Monday, June 7, 2010

Pre-Game Analysis: June 8 Primary

10 states have primaries tomorrow: California, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia.

Arkansas also has their runoff tomorrow.

Most races have not been polled, but we will focus on just a few races that have had a lot of attention and polling:
AR-Sen Runoff (Dem)
CA-Gov (GOP)
CA-Sen (GOP)
IA-Gov (GOP)
NV-Sen (GOP)
NV-Gov (GOP)
SC-Gov (GOP)

AR-Sen (Dem):
Predicted Winner: Bill Halter

Bill Halter 48%
Blanche Lincoln (inc) 45%

Halter +3

Incumbent Blanche Lincoln battles challenger Lt Gov Bill Halter. Lincoln beat Halter in the primary, severely underperforming poll numbers. Despite a close race the first time around, all runoff polling has shown Bill Halter ahead by a few points. It seems to be a likely Halter win tomorrow. The 7 percent undecided is likely to break for the challenger.

CA-Gov (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Meg Whitman

Meg Whitman 57%
Steve Poizner 26%

Whitman +31

Despite being one of the most expensive primaries ever (both candidates are billionaires; Meg Whitman has spent almost $80 million in the primary alone), there is a clear winner, and that's Ebay CEO Meg Whitman. Steve Poizner gained some steam last month but faced with an onslaught of negative attack ads. Meg Whtiman survived the brief hiccup and now has a clear majority of GOP support and will take the GOP nomination tomorrow.

CA-Sen (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina 44%
Tom Campbell 22%
Chuck DeVore 15%

Fiorina +22

A month ago, Tom Campbell led the polls but was always at a funding disadvantage. This funding disadvantage, along with a Sarah Palin endorsement for Carly Fiorina, have led to sinking poll numbers in the last few weeks of the campaign for Campbell. Fiorina has gained support and is now the consistent frontrunner in polls, by over 20 points. There will likely be no surprises in this race.

IA-Gov (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Terry Branstad

Terry Branstad 52%
Bob Van Der Plaats 29%
Rod Roberts 10%

Branstad +23

Terry Branstad has consistently led polls over challenger Van Der Plaats. The Sarah Palin endorsement has added last minute steam to an already crushing lead. There will likely be no surprises tomorrow as the former governor grabs the GOP nomination.

NV-Gov (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Brian Sandoval

Brian Sandoval 46%
Jim Gibbons (inc) 29%
Mike Montandon 6%

Sandoval +17

Dismal approval ratings and favorability numbers for Jim Gibbons will doom his candidacy tomorrow as Brian Sandoval has led consistently (and over 50 percent) in polling. There should be no surprises as Sandoval cruises to election, in the primary and in the general against Rory Reid, on the Democrat side.

NV-Sen (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle 29%
Sue Lowden 27%
Danny Tarkanian 24%

Angle +2

A three-way race between Danny Tarkanian, Sue Lowden and Sharron Angle to challenge incumbent Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid, show a very volatile and unpredictable race. This is the only race tomorrow that is unpredictable. We predict that Angle and Lowden have attacked each other enough but Angle has the edge in polling, and there's a smaller chance that Tarkanian will pick up the undecideds. Former frontrunner Lowden does not look like she has a chance of pulling this off as her trend lines are pointing downwards, quickly. But who knows? This one's anyone's guess!

SC-Gov (GOP):
Predicted Winner: Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley 41%
Gresham Barrett 22%
Henry McMaster 16%
Andre Bauer 12%

Haley +19

Despite a slew of attacks from the Republican challengers, Nikki Haley has held consistent leads since the Sarah Palin endorsement and now, after two affairs accusations and a derogatory racial slur against her by challenger Andre Bauer's campaign, it seems Haley has actually come out stronger and more well-liked than before the attack machine. There is a chance she will avoid a runoff (her support seems to be around the low 40's - in SC, you need over 50 to avoid a runoff), but there will likely be a runoff, and her challenger would be Gresham Barrett.

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