Primary and special election polling is usually unreliable and erratic and this Tuesday, it was no exception. We declined to allocate undecideds in most of the primaries, due to erratic polling. Our metric was off by 8 points at most, which made the difference in close races such as PA-12 (special), KY-Sen (Dem) and PA-Sen (Dem). We called every other winner.
This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.
KY-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Paul 51 - Greyson 32 (Paul +19)
Final: Paul 59 - Greyson 35 (Paul +24)
Our metric was off by 5 points. We allocated undecideds and were off by only 2 points. But overall, the pollsters, even the best in the business, missed the margin. Magellan, a partisan firm, surprisingly nailed the "Rand-slide".
Most Accurate Pollster: Magellan (R) - Paul 55 - Greyson 30 (Paul +25)
KY-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Mongiardo 38 - Conway 34 (Mongiardo +4)
Final: Conway 44 - Mongiardo 43 (Conway +1)
Our metric was off by 5 points. We declined to allocate undecideds in this race. Conway surged just a few weeks before election day and hit a wall. But he managed to squeak through with a 1 percent win and was arguably the 2nd most shocking outcome of Tuesday. No one showed Conway with a lead, but Survey USA did show a 1 point race.
Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Mongiardo 38 - Conway 37 (Mongiardo +1)
PA-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Specter 43 - Sestak 42 (Specter +0)
Final: Sestak 54 - Specter 46 (Sestak +8)
Our metric was off by 8 points. Specter led most polls and in the last week, showed a consolidation of his base, but that wasn't enough. The undecideds broke for Sestak in a big way. Heavy rain in Philadelphia suppressed turnout for Specter and his opponent's performance may have been overstated. Suffolk almost nailed the result.
Most Accurate Pollster: Suffolk - Sestak 49 - Specter 40 (Sestak +9)
PA-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Onorato 36 - Wagner 10 (Onorato +26)
Final: Onorato 45 - Wagner 24 (Onorato +21)
No surprises here. Our metric was off 5 points, but accurately predicted a win for Onorato in the 20's. Polling was all over the map. Rasmussen came closest but they were still 4 points off.
Most Accurate Pollster: Rasmussen - Onorato 34 - Wagner 17 (Onorato +17)
AR-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Lincoln 44 - Halter 34 (Lincoln +10)
Final: Lincoln 45 - Halter 43 (Lincoln +2)
Our metric was off 8 points. The surprises here lay with the margin of victory. Almost all pollsters showed a huge lead for Blanche Lincoln. Talk Business was the most conservative in its estimate for Lincoln's lead, but they were still 5 points off the final result.
Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Lincoln 38 - Halter 31 (Lincoln +7)
AR-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Boozman 46 - Holt 14 (Boozman +32)
Final: Boozman 53 - Holt 17 (Boozman +36)
Our metric was off 4 points. Talk Business did a great job in the GOP side. They were off by only 2 points.
Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Boozman 46 - Holt 8 (Boozman +38)
OR-Gov (GOP):
Metric: Dudley 39 - Alley 23 (Dudley +16)
Final: Dudley 40 - Alley 32 (Dudley +8)
Our metric was off 8 points. Survey USA, the nation's most reputable pollster, was surprisingly off. They overstated Dudley's support in a big way. Portland Tribune's poll, conducted around the same time, nailed the margin much better and were off by only 2 points.
Most Accurate Pollster: Portland Tribune - Dudley 33 - Alley 23 (Dudley +10)
OR-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Kitzhaber 57 - Bradbury 24 (Kitzhaber +33)
Final: Kitzhaber 66 - Bradbury 30 (Kitzhaber +36)
Our metric was off by 3 points. Survey USA nailed the Dem side of the Governor race. They were off by only 2 points.
Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Kitzhaber 59 - Bradbury 25 (Kitzhaber +34)
PA-12:
Metric: Burns 45 - Critz 45 (Tie)
Final: Critz 53 - Burns 45 (Critz + 8)
The metric was off by 8 points in this special election. PPP released the last poll of the cycle, showing a Burns lead of 1 point. Our metric actually showed a very slight Critz win, but we decided to allocate the undecideds and gave Burns an edge. The heated primary between Sestak and Specter drove up turnout in the district and Critz won by 8 points, essentially picking up 100% of undecideds according to the metric. None of the recent polling nailed the race, but a month old poll from Global Strategy nailed the final result.
Most Accurate Pollster: Global Strategy - Critz 45 - Burns 37 (Critz +8)
Showing posts with label 2010 PA-12 Special. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 PA-12 Special. Show all posts
Friday, May 21, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Live Blogging: Election Results
All times are EDT.
22:59
AR: 38% in. Lincoln leads 44-42. Boozman leads 50-16.
22:30
AR: 20% in. Lincoln leads 48-39. Boozman leads 52-16.
PA-12: Critz wins special election. Burns concedes.
22:27
PA-12: 76% in. Critz leads 54-44.
22:16
Let's re-cap the winners:
PA-Gov:
Corbett (R) vs. Onorato (D)
PA-Sen:
Toomey (R) vs. Sestak (D)
KY-Sen:
Paul (R) vs. Conway (D)
Now, on to AR and OR.
