Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Post-Game Analysis: GA-Gov Primary (GOP)

Primary polling in the Georgia race was surprisingly right on the mark. After starting off the month of July behind in the polls, Karen Handel surged to the lead and won a plurality of voters.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

GA-Gov Primary (Rep):
Metric: Handel 30 - Deal 19 (Handel +11)
Final: Handel 34 - Halter 23 (Handel +11)

Our metric was right on the mark. With polls showing varying Handel leads, none of the pollsters nailed the margin. But we did. :) Oxendine severely underperformed and essentially picked up no undecided voters from our metric. (We nailed his percentage) Johnson was at 14 percent and ended up in 3rd place, garnering 20 percent of the vote.

Most Accurate Pollster: Insider Advantage - Handel 24 - Deal 16 (Handel +8)

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