Post-Game Analysis: HI-01

HI-01 (Special):
Metric: Djou 37 - Case 27 - Hanabusa 24 (Djou +10)
Final: Djou 40 - Hanabusa 31 - Case 28 (Djou +10)

Our metric nailed the margin. We allocated undecideds and we overstated Djou's win by 7 points. Surprisingly, despite the strange nature of the race (mail in ballots only), and a surprisingly high participation (54%), Merriman did a good job nailing Djou's level of support and seeing Case's support drop in the last few weeks. Merriman was the only pollster to have Hanabusa 2nd, albeit with a tie.

Most Accurate Pollster: Merriman - Djou 40 - Hanabusa 26 - Case 26 (Djou +14)