Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Introduction To Electionology's Polling Metric

By clicking on the "Polling" tag, you will be able to filter polling-relevant material based on our in-house professional metric for race predictions.


Our metric takes into account many factors to predict races: date of poll, sample size, nature of voters (Registered or Likely voters), reputation of the polling outfit and long-term race trends. Unlike other poll analysis metrics, we do not tweak data based on subjective reads of the race.


Our metric predicted with full accuracy, the results of the MA special election and came very close in the NJ and VA Governor races:

Outside parentheses were our predictions (Inside parentheses are the actual results)

Brown (R) 50% (52%)
Coakley (D) 45% (47%)

FINAL: Brown +5 (Brown +5)

Christie (R) 43% (48%)
Corzine (D) 41% (44%)

FINAL: Christie +2 (Christie +4)

McDonnell (R) 55% (59%)
Deeds (D) 41% (41%)

FINAL: McDonnell +14 (McDonnell +18)

We will begin our election season with the Texas governor race, scheduled on March 2, 2010.


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