"Oh No, They Didn't": Possible Midterm Upsets

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One way to sniff out a DemocRAT is by the stench of entitlement (as pungent as a metrosexual's cologne). From health care to welfare to seats in government, there is nothing more priceless than a Democrat's face when handed a judgment of "NO."

The following seats in bright blue states are understood in Democrat circles to be "safe" seats. About as safe as the Martha Coakley/Ted Kennedy Senate seat in Massachusetts two months ago, I say...

I plan on running into the following 4 politicians in the Customer Service line at Bed, Bath and Beyond when they return their drapes in November. (H/T: AZDB)

1. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)

Part of New York's own little dynastic legacy, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, looks set to follow in his father's footsteps. He has been flexing his political muscle, and partisan New York Democrats have swooned on cue. In addition, post-Pataki-era Republicans have struggled with their footing in the once-hospitable Empire State.

REALITY CHECK: The harsh odors emanating from the New York Democrat Party's scandals (Eric Massa, Charlie Rangel and David Paterson) are rubbing off on Cuomo. His approvals are now down to 54%, not so swoon-worthy anymore. Add to that, his likely GOP challenger is former Congressman Rick Lazio, who has previously run statewide (receiving a respectable 43% vs. former First Lady and future Senator Hillary Clinton in 2000).

2. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Attorney General Blumenthal, now the presumptive nominee for Senate in Connecticut, jumped at the chance to replace longtime incumbent Chris Dodd (D-Conn), who bailed from seeking another term amid tanking re-election numbers. This "bait and switch" tactic relies on the assumption that the voters are stupid and willing to forget the Senator's scandals. Worked well for Republicans in 2006 and 2008. Oh, wait....

REALITY CHECK: Despite the AG being a popular figure in Connecticut, the fresh scent of scandal from Dodd, if capitalized on effectively by moderate Republican Rob Simmons, could lead to a real race in a state that used to be reliably Republican. CT continues to elect Republican governors like Jodi Rell, who is currently one of the most popular governors in the country. So wipe that creepy smile off your face, Dick!

3. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Senator Patrick Murray may need to take a break from the tennis courts and carpool to actually campaign. Currently in a light blue state that went for Obama by 17 points in 2008, "the mom in tennis shoes" didn't think she had anything to worry about. Hence, she went ahead and voted for health care "reform" and the Not-So-Stimulating "Stimulus" on the Senate floor, while simultaneously organizing - via cell phone - play dates and tennis tournaments with Maria Cantwell (when she's not running around with married men who work for the NY Times).

REALITY CHECK: Much of the Evergreen State outside of Seattle is conservative, and this is where the likely electorate will be more heavily drawn from this year. (Washington also experienced the biggest Dem to GOP swing in the 1994 elections.) Patty Murray is polling behind two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, and her current approval rating stands at 43%, according to the most reliable state pollster in the business, Survey USA. Anonymous, unnamed sources say she thinks it's because of her cooking. She promises to go easy on the salt next time around.

4. Diane Denish (D-NM)

In another bait and switch, this time following embarrassing scandals surrounding current Governor Bill "Pay to Play" Richardson, Diane Denish takes the baton as the only announced candidate in the NM-Governor race for the DemocRATS. Diane has already been interrupting Richardson's meetings to pick color schemes with her interior designer; though not surprising, as Obama won this normally swing state handily in 2008 by 15 points in a strong national anti-GOP environment.

REALITY CHECK: But now it's 2010, and Obama's approval ratings are below 50% in this state that went for Bush narrowly in 2004. No polling has been done on the NM-Gov race but it would not be surprising if the Republicans nominate announced-candidate Pete Domenici Jr. in November and win by riding an increasing anti-Dem wave. Anonymous, unnamed sources say that Denish will be going on a ski trip with Martha Coakley (D-MA) in the last two weeks of October. She says she may even try to snowboard.

- SNRK