Wednesday, February 24, 2010

2010 TX-Gov Primary: Perry Leads Comfortably

2/24/10 Electionology Rolling Average

Rick Perry 45%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 28%
Debra Medina 16%

Perry +17%

Race News:
The Texas Republican primary is probably one of the most highly anticipated primaries of 2010 as Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison takes on sitting Governor Rick Perry (who has kept the Governor's seat warm for the last 10 years).

Now that he is ahead, Rick Perry's goal is to garner over 50 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off. This is very likely, as Perry still has room to grow with the 11% Undecided voters. All he needs is 5% to get over the 50% hump. At this point, even if there is a runoff, we project Perry to win easily and comfortably.

Race Dynamics:
Several factors before next week's election are: (1) the potential collapse of Debra Medina's support, typical of many 3rd party candidates by election day and (2) whether those supporters go to Perry or Hutchison. We're already seeing this tightening as Perry picks up support in the latest Rasmussen poll, drawing 48% of primary support in today's poll, compared to 43% in last month's poll.



Bunu's Concerned said...

So FSHS - How's about a prediction on the race with 6 days to go? What is the final 3-way %s for all three candidates?

Electionology said...

Bunu - Based on our projections for today, we have Perry avoiding a runoff, by garnering 51% of the vote next week. We will have our final projections on Monday, the day before the election.