Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wave Elections: CA & WA 2010 = VA & MO 2006

The two key battleground states that will likely decide Senate control are California and Washington. Currently, the RCP average seperating Boxer and Fiorina is a mere 1.3 points and in Washington, Rossi is behind by 3.3 points. Polling in these two states is starting to mirror late-breaking states in 2006's midterms, where the Democrats were the challenging party and the Republicans were incumbents.

California has experienced consistent polling on two fronts. Incumbent Boxer (D) has been consistently under 50 percent and has posted consistent leads. We now see our first poll in a while that shows Fiorina pulling ahead 3 points on October 19. In the polls she still posts a deficit, Fiorina also has closed her margins and now the deficit is only 1 point in the RCP average.

This is very similar to the Virginia senate race in 2006 when now Senator Webb (D) defeated incumbent George Allen (R) by a tiny margin. What's interesting and similar is that aside from 2 polls in the summer, the incumbent Allen held the lead until Webb started to turn the race around last minute on October 20, 2006. Hopefully, Fiorina is able to follow the Webb trend and cruise to victory.

Washington, on the other hand, has experienced see-sawing polling. One week, Rossi (R) will have the lead and the next a slew of polls show incumbent Murray (D) ahead.

This almost mirrors polling in Missouri's senate race in 2006 between Talent (R) and now Senator McCaskill (D).

This could be hopeful news for the Republicans, who are challenging incumbent Democrats.

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