Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Applying PPP's Results To A Realistic Turnout Model

PPP released a poll today showing Carly behind Boxer by 52-43 and Whitman behind Brown 53-42. This assumes a fired up Democratic electorate that is exceeding its registration advantage (likely not, based on early voting and primary numbers) It assumes a D+13 electorate when registration is only D+12. Early voting and primary numbers both show a D+4 electorate. I create a D+5 electorate just in case.

PPP's Results:

Fiorina: 10/83/54
Boxer: 85/13/37

Whitman: 10/80/53
Brown: 86/14/39

Turnout: 47/34/19

So if Whitman and Fiorina are strong with Independents and you apply these same statistics to a more realistic turnout model:

D/R/I: 43/38/19

Carly 46.1
Boxer 48

That’s Boxer +1.9, similar to the advantage she has in early voting.

Meanwhile, for Whitman/Brown using the same turnout model:

Whitman 44.8
Brown 49.7

That’s Brown +4.9, similar to what we’re seeing from Survey USA.

Take partisan polls with a grain of salt.

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