stimulus" on the Senate floor, while simultaneously organizing - via cell phone - play dates and tennis tournaments with Maria Cantwell (when she's not running around with married men who work for the NY Times).

REALITY CHECK: Much of the Evergreen State outside of Seattle is conservative, and this is where the likely electorate will be more heavily drawn from this year. (Washington also experienced the biggest Dem to GOP swing in the 1994 elections.) Patty Murray is polling behind two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, and her current approval rating stands at 43%, according to the most reliable state pollster in the business, Survey USA. Anonymous, unnamed sources say she thinks it's because of her cooking. She promises to go easy on the salt next time around.

4. Diane Denish (D-NM)

In another bait and switch, this time following embarrassing scandals surrounding current Governor Bill "Pay to Play" Richardson, Diane Denish takes the baton as the only announced candidate in the NM-Governor race for the DemocRATS. Diane has already been interrupting Richardson's meetings to pick color schemes with her interior designer; though not surprising, as Obama won this normally swing state handily in 2008 by 15 points in a strong national anti-GOP environment.

REALITY CHECK: But now it's 2010, and Obama's approval ratings are below 50% in this state that went for Bush narrowly in 2004. No polling has been done on the NM-Gov race but it would not be surprising if the Republicans nominate announced-candidate Pete Domenici Jr. in November and win by riding an increasing anti-Dem wave. Anonymous, unnamed sources say that Denish will be going on a ski trip with Martha Coakley (D-MA) in the last two weeks of October. She says she may even try to snowboard.

- SNRK

Jackass of the Week

New York Democrat Party - 3 for the Price of 1!

Moron #1: Charlie Rangel - By Any Ways & Means Necessary

.

The most Ethical Congress in History (D - Bullshit) received another black eye (Just a figure of speech, NAACP, so calm down.), as an ethics committee ruled that House Ways & Means Chairman Charlie Rangel violated House gift rules by accepting travel to the Caribbean. Rangel (D - Harlem) has decided to give up the gavel in the wake of scandal. At least he had decided to... Then he wasn't going to...Then he was, at least temporarily. Come Thursday, he was replaced as acting chairman by Sandy Levin (Michigan), and as of now it is unclear whether he will ever get the gavel back. Whatever happens before campaign season kicks into high gear, vulnerable Democrats, inside and outside his state, aren't exactly thrilled to be running with this albatross around their necks, especially in today's Scarlet D climate.

.

.

Moron #2: Eric Massa - Zero to Scandal in Ten Seconds

.

First, Freshman Congressman Eric Massa (D - Navy) stunned the D.C. establishment, and especially the Democrat Party, with his abrupt retirement announcement on Wednesday. The first explanation was health reasons. Then allegations of sexual harassment by a MALE aide broke (Mr. Massa is married with children.), which the congressman tried to explain away as having used "salty language" on occasion. And apparently, according to Politico, the House Ethics Committee (now officially an oxymoron) had been informed of allegations that Massa had made unwanted advances toward the junior staffer. Complaints were brought to the attention of Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. Then Friday, Hotline OnCall reported that Massa will resign on Monday (Hard to type any more... AZDB wiping... away... tears.) Now the seat (and the fate of the health care bill?) is in major jeopardy come November, as it is in a GOP-leaning area of Western NY and the Democrat bench there is as weak as 7-11 coffee.

.

Moron #3: David Paterson - How Much Longer Until He Goes?

It continues to rain shit on NY Governor Paterson, who now faces charges from the NY Commission on Public Integrity (snicker, snicker) for violating the gift ban under state ethics laws by receiving free tickets to the 1st game of the 2009 World Series, according to the NY Post. Also, he may face criminal charges, as the case has been referred the CPI to the Albany County DA & to NY AG Andrew Cuomo. As an added bonus, the Gov's spokesman tendered his resignation Thursday, lobbing this verbal slap before the ink was even dry:

"I have been honored to serve the people of New York during a difficult time in our state’s history. As a former officer in the United States Navy, integrity and commitment to public service are values I take seriously... Unfortunately, as recent developments have come to light, I cannot in good
conscience continue in my current position..." .

Mr. Paterson's tenure as hand-me-down governor continues to make New Yorkers long for the "good old days" under Client #9.

.

.

- AZDB

2010 TX-Gov Primary: Post-Game Analysis

3/2 Election Results

Rick Perry 51.1%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 30.3%
Debra Medina 18.5%

Perry +20.7%

Post-Game Analysis:
These were our metric's final predictions:

Rick Perry 52% (+0.9%)
Kay Bailey Hutchison 32% (+1.6%)
Debra Medina 16% (-2.5%)

Perry +20% (-0.7%)

Bragging Rights:
- Our metric was within 1% of predicting Perry's support.
- Our metric was within 1% of predicting Perry's margin of victory over Hutchison.
- Our metric correctly predicted that Perry would avoid a runoff.
- Our metric was within 2% of predicting Hutchisons' support.
- Our metric was within 3% of predicting Medina's support.

Fun Facts:
- Hutchison spent the most money in this campaign ($20 million to Perry's $17 million and Medina's $500K), but saw the smallest rate of return ($45 per vote to Perry's $23 and Medina's $1.83).
- Perry won Hutchison's urban strongholds handily. This included Dallas (47-34) and Houston's Harris County (61-27).
- Perry ran a campaign focusing on TV and Internet media, while Hutchison focused on traditional outlets such as radio and print.

Race News:
Hutchison has called Perry to concede the race. Rick Perry is now the official Republican nominee for Governor, as he runs for an unprecedented 3rd full term. Congratulations, Governor Perry!

-FSHS

The 2010 Texas Governor Primary: It's On!

