Friday, April 16, 2010

HI-01: Special Election's Unique Dynamics

In Hawaii, long time Congressman Neil Abercrombie stepped down from his position to run for Governor. In the process, a special election takes place next month. Hawaii has the primary and the general all rolled into one. There are actually 2 Democrats and a Republican running for the same seat. This seat can be won without a majority.

Despite the district being heavily Democratic (Cook PVI of D+11), the 2 Democrats are splitting their vote evenly, with a racial element as the DCCC has gotten involved and is endorsing the white candidate, Case. Hannabusa, the Asian candidate, has her own list of endorsements and is speaking out against the Democratic establishment for favoring Case. The Republican, Djou, is strong with a unified Republican vote, hoping the Democrats beat each other up enough to allow him to squeak through with a plurality of votes.

This race is a true tossup. In 2008, Abercrombie won 70.6% of the vote, which means that Republican Djou is actually overperforming what a typical Republican does in this district (He is currently polling at 32 percent). It is also worth noting that before Abercrombie, a Republican Pat Saiki held the seat for 4 years. She was so popular she ran for Senate against sitting incumbent Senator Akaka, garnering 45% of the vote statewide. In 2004, this district also gave President Bush (R) 47% of the vote, so it is not overly partisan.

The latest DCCC released internal poll has Case and Djou tied at 32 percent and Hannabusa at 28 percent. The trend is definitely favoring the Republican.

We will do a formal analysis when more polls come in.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Djou looked great on Hannity last night. On to victory!