PPP released a poll today showing Carly behind Boxer by 52-43 and Whitman behind Brown 53-42. This assumes a fired up Democratic electorate that is exceeding its registration advantage (likely not, based on early voting and primary numbers) It assumes a D+13 electorate when registration is only D+12. Early voting and primary numbers both show a D+4 electorate. I create a D+5 electorate just in case.
So if Whitman and Fiorina are strong with Independents and you apply these same statistics to a more realistic turnout model:
That’s Boxer +1.9, similar to the advantage she has in early voting.
Meanwhile, for Whitman/Brown using the same turnout model:
That’s Brown +4.9, similar to what we’re seeing from Survey USA.
Take partisan polls with a grain of salt.