Post-Game Analysis: GA-Gov Primary (GOP)

Primary polling in the Georgia race was surprisingly right on the mark. After starting off the month of July behind in the polls, Karen Handel surged to the lead and won a plurality of voters.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

GA-Gov Primary (Rep):
Metric: Handel 30 - Deal 19 (Handel +11)
Final: Handel 34 - Halter 23 (Handel +11)

Our metric was right on the mark. With polls showing varying Handel leads, none of the pollsters nailed the margin. But we did. :) Oxendine severely underperformed and essentially picked up no undecided voters from our metric. (We nailed his percentage) Johnson was at 14 percent and ended up in 3rd place, garnering 20 percent of the vote.

Most Accurate Pollster: Insider Advantage - Handel 24 - Deal 16 (Handel +8)

7/20/10 Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)

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Race Prediction (Final) -

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Using the last week's slew of polls, opinions from unnamed, anonymous experts on Georgia politics, and factors such as momentum and endorsements (which tend to go hand-in-hand when an endorsement comes from a former governor of a chilly, Arctic state), AZDB is willing to put his powers-of-prediction reputation on the line in a clustered gubernatorial primary. Using Electionology's final metric for the GA GOP Primary and allocating the remaining "undecided" and "other" voters, here is the final prediction for the results come Tuesday night (Remember, top 2 go to runoff in August):.

Karen Handel 40%

Nathan Deal 22%

John Oxendine 17%

Eric Johnson 15%

Other 6%

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Handel +18% (1st)

Deal +5 (2nd)

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- AZDB

7/19/10
Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)

Karen Handel 30%
Nathan Deal 19%
John Oxendine 17%
Eric Johnson 14%
Other 6%
Undecided 14%

Handel +11%

Race News:
What a race. The frontrunner John Oxendine has fallen to third place and likely won't make runoff. We predict Handel and Deal to make it to the runoff. Karen Handel received a "Mama Grizzly" endorsement from Palin, who demonstrated the same magic in her Nikki Haley endorsement in South Carolina. Her candidate here in Georgia, Karen Handel, has since surged in the polls and is now the clear frontrunner. The runoff will be another exciting race to watch.

The primary election is tomorrow, July 20. (Posting this at 2:50 AM PDT, so technically the election is today)

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS