2010 Senate Ratings Change: FL/KY Move To Likely GOP, WV To Lean Dem

With latest polling from Rasmussen and Susquehanna, Rubio positions himself in a much stronger lead, pulling double digit margins over Charlie Crist (Republican-turned-Independent). As Crist's support implodes and Kendrick Meek hits his likely ceiling, we are moving our rating for FL to Likely GOP.

Rand Paul also consolidates a strong double digit over-50 lead in latest polling. We will not count RV polls in our analysis, or internal polls. This race is looking safer by the day. KY receives an upgrade to Likely GOP. This leaves NH as the only seat the Republicans could possibly be playing defense in. With next week's nomination, we will have a better idea where this race stands.

Latest Rasmussen polling shows Governor Manchin in a much weaker position than previously thought. He is only leading his challenger by 5 points. Though Rasmussen moves this race to a Tossup, we still believe the Dem is favored and move the rating from Likely Dem rightward to Lean Dem. This is subject to change as more polling is released from this race.

Current Projections (September 9, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 7

Lean: 6

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) WV ' (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) DE (Open) IL (Open) NH (Open) PA (Open) WA (Murray)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) KY (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr) OH (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)