Monday, August 23, 2010

WA-Sen: Survey USA vs. Rasmussen

In Washington state, the heated Senate race between Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray is showing some wildly polarized polling.

I wanted to make sense of the Survey USA poll that shows Rossi with a 52-45 (7 point lead) and the Rasmussen poll showing Murray with a 50-46 lead. An 11 point difference.

But let’s compare Survey USA and Rasmussen’s track record. in Washington state races. Apples to apples.


2008 President – Obama vs. McCain
Actual result: 58-41 (Obama +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 56-40 (Obama +16)
Ras’ final poll: 54-43 (Obama +11)

2008 Governor – Gregoire vs. Rossi
Actual result: 53-47 (Gregoire +6)
SUSA’s final poll: 52-46 (Gregoire +6)
Ras’ final poll: 50-48 (Gregoire +2)

2006 Senate – Cantwell vs. McGavick
Actual result: 57-40 (Cantwell +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 54-41 (Cantwell +13)
Ras’ final poll: 54-42 (Cantwell +12)


The numbers should speak for themselves. Plus, SUSA is not known to the wild fluctuations Rasmussen has in its state polling, throughout a cycle.

If Mason Dixon (which was as accurate as Survey USA) shows Murray with a lead in WA, then I will consider Murray being ahead.

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