Though I made clear my opposition to O’Donnell's candidacy, I have to give props to anyone that can run a campaign and take down an institution like Castle. Such is the life of politics.
Nothing has changed but I will not badmouth her at this point and focus on her positives. I don’t believe in propping up candidates like O’Donnell. Yes, she’s a trainwreck. But she’s OUR trainwreck now and I stand by her.
WHY DID CASTLE LOSE?
I understand Delaware is a 33/33/33 type state but if there’s one group of people I blame for this loss, it’s the moderates who switched their registration to Independent from Republican and tipped the election to O’Donnell. If Moderates really cared about improving politics and finding their voice, they should have registered Republican and fought for influence in our party. Instead, they were lazy.
The fact that Independents couldn’t vote in the primary was their own doing. They switched, they abandoned the party so they have no say in the GOP. They put themselves in that situation. And when they were awakened to vote, it was too late. Everyone needs to be engaged in the political process if we want to reign in government.
Castle had no route by the time he realized it was a race. The movement was bigger than him or O’Donnell.
1. He could have ignored her and she would have won.
2. He could have told the RNC to chill out on their attacks and he would have looked weak.
3. He could have gone nastier and motivated the other side more.
Castle is a RINO (and I do not use that word in derogatory fashion) in that all these years, he’s been counting on I and D voters to put him in office.
The problem is that he and his Moderate base expected a coronation. Starting in 2009, he should have made voter efforts to reach moderate Independents and told them to register Republican. That was his only route to victory. But you don’t just neglect your state GOP and expect the remaining base (you have little in common with) to vote for you. That's bad business.
I hang it on Castle and the moderate movement that doesn’t know how to organize and just bitch/whine when things don’t go their way. The Cap/Trade vote was just one of many straws.
The primary tested his fortitude and the Castle had a shitty foundation.
THE NRSC STRATEGY
There are two wings: (1) the wing of "I hate the establishment (RNC, NRSC, etc). Incumbents must go down" and (2) the wing that is only concerned with winning races and getting more Republicans in. Both are flawed.
A lot on here are going to act like the RNC dumping her is such a mean thing to do. It is the wise, strategic thing to do.
“Oh, those damn RINOs!” I don’t subscribe to that simplistic crap some are espousing. The RNC is making the right move and letting the Tea Party do its thing. Both elements must work together and balance each other out to be effective causes. It’s easy to go and rewrite history, and say Brown’s wasn’t a Tea Party victory in Massachusetts. It was RNC and Tea Party working in perfect harmony to pull off the impossible.
I’ve met Cornyn and have heard his personal story. As you understand politics and people, you realize that perception is just that. It’s not necessarily reality. NRSC’s job is to win. Nothing personal.
NRSC steps out of the race and lets O’Donnell be the grassroots poster child, lets her raise copious amounts money and if she becomes competitive and if it’s financially viable, the NRSC comes in and helps OD cross the finish line. Contrary to what the Tea Party grassroots would claim, I doubt the NRSC is as emotionally invested. They have a job to do: it’s to win races. The prudent thing to do now is to modify your strategy and that’s what the NRSC is doing.
The people who cut checks to campaign causes are emotional voters. The ones that really want to stick it to the establishment and will take this statement as a personal affront. The NRSC knows that.
The worst thing they could do right now to dampen momentum is to endorse O’Donnell and ruin her “street cred” so to speak.
They will fall back in line if/when she raises enough to be competitive against Coons.
THE ROAD AHEAD
The best strategy for Republicans to take the Delaware seat is a dead one but for argument's sake, I'll lay it out. I would encourage Mike Castle to run as an Independent or write-in as this helps either him or O’Donnell win the seat (Castle would bring down Coons’ total for O’Donnell or cruise to victory himself).
However, that is moot as he has declined to do so and despite what many say here, I believe he is an honorable man as evidenced by the way he decided to stick to his moderate guns during his campaign. His concession speech will also give an insight into his character. He’s a true principled moderate, not like Crist or McCain, as much as most voters want to lump him in with the 2 aforementioned politicians drunk on power. You can put Murkowski in that mix.
I think O’Donnell is a very articulate woman. She is also a marketing expert. Little subtle things she did like put a black man behind her in the victory speech, the way she ran her primary, etc. She may win despite her resume.
Anyone who claims they know the November outcome and that she’ll definitely lose obviously doesn’t know politics and is full of crap.
Harry Reid's "Penthouse" Pet
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