Friday, April 9, 2010

The Summer Just Got More Interestinger

.
AZDB hasn’t the foggiest clue who will be nominated to replace Justice Stevens on the Supreme Court, but that doesn’t keep him (He just loves mentioning himself in the 3rd person) from PREVIEWING the winners and losers from the ensuing battle royale (with cheese) as it affects the upcoming 2010 elections. Don’t need a nominee for now; don’t want a nominee for now. We can be 90% certain that whoever it eventually is will be more favored by the American Criminal Liberties Union than by the Federalist Society. With that assumption in mind, what follows are whose prospects for 2010 are strengthened by a nomination battle over the summer (Using the Wise Latina nomination as a blueprint, hearings & votes will probably be wrapped up by mid-to-late July.), and whose are weakened, really wishing this nomination could be made in 2011 instead.

.
Winners Who Relish the Fight:

John McCain (Reelection, AZ) – In any other environment, Mr. Bipartisan would relish the opportunity to reach out to Democrats, organize a Gang-of-Whatever-Number, and show off for the media that he isn’t one of those nasty Republicans who actually opposes America’s lurch to the left. But with a serious primary in AZ that doesn’t approach until August 24, Mr. McCain has been forced to dance to his right this time. Though not on the Judiciary Committee, he will make sure AZ voters know the nominee-in-waiting is unacceptable to the Court. His primary opponent, former Congresscritter JD Hayworth will be left saying “Me too.”
.
Michael Bennet (D – CO) – The Senator from Colorado, who 95% of his constituents couldn't pick out of a police lineup, has to like being an incumbent Senator (though never elected in his own right) who can brandish his “progressive” credentials before an August 10 primary. Trying to fight off a top-tier opponent, former Speaker of the CO House Andrew Romanoff, Mr. Bennet now has a chance to prove to CO Democrats that 1) He really is a sitting U.S. Senator and 2) He is down for the left-wing struggle. While the latter may hurt him later in the general election, should he survive, he knows that to make it to the Super Bowl you first have to win the conference championship.
.
Tea Party Activists & Supporters – With an assist from GOP Senators, members of the tea party movement get to hear where the prospective nominee stands (if he/she dares answer related questions) on the constitutionality of Obamacare, states-rights issues, interstate commerce, and any other areas where they feel the U.S. government has been overstepping its bounds. Much to the Democrats’ chagrin, tea party supporters strut their patriotism, relevance and intensity through the summer, while keeping their elected representatives’ feet to the electoral fire.
.
Losers That Gain Nothing from a Nomination Battle:
.
Harry Reid – Any other incumbent senator on political life-support could use this nomination as an opportunity to break with President of same party and show off some independence for his small-state constituents back home. Just not this one. The Majority Leader is tied to the hip with said President, and his job for the summer is to maneuver the nominee through the Senate to confirmation. No way out of this box. And no way to reverse a double-digit deficit to little-known GOP opponents on this platform. It was nice knowing ya, Harry….... No, not really.
.
Arlen Specter – The PA Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat usually wets his drawers with excitement as a senior member of the Judiciary Committee, but this nomination, in a reelection year, is filled with pitfalls. Certainly he wanted to make a November showdown with Pat Toomey (assuming Mr. Specter can hold off Rep. Joe Sestak) about the challenger's perceived weaknesses. But televised hearings will remind PA voters of how old and tired the Keystone State senator looks (newer, younger blood playing to Mr. Toomey’s advantage), and Specter’s chances of firing off his infamous temper on live TV against vengeful Committee Republicans are only an "Act like a lady" moment away. Specter needed a summer out of the spotlight, but couldn’t get so lucky.
.
Cap and Charade Legislation – Obama and Congressional Democrats hoping to pass (read: jam through) historic anti-global-warming legislation just got killed by the calendar. Preparation for SCOTUS hearings, as well as the hearings themselves will take up over a month, time that will make a battle over the controversial plan, in an election year before summer recess no less, all but impossible. American industry rejoices in unison.

.
.
- AZDB

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Really, are the Tea Party Activists and Supporters ever losers? We represent everything that is good and decent in modern politics where everyone else represents all that is soulless and wrong. Go Palin!!!