.Eighty-one percent (81%) of Colorado Republicans support Buck, while 82% of the state’s Democrats line up behind Bennet. Voters not affiliated with either major party give a 23-point advantage to the Republican.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Breaking Down the Polls - Colorado Senate
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Applying PPP's Results To A Realistic Turnout Model
PPP released a poll today showing Carly behind Boxer by 52-43 and Whitman behind Brown 53-42. This assumes a fired up Democratic electorate that is exceeding its registration advantage (likely not, based on early voting and primary numbers) It assumes a D+13 electorate when registration is only D+12. Early voting and primary numbers both show a D+4 electorate. I create a D+5 electorate just in case.
PPP's Results:
D/R/I
Fiorina: 10/83/54
Boxer: 85/13/37
Whitman: 10/80/53
Brown: 86/14/39
Turnout: 47/34/19
So if Whitman and Fiorina are strong with Independents and you apply these same statistics to a more realistic turnout model:
D/R/I: 43/38/19
Carly 46.1
Boxer 48
That’s Boxer +1.9, similar to the advantage she has in early voting.
Meanwhile, for Whitman/Brown using the same turnout model:
Whitman 44.8
Brown 49.7
That’s Brown +4.9, similar to what we’re seeing from Survey USA.
Take partisan polls with a grain of salt.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Wave Elections: CA & WA 2010 = VA & MO 2006
California has experienced consistent polling on two fronts. Incumbent Boxer (D) has been consistently under 50 percent and has posted consistent leads. We now see our first poll in a while that shows Fiorina pulling ahead 3 points on October 19. In the polls she still posts a deficit, Fiorina also has closed her margins and now the deficit is only 1 point in the RCP average.
This is very similar to the Virginia senate race in 2006 when now Senator Webb (D) defeated incumbent George Allen (R) by a tiny margin. What's interesting and similar is that aside from 2 polls in the summer, the incumbent Allen held the lead until Webb started to turn the race around last minute on October 20, 2006. Hopefully, Fiorina is able to follow the Webb trend and cruise to victory.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html#polls
Washington, on the other hand, has experienced see-sawing polling. One week, Rossi (R) will have the lead and the next a slew of polls show incumbent Murray (D) ahead.
This almost mirrors polling in Missouri's senate race in 2006 between Talent (R) and now Senator McCaskill (D).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/mo/missouri_senate_race-12.html#polls
This could be hopeful news for the Republicans, who are challenging incumbent Democrats.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
The Importance of Strategic Voting
Get informed! And yes, numbers matter.
This is a bipartisan message.
2010 Senate Ratings: Overall Senate Still A Toss-Up
CT-Sen: Toss-up to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
NY-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem (favors Dems)
WV-Sen: Toss-up to Lean GOP (favors GOP)
The GOP sees chances at Gilibrand's seat diminish this week, while CT moves away from GOP reach. Meanwhile, WV polling shows a strengthening position for Raese and and Fiorina gaining ground in CA.
Current Projections (October 1, 2010):
GOP: 49
No Race: 23 | Safe: 14 | Likely: 7 | Lean: 5 |
Dem: 48
No Race: 40 | Safe: 5 | Likely: 2 | Lean: 1 |
Toss-Ups: 3
SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy) | LIKELY DEM DE (Open) NY (Gilibrand) | LEAN DEM CT (Open) | TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WA (Murray) | LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) KY (Open) PA (Open) WV ' (Open) | LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold) | SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open) |
Friday, October 8, 2010
2010 Gov Ratings: Minor Movements
HI-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
NH-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
NM-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
NY-Gov: Lean Dem to Likely Dem (Favors Dems)
Current Projections (October 9, 2010):
GOP: 30
No Race: 6 | Safe: 12 | Likely: 5 | Lean: 7 |
Dem: 13
No Race: 7 | Safe: 1 | Likely: 2 | Lean: 3 |
Toss-Ups: 7
SAFE DEM AR (Beebe) | LIKELY DEM CO (Open) NY (Open) | LEAN DEM CT (Open) NH (Lynch) RI (Open) | TOSS UP CA (Open) HI (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) OR (Open) VT (Open) | LEAN GOP FL (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) OH (Strickland) TX (Perry) WI (Open) | LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) NM (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open) | SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open) |
Friday, October 1, 2010
2010 Gov Ratings: Uncertainty Prevails
CA-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)
HI-Gov: Safe Dem to Likely Dem (Favors GOP)
NY-Gov: Safe Dem to Lean Dem (Favors GOP)
ME-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
MN-Gov: Lean Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
NH-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
PA-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)
RI-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
VT-Gov: Lean GOP to Toss-up (Favors Dems)
There are more toss-ups. The Dems move two Northeast seats and California in their favor, as the states regress back to their more liberal means. Primary wins put Hawaii and New York in more competitive categories in favor of the GOP while the GOP solidifies their lead in ME, NM and PA.
Current Projections (October 1, 2010):
GOP: 29
No Race: 6 | Safe: 12 | Likely: 5 | Lean: 6 |
Dem: 13
No Race: 7 | Safe: 1 | Likely: 2 | Lean: 3 |
Toss-Ups: 8
SAFE DEM AR (Beebe) | LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open) | LEAN DEM CT (Open) NY (Open) RI (Open) | TOSS UP CA (Open) FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) NH (Lynch) OR (Open) VT (Open) | LEAN GOP GA (Open) IL (Quinn) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) TX (Perry) WI (Open) | LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open) | SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open) |
2010 Senate Ratings: GOP & Dems Make Gains, It's A Wash
CA-Sen: Toss-up to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
CT-Sen: Lean Dem to Toss-up (favors GOP)
DE-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely Dem (favors Dems)
KY-Sen: Likely GOP to Lean GOP (favors Dems)
NC-Sen: Likely GOP to Safe GOP (favors GOP)
NH-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
NY-Sen: Likely Dem to Lean Dem (favors GOP)
WA-Sen: Lean GOP to Toss-up (favors Dems)
WI-Sen: Toss-up to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
WV-Sen: Lean Dem to Toss-up (favors GOP)
Despite the political earthquake of Christine O'Donnell upset and the subsequent strengthening of the Democrat position in Delaware, the GOP makes significant gains in WV and WI. Overall, it's a wash and we're right back to where we were a few weeks ago. There are some minor movements with WA and CA's latest polling showing movement to Dems and a surprise in Kentucky (polling has tightened).
However, the GOP has put new seats into play with DioGuardi's strengthening position in New York. Connecticut is also now a toss-up race.
Current Projections (October 1, 2010):
GOP: 48
No Race: 23 | Safe: 14 | Likely: 7 | Lean: 4 |
Dem: 48
No Race: 40 | Safe: 5 | Likely: 1 | Lean: 2 |
Toss-Ups: 4
SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy) | LIKELY DEM DE (Open) | LEAN DEM CA (Boxer) NY (Gilibrand) | TOSS UP CT (Open) NV (Reid) WA (Murray) WV ' (Open) | LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) KY (Open) PA (Open) | LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold) | SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open) |