22:14
PA: AP declares Sestak winner of PA Democratic primary.
22:11
PA-12: 51% in. Critz leads 55-43.
22:06
AR: 6% in. Lincoln leads 50-38. Boozman leads 52-14.
PA: 53% in. Sestak leads 53-47.
22:04
KY: Conway declared winner in Dem primary. Wins 44-43. He will face off Rand Paul in November.
21:52
KY: 96% in. Conway leads 44-43.
PA: 40% in. Sestak now leads 51-49. Most of Philadelphia has reported (Specter's stronghold). Sestak likely to take the nomination.
21:49
PA: 37% in. Sestak takes a slim lead for the first time, but still tied 50-50.
21:46
PA: 36% in. Specter and Sestak still tied 50-50.
21:42
PA: AP declares Corbett winner in GOP Governor primary. No surprise there.
PA-12: 13% in. Democrat Critz leads 59-39.
21:35
PA: 30% in. Specter and Sestak tied 50-50.
21:30
KY: 90% in. Conway leads 45-43.
PA: 24% in. Specter leads 51-49. Sestak is closing in.
21:24
AR: 1% in. Lincoln leads 48-40. Boozman leads 51-14.
KY: 87% in. Conway leads 45-42.
PA: 19% in. Specter leads 52-48.
21:06
KY: 83% in. Conway leads 46-41.
PA: 11% in. Specter leads 55-45.
20:54
PA: 3% in. Specter leads 65-35.
20:48
KY: 74% in. Conway leads 47-41. Mongiardo closing in. Too close to call at this point.
20:39
AR: Early returns show Lincoln ahead 43-41. Boozman leads 35-22.
20:35
PA: Less than 1% in. Specter ahead of Sestak 66-34.
20:33
AR: Polls have just closed.
PA: Corbett and Toomey lead on the GOP side (no surprises). We probably won't report on these sure winners.
20:32
KY: 60% in. Conway leads 47.7-40.2.
PA: Polls have closed. Results coming in.
20:17
KY: 49% in. Conway leads 48.2-39.7
20:05
KY: 42% in. Conway leads 48.7-39.3.
20:01
KY: 41% in. Conway leads 49.0-39.1. Lead is shrinking.
19:47
Rand Paul declared winner by AP.
19:46
KY: 36% in. Paul leads 58.9-36.5. Conway leads 48.6-38.9.
19:37
KY: 26% in. Paul leads 58.3-37.1. Conway leads 49.6-37.8.
19:29
KY: 16% in. Paul leads 51.6-34.0. Conway leads 47.0-40.3.
19:22
KY: 14% in. Paul leads 51.5-33.9. Conway leads 46.7-40.4.
19:17
KY: 13% in. Paul leads 51.3-33.6. Conway leads 47.2-40.0. The Democrat side is fluctuating wildly.
22:59
AR: 38% in. Lincoln leads 44-42. Boozman leads 50-16.
22:30
AR: 20% in. Lincoln leads 48-39. Boozman leads 52-16.
PA-12: Critz wins special election. Burns concedes.
22:27
PA-12: 76% in. Critz leads 54-44.
22:16
Let's re-cap the winners:
PA-Gov:
Corbett (R) vs. Onorato (D)
PA-Sen:
Toomey (R) vs. Sestak (D)
KY-Sen:
Paul (R) vs. Conway (D)
Now, on to AR and OR.
22:14
PA: AP declares Sestak winner of PA Democratic primary.
22:11
PA-12: 51% in. Critz leads 55-43.
22:06
AR: 6% in. Lincoln leads 50-38. Boozman leads 52-14.
PA: 53% in. Sestak leads 53-47.
22:04
KY: Conway declared winner in Dem primary. Wins 44-43. He will face off Rand Paul in November.
21:52
KY: 96% in. Conway leads 44-43.
PA: 40% in. Sestak now leads 51-49. Most of Philadelphia has reported (Specter's stronghold). Sestak likely to take the nomination.
21:49
PA: 37% in. Sestak takes a slim lead for the first time, but still tied 50-50.
21:46
PA: 36% in. Specter and Sestak still tied 50-50.
21:42
PA: AP declares Corbett winner in GOP Governor primary. No surprise there.
PA-12: 13% in. Democrat Critz leads 59-39.
21:35
PA: 30% in. Specter and Sestak tied 50-50.
21:30
KY: 90% in. Conway leads 45-43.
PA: 24% in. Specter leads 51-49. Sestak is closing in.
21:24
AR: 1% in. Lincoln leads 48-40. Boozman leads 51-14.
KY: 87% in. Conway leads 45-42.
PA: 19% in. Specter leads 52-48.
21:06
KY: 83% in. Conway leads 46-41.
PA: 11% in. Specter leads 55-45.
20:54
PA: 3% in. Specter leads 65-35.
20:48
KY: 74% in. Conway leads 47-41. Mongiardo closing in. Too close to call at this point.
20:39
AR: Early returns show Lincoln ahead 43-41. Boozman leads 35-22.
