Wednesday, August 25, 2010

FL-House: Ominous Environment For Democrats

Last night, Florida had its primary. Marco Rubio won the GOP nomination and Kendrick Meek won the Dem nomination. No surprises there, and Rubio goes in to the General Election favored.

But I will focus in on the House results. There are currently 5 contested seats:

FL-2 (D - Boyd)
FL-8 (D - Grayson)
FL-22 (D - Klein)
FL-24 (D - Kosmas)
FL-25 (R - Open)

The last 3 had amazing turnouts on the Republican side, where R ballots outnumbered D ballots 2 to 1 in all three races. These races are now Republican favored for Allen West in FL-22, Sandy Adams in FL-24 and David Rivera in FL-25. We will rate these races Leans GOP.

In FL-2, Boyd faced a strong primary challenge from a very un-funded challenger who made the race a 3 point one. Incumbent Boyd will be in danger in November, but total D ballots still topped the total R ballots - 82,000 to 60,000. We will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-Dem.

In FL-8, outspoken Democrat Alan Grayson faces the consequences of his outrageous behavior and the fundamentals of his swing district as the Republicans picked Daniel Webster, the strongest candidate in the GOP field. Winning a decisive 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field, along with great turnout numbers on the R side for this district, we will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-GOP.

Uncontested Seats

3 of Florida's 25 congressional districts are uncontested by Democrats this election: FL-4, FL-6 and FL-21.

FL-21 is the shocker. The Democrats made a big play for Lincoln Diaz-Balart's seat in this Hispanic-majority Miami-Dade R+5 district. It was listed as a Tossup but ultimately, Diaz-Balart won by 16 percent in 2008.

Shows how bad the environment is for Democrats when they're not even trying this cycle. I remember in 2008 the Democrats were touting the inroads they were making in the Republican Miami burbs. Now all I hear is crickets.

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