2010 Gov Ratings: Uncertainty Prevails

Many events in the last month move our races:

CA-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)
HI-Gov: Safe Dem to Likely Dem (Favors GOP)
NY-Gov: Safe Dem to Lean Dem (Favors GOP)
ME-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
MN-Gov: Lean Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
NH-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
PA-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
RI-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
VT-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)

There are more toss-ups. The Dems move two Northeast seats and California in their favor, as the states regress back to their more liberal means. Primary wins put Hawaii and New York in more competitive categories in favor of the GOP while the GOP solidifies their lead in ME, NM and PA.

Current Projections (October 1, 2010):

GOP: 29

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 5

Lean: 6

Dem: 13

No Race: 7

Safe: 1

Likely: 2

Lean: 3

Toss-Ups: 8

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe)

LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) NY (Open) RI (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Open) FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) NH (Lynch) OR (Open) VT (Open)

LEAN GOP GA (Open) IL (Quinn) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) TX (Perry) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)