20:35
PA: Less than 1% in. Specter ahead of Sestak 66-34.
20:33
AR: Polls have just closed.
PA: Corbett and Toomey lead on the GOP side (no surprises). We probably won't report on these sure winners.
20:32
KY: 60% in. Conway leads 47.7-40.2.
PA: Polls have closed. Results coming in.
20:17
KY: 49% in. Conway leads 48.2-39.7
20:05
KY: 42% in. Conway leads 48.7-39.3.
20:01
KY: 41% in. Conway leads 49.0-39.1. Lead is shrinking.
19:47
Rand Paul declared winner by AP.
19:46
KY: 36% in. Paul leads 58.9-36.5. Conway leads 48.6-38.9.
19:37
KY: 26% in. Paul leads 58.3-37.1. Conway leads 49.6-37.8.
19:29
KY: 16% in. Paul leads 51.6-34.0. Conway leads 47.0-40.3.
19:22
KY: 14% in. Paul leads 51.5-33.9. Conway leads 46.7-40.4.
19:17
KY: 13% in. Paul leads 51.3-33.6. Conway leads 47.2-40.0. The Democrat side is fluctuating wildly.
Monday, May 17, 2010
PA-12: Toss-Up - Slight Edge To GOP
5/17/10
PA-12 (Special Election)
Tim Burns (R) 45%
Mark Critz (D) 45%
Undecided 10%
Race News:
There are 10% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:
Tim Burns (R) 51%
Mark Critz (D) 49%
Burns +2
A week is an eternity in politics. Just a week ago, it looked like the Republican was sure to pick up this seat, due to the nature of the special election and the district's demographics. However, with the primary election for Senate held the same day, a heated primary on the Democratic side between incumbent Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, is putting more attention to this race, mostly from Democrats. Pollsters disagree on the extent of this event's effect on the turnout model.
Burns, the Republican, is leading in the latest poll, done by PPP, a Democratic pollster. He consistently receives about 20 percent of Democrats, has double digit leads with Independents and consolidates his Republican base. Similar models have given Republicans Scott Brown, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's races, despite significant disadvantages in registration in those states. We will likely see a similar scenario with Burns, but will not be surprised if Critz prevails.
This will be a true test of the Get-Out-The-Vote mechanisms of both parties.
The special election is tomorrow, on May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)
-FSHS
PA-12 (Special Election)
Tim Burns (R) 45%
Mark Critz (D) 45%
Undecided 10%
Race News:
There are 10% Undecided Likely Voters. After allocating our undecided voters, we get:
Tim Burns (R) 51%
Mark Critz (D) 49%
Burns +2
A week is an eternity in politics. Just a week ago, it looked like the Republican was sure to pick up this seat, due to the nature of the special election and the district's demographics. However, with the primary election for Senate held the same day, a heated primary on the Democratic side between incumbent Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, is putting more attention to this race, mostly from Democrats. Pollsters disagree on the extent of this event's effect on the turnout model.
Burns, the Republican, is leading in the latest poll, done by PPP, a Democratic pollster. He consistently receives about 20 percent of Democrats, has double digit leads with Independents and consolidates his Republican base. Similar models have given Republicans Scott Brown, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell's races, despite significant disadvantages in registration in those states. We will likely see a similar scenario with Burns, but will not be surprised if Critz prevails.
This will be a true test of the Get-Out-The-Vote mechanisms of both parties.
The special election is tomorrow, on May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)
-FSHS
Sunday, May 9, 2010
PA-12: Burns Leads By 2%
5/9/10
PA-12 (Special Election)
Tim Burns (R) 42%
Mark Critz (D) 40%
Undecided 18%
Burns +2%
Race News:
A special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district results from the unfortunate death of Congressman Jack Murtha (D-PA), who had represented this district for several decades. He was an anomaly of sorts, as the district leaned Republican. The district itself is also the only district to go for John Kerry (D) in 2004 and John McCain in 2008, one of the few districts that became more conservative than in past elections.
All recent polling, even from left-leaning Daily Kos, has shown the Republican with a clear advantage. Charlie Cook has also moved his rating for this district to Lean GOP. The Republican is favored to pick up a majority of the undecideds due to the district's lean, demographics and overall disapproval numbers of Obama and Democrats.
The special election is in nine days, on May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)
-FSHS
PA-12 (Special Election)
Tim Burns (R) 42%
Mark Critz (D) 40%
Undecided 18%
Burns +2%
Race News:
A special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district results from the unfortunate death of Congressman Jack Murtha (D-PA), who had represented this district for several decades. He was an anomaly of sorts, as the district leaned Republican. The district itself is also the only district to go for John Kerry (D) in 2004 and John McCain in 2008, one of the few districts that became more conservative than in past elections.
All recent polling, even from left-leaning Daily Kos, has shown the Republican with a clear advantage. Charlie Cook has also moved his rating for this district to Lean GOP. The Republican is favored to pick up a majority of the undecideds due to the district's lean, demographics and overall disapproval numbers of Obama and Democrats.
The special election is in nine days, on May 18.
*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)
-FSHS
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