.

.

The only lingering question is: Will Rick Perry reach the necessary 50% to avoid a runoff in April, or will "Punxsutawney" Kay see her shadow and subject the Texas electorate to six more weeks of cringe-inducing ads over the airwaves?

And by the way, someone named Debra Medina is the spare dick at this party, hoping to stay relevant for any future aspirations. She's the only reason this primary may go to runoff. Thanks, Deb. Please pick up your "We Still Have Unanswered Questions About 9/11" T-shirt on the way out.

Update: 9:30 pm TX time - 1st Qtr in the books & the score is Perry 52, KBH 31, Medina 17. Looks like that unless a twister carries away blocks of remaining Perry votes, Slick Rick is in the famed catbird seat, KBH is Texas toast, and Medina's 15 minutes are up. Don't want no runoff; don't need no runoff.

Update #2: 1:00 am TX time - It's all over but the cryin' with 95% counted. Perry 51, KBH 30, Funky Cold Medina 19. KBH apparently saw the handwriting on the wall and conceded early in the evening. Now that he's through with the appetizer, it's on to the main course for Slick Rick.

- AZDB

Female Dem Senators That May Go Bayh-Bayh

.
These 4 female (?) Democrat incumbents aren't cruising to re-election as easily as they had hoped. We have the latest.

1. Babs "The Polish Midget" Mikulski (D-MD)

Though generally perceived as safe, Senator Mikulski (D-MD) is polling only 54% in one of the bluest states in the country. Anonymous, unidentified sources have leaked that she may retire to pursue a career in Hollywood. We are unclear if this involves leading roles as the creepy matriarch villains or supporting roles as trolls in Disney or Lionsgate productions. But there's also the lucrative and growing sector of midget porn in the adult film sector. Knowing Babs and Dems in general, she may opt for an "all of the above" approach.

2. Blanche "Moderate If U Want Me 2 B" Lincoln (D-AR)

Senator Blanche "Moderate, J/K!" Lincoln (D-AR)'s seat is a likely Republican pickup as her job approvals are consistently in the 20's. She is also losing handily in hypothetical matchups against unknown Republicans. Ouch! After successfully alienating more coalitions than any other politician in recent history (does she get an award for this?), she faces a nasty primary challenge from Bill Halter (on the left) that may leave that scarf of hers bloody and tattered even before facing the Republican nominee.

Coming attractions: Long, wordy, substance-light campaign speeches/debates (complete with redneck drawl and huntin' gear, for street cred).

3. Barbara "Call Me Senator" Boxer (D-CA)

Though third-term Barbara Boxer (D-CA) worked very hard for her "Senator" title, she better be worried about even having a job next year. (We know how Democrats do in the private sector) Despite consistently looking busy on her computer but is actually playing Solitaire and Hearts, Barbara's been busted one too many times. Her support (in recent polling against a slew of weak Republican candidates) is hovering in the mid-40's. Boxer seems to be spelt "L-A-Y-O-F-F" these days.

4. Soccer Mom Patrick Murray (D-WA)

There's a nasty stench coming from Senator Patty Murray (D-Tennis Court). No, it's not just the athlete's foot coming from her grimy tennis shoes (same ones from her first campaign) It's 43% approval numbers, and consistent polling (against unknown Republican potentials) in the 40's. But let's look on the bright side. There are bake sales and carpools that will keep her busy in 2011.

- SNRK

Ford Apparently Can't Make It in New York

Tennessee Harold Ford officially announced Monday that he would abandon his bid to unseat the heavyweight Jr. Senator from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand. Obviously a relief for Senator Bimbette (D - Valley Girl) as well as the Democrat Party outside of the Ford family, Carpetbagger Harry announced, in an opinion piece set to be published in the New York Times on Tuesday: "If I run, the likely result would be a brutal and highly negative Democratic primary -- a primary where the winner emerges weakened and the Republican strengthened... I refuse to do anything that would help Republicans win a Senate seat in New York, and give the Senate majority to the Republicans."

One of the benefits of this decision is that Harold Ford is now free to chase blondes back home in comfortable surroundings, instead of having to find fresh associates to cover his tracks in a more cosmopolitan state. Also, he now has fifty...five (Is my math right, Mr Obama?) more states in which to launch fruitless flirtations as a wannabe Senator. Asked to comment about Ford's decision, Sen Gillibrand told anonymous, unnamed sources "Like, what a relief. Now I can focus 100% on New York voters, instead of having to run expensive ads against Harold in Tennessee, the state which knows him best... He is really cute, though. I even told Harry Reid that Mr. Ford is one of the good ones."

- AZDB

2010 TX-Gov Primary: Perry To Win a Majority

Texas (Republican Primary)
3/1/10 Electionology Final Prediction

Rick Perry 44%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 29%
Debra Medina 16%
Undecided 11%

Perry +15%

Race News:
The election in Texas is tomorrow. Our last update broke the race down to: 45/28/16. There is very little change and the slight decline is due to our time delay metric. In other words, statistical noise. (No new polls on this race since our last update.)

There are 11% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:

Rick Perry 52%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 32%
Debra Medina 16%

Perry +20%

Perry is likely getting the bulk of undecided voters due to momentum, a solid and consistent support from the primary electorate at 40% or over, and clear campaign messaging. The Hutchison campaign, on the other hand has been consistently polling in the high 20's and low 30's, has garnered negative press and is generally, anemic. There is no doubt Perry will win this tomorrow. The big question is whether he passes the 50% mark, and we believe he will clear this hurdle, preventing another month of runoff ads.

On the Democrats' side, Bill White is poised to easily win the Democratic nomination for Governor.

-FSHS