PA-12: Burns Leads By 2%

5/9/10
PA-12 (Special Election)

Tim Burns (R) 42%
Mark Critz (D) 40%
Undecided 18%

Burns +2%


Race News:
A special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district results from the unfortunate death of Congressman Jack Murtha (D-PA), who had represented this district for several decades. He was an anomaly of sorts, as the district leaned Republican. The district itself is also the only district to go for John Kerry (D) in 2004 and John McCain in 2008, one of the few districts that became more conservative than in past elections.

All recent polling, even from left-leaning Daily Kos, has shown the Republican with a clear advantage. Charlie Cook has also moved his rating for this district to Lean GOP. The Republican is favored to pick up a majority of the undecideds due to the district's lean, demographics and overall disapproval numbers of Obama and Democrats.

The special election is in nine days, on May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS