Introduction To Electionology's Polling Metric

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By clicking on the "Polling" tag, you will be able to filter polling-relevant material based on our in-house professional metric for race predictions.

PROCEDURE:

Our metric takes into account many factors to predict races: date of poll, sample size, nature of voters (Registered or Likely voters), reputation of the polling outfit and long-term race trends. Unlike other poll analysis metrics, we do not tweak data based on subjective reads of the race.

RESULTS:

Our metric predicted with full accuracy, the results of the MA special election and came very close in the NJ and VA Governor races:

Outside parentheses were our predictions (Inside parentheses are the actual results)

MA-Sen:
Brown (R) 50% (52%)
Coakley (D) 45% (47%)

FINAL: Brown +5 (Brown +5)

NJ-Gov:
Christie (R) 43% (48%)
Corzine (D) 41% (44%)

FINAL: Christie +2 (Christie +4)

VA-Gov:
McDonnell (R) 55% (59%)
Deeds (D) 41% (41%)

FINAL: McDonnell +14 (McDonnell +18)


We will begin our election season with the Texas governor race, scheduled on March 2, 2010.

- FSHS