Post-Game Analysis: HI-01

HI-01 (Special):
Metric: Djou 37 - Case 27 - Hanabusa 24 (Djou +10)
Final: Djou 40 - Hanabusa 31 - Case 28 (Djou +10)

Our metric nailed the margin. We allocated undecideds and we overstated Djou's win by 7 points. Surprisingly, despite the strange nature of the race (mail in ballots only), and a surprisingly high participation (54%), Merriman did a good job nailing Djou's level of support and seeing Case's support drop in the last few weeks. Merriman was the only pollster to have Hanabusa 2nd, albeit with a tie.

Most Accurate Pollster: Merriman - Djou 40 - Hanabusa 26 - Case 26 (Djou +14)

HI-01: Djou Leads By Double Digits

5/17/10
HI-01 (Special Election)

Charles Djou (R) 37%
Ed Case (D) 27%
Colleen Hanabusa 24%
Undecided 12%

Djou +10%


Race News:
The DNC pulls out of the Hawaii's first district race, signaling a momentum by Djou. In our current analysis, he increases his lead over Ed Case by double digits. Among those who have voted, according to the latest Merriman River Group poll, Djou garners 45% support.

After we allocate our undecided voters, we find a very similar model to the early voting patterns:

Charles Djou (R) 46%
Ed Case (D) 29%
Colleen Hanabusa 26%

Djou +17%

The special election is happening now via mail and ballots will be accepted for another five days, till May 22 at 6 PM. Voting centers are open from May 10 to May 21, but will be closed on May 22.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

HI-01: Djou Leads By 3%

5/9/10
HI-01 (Special Election)

Charles Djou (R) 34%
Ed Case (D) 31%
Colleen Hanabusa 23%
Undecided 12%

Djou +3%


Race News:
A special election in Hawaii's first district, home of Barack Obama, is likely to fall to Republicans due to a lack of a primary. 2 Democrats, perennial candidate Case and liberal darling, Hanabusa, are running and splitting the vote.

All recent polling, even internal polling from the DNC, shows the Republican, Djou, ahead. At this point, the Democratic establishment has stopped funding the race and it looks like Djou will pick up a healthy share of the undecideds.

The special election is happening now via mail and ballots will be accepted for another thirteen days, till May 22 at 6 PM. Voting centers are open from May 10 to May 21, but will be closed on May 22.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS