Jackass of the Week

.

Joe Sestak (D - Penn)

.

Amazing how nobody can get his story straight and just how divergent those stories have become. First Congressman Joe Sestak openly brags about how couldn't be bought off with a job offered by the Obama White House if he would just fold his tent in his bid to knock off incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D...no, R...no, no, D - PA). And not just any job, mind you. Secretary of the U.S. Navy, he claims. No small potatoes here.

.

Then, in the blue corner, Team Obama claims that no, Joe's just a little over his head. He was never offered a job to drop out of the race. Because Mr. Harvard Law Review knows that such an offer is akin to bribery, a felony. An impeachable offense if the Congress deems it such. So no, Joe was mistaken. Nobody in the Obama White House offered him a job. That's the ticket. Move on folks, nothing to see here.

.

Now enter Slick Willie Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion) to smooth over the mess that just wouldn't go away. Who better to take the rap for the whole mess than the disbarred, congenital-liar former President? Now Obama/Clinton want us to believe it was Clinton that went to Sestak to offer the unpaid position as member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. Quite a detour from Secretary of the Navy it appears. Add to it the punchline that Joe wasn't even eligible for the position he was reportedly offered (by being a sitting member of Congress), according to Byron York of The Washington Examiner. .

.

But Joe has taken the high moral ground by saying "I told President Clinton that my only consideration in getting into the Senate race or not was whether it was the right thing to do for Pennsylvania working families and not any offer.” Apparently BJ Clinton would never be confused with Don Corleone: Clinton makes an offer that Joe CAN refuse. And Sestak's still breathing days later. It appears the Clinton charm has worn off over the years..

.

Unfortunately for Mr. Sestak, this story will not go away, as it has sucked in both a former president and the current POTUS. And either the Congressman is telling the truth & both Presidents are lying (hardly a stretch on both), or he is lying about the nature of the job offer and is now open to an array attacks by his November opponent, Pat Toomey. Even worse, the lamestream media is asking some tough questions, as White House spokesman Robert Gibbs tries to change the subject as quick as possible. Next step in the DemocRAT formula to get past this: pin blame on George W Bush. After all, he's traveled through Pennsylvania numerous times, so his fingerprints have to be on this scandal somehow. Joe has just been too slow off the draw to shift the blame away from himself . He should learn a lesson from his potential Senate colleague, Richard Blumenthal, who knows the drill and isn't afraid to go on the attack himself. After all, like Sestak, he knows how deadly combat can be, having seen it firsthand.

.

Joe Sestak is still playing the political game here like it's for chairman of the Philly city council. Instead he's nominee of the DemocRAT Party for U.S. Senate, a seat his party can ill-afford to lose. And on a personal level, he's making this a contest between himself and the Chicago Machine, which has squashed much bigger bugs than Mr. Sestak in the past as a matter of routine. Unless Joe gets his story straight with the Obama admin & learns how to play ball, he can look forward to a nice spot underneath the Obama bus. Enjoy the ride, Joe.

.

- AZDB

Governor Palin: Announce Now

.

Sarah Palin should announce her 2012 presidential run. Right now. Not wait for the post-midterm-election, normal political "calculation" on when to announce her candidacy. Not faux-run and posture like they all do. Not wait for the Tea Party's rise and/or fall to see where the chips land.

.

When Obama and Palin went tit-for-tat weeks ago on nuclear policy, one might make the assumption the President was egging the Governor on; and if that is the case then you might assume that Palin threw it right back at him. What is a greater show of weakness? Hosting your own personal League of Nations to chat nuclear disarmament, or engaging a governor who at this point is only your 2012 election opponent in theory? And Palin won the public relations battle.....decisively.

.

Obama is in campaign mode he hopes until the latter part of 2015. With that, this year's campaign will be a clear referendum on "change we can believe in." Here is a change that most Americans would probably enjoy: Palin throwing out the notion of political "calculus," and reinventing it by announcing her candidacy. Why not? The non-radio-talk-show mainstream media have gone out of their way to portray her as a dimwitted, unqualified neophyte; and not only is Palin still standing but she is getting the President to engage her on foreign policy. Obama could not possibly be dumb enough to engage her again until he would absolutely have to in 2012.

.

So now that the mainstream media has failed in their portrayal of Palin, it is onto the Tea Party, which they are going out of their way to portray as illegitimate. The Tea Party, which adores her, is quite obviously anything but illegitimate, and it is possible and maybe even probable they will succeed in moving the Republican Party sufficiently to the right. In that case, booey for Palin, who will easily glide past the likes of Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, et al. in the party.

.

But what if they do not succeed? What if the Republican establishment succeeds in keeping the party at the center-right position where it now resides? This could be the only prickly point for Palin if she announces "early." Or would it? The grassroots movement that is the Tea Party has established and organized itself to the point now where it really only needs a national spokesman to legitimize itself as a viable third party. Who else other than Palin?

.

So again, why wouldn't Palin announce her candidacy right now? The Tea Party, to the chagrin of many media members, clearly is not going anywhere. Obama gift-wrapped her a platform to exercise her foreign policy chops. She is coming off multiple, high-exposure events including her most impacting speech to date at the Southern Conservative Leadership Conference. It comes down to her personal stock in political "calculation." She just seems above it. With the President himself obviously living in a world ruled by his own reelection "calculations," Palin should throw out the calculations and announce her candidacy by claiming, "No, Mr. President, this is change we can believe in."

.

- RDS

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - California

.

Next in our continuing "50 Best" series, and with much anticipation, we honor the hugely-important Golden State of California. Unlike the previous honoree Arkansas, which is rather new to the GOP brand after generations of reflexive Democrat voting, Cali offers numerous impressive GOP stories over the last 50 years. No doubt some of the potential honorable mentions would tower over the best representative in many of the smaller, less politically important states of the Union. But we're talking the massive state of Cali-freaking-fornia here. Over the last 50 years, the state has given the nation, on the Republican side alone, two future Presidents, 4 governors (all elected to multiple terms), two Supreme Court Justices (one of which was a former governor), 5 elected Senators, including a Majority Whip and a Minority Whip, and dozens of congressmen with decades of seniority on some of the heavyweight committees. The notion that Dick Nixon, Pete Wilson, Arnold S, and Earl Warren, among others, get kicked to the curb is testament to both the strength of the overall field, and how powerful the eventual honoree is.

.

With such a dramatic buildup (I know the suspense is killing all of you), the winner is...
.

Ronald Reagan - Former Governor and 40th President of the United States

.

Dubbed by his detractors and Washington insiders as just a novice, B-movie actor, Ronald Reagan's new career in politics took off after his "Time for Choosing" speech on behalf of 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater. Reagan, himself a former Democrat who claimed that the party left him instead of vice versa, gave what might be the most famous broadcasted political speech by an unelected citizen on October 27, 1964. The speech laid out his ideological conservative vision for smaller government, and complemented the summer convention speech given by Goldwater in San Francisco. The rest, as they say, is history.

.

Given almost no chance at the outset of his campaign to defeat the popular incumbent Edmund G "Pat" Brown in the 1966 California Governor's race, Reagan stunned the establishments of both parties will an incredible 16% victory, which amounted to almost a 1 million vote margin. After a rocky, but successful first term which included conflicts with the late-60s protest movement on university campuses, Reagan handily won reelection to a 2nd term in 1970, defeating Democrat sacrificial lamb Jesse M Unruh.

.

After his next term completed in 1975, Reagan spent a period in the so-called political wilderness before mounting an underdog campaign to unseat incumbent president Gerald Ford in the 1976 GOP Primary. Although he won a number of primaries later in the race, Reagan lost the nomination by a razor-thin margin: Ford's 1,187 delegates to Reagan's 1,070. After Ford lost a close race in the fall to Jimmy Carter, Reagan was set up comfortably to be the GOP heir-apparent in 1980, much to the chagrin of the Republican Party establishment. The malaise of the late 70s under Jimmy Carter, topped off by the weakness shown to the world via the Iran hostage crisis, was all the country could stand though, as Reagan defeated another incumbent handily, - this time in a three-way race - 50% for The Gipper to 41% for Carter.

.

Four years later it was "Morning in America," as Reagan continued his string of blowout victories, this time winning 49 of 50 states, 525 out of 538 electoral votes, and 59% national vote over Walter "Fritz" Mondale in 1984. No modern candidate of any party has seen such electoral success on a national scale over the last 50 years. His legacy includes a voting block that was termed "Reagan Democrats," named for the more blue-collar, culturally conservative, middle-class voters that crossed over in droves to vote for the "Great Communicator" instead of his more liberal opponents. He is also the first President since Andrew Jackson whose Vice President succeeded him by victory, not because of death. Many experts concede that George Bush Sr. won in large part as an extended 3rd term of his former running mate.

.

Though Reagan was succeeded as California Governor by the Democrat son of the man he defeated just eight years earlier, he laid the groundwork for future GOP success in the governors office in then 80s and 90s, as the party held the seat for 16 consecutive years. Reagan's electoral success in the state and helping keep the office GOP hands for so long are impressive accomplishments in a state that had billed itself from the 60s - forward as a "progressive" one.

.

For all his electoral accomplishments and his keeping the GOP brand in such good shape throughout the 80s and 90s both nationally and statewide, Ronald Wilson Reagan earns California's entry into the "50 Best" Electionology series.

.

Honorable Mention: Former Governor and Senator Pete Wilson; 1960 GOP Prez nominee, former President and VP, Richard Nixon.

.
Next Week: Colorado

.

.

- 50 Best

Jackass of the Week

.
"Agent Orange" Richard Blumenthal

.
By now, only political junkies living under a rock haven't heard the bombshell (Please pardon the numerous battle terms that are sure to follow.) story broken by the New York Times, which unearthed that prior claims by current AG and 2010 Senate candidate Dick Blumenthal (D - CONN) that he served in the Vietnam War were patently false. On numerous instances he wrapped himself in the service of real Vietnam soldiers, using the word "we" when describing the return of soldiers back to the states after service. And he has a documented history of saying he served "in" Vietnam, instead of "during" the Vietnam War years. (What is it about Democrats, and ones that spent years as lawyers learning to parse words, that we are supposed to believe they get confused on the use of the smallest, simplest words like "in" and "is?"). Though he never claimed he was on the front lines during the Tet Offensive or spent Christmas in Cambodia like a former recent presidential candidate, Mr. Blumenthal had skated through his political career with supporters and media alike (I repeat myself, sorry.) believing he had honorably served overseas IN the Vietnam War, not just doing his part in the Reserves thousands of miles away.

.

Quick: What does a good, high-profile DemocRAT do when caught embellishing his military record? Take his medicine like a man, apologize for lying all these years, then bow out gracefully? Of course not. The key word in the question was "DemocRAT." The patented strategy for this area of crisis management is as follows. 1) Claim the story a "hit piece," the charges are false, and most importantly, you, the honest Democrat, are victim of a malicious smear. 2) Call a press conference or another organized event whereby you can surround yourself with American flags and military veterans, authentic and/or phony (More on that in a minute.). 3) Insist you always told the truth, except on a few occasions where you "misspoke" or "misplaced words" that NEVER were intended to mislead anyone about the nature of your service. 4) Feign outrage that anyone would dare question your character, integrity, and service to the country while wearing any military uniform. And finally, 5) Remind everyone that the most important thing you have to do is return to doing the hard work "the people" demand. After following this recipe, any further investigations into the story become about "old news," and the investigators part of the "right-wing attack machine."

.

But what makes Mr. Blumental more than an ordinary Jackass on the heels of this story is that at least one of his surrounding "veterans" at his pathetic presser the other day was an already-outed phony soldier. The gentleman circled in red to Blumenthal's back right is actually William Joseph Trumpower, aka Elliott Storm.

Although he is an actual Vietnam vet, POW Network’s Phony Vets Database lists that Mr. Storm (or Trumpower, or Whats-his-face) claims a Bronze Star with Valor he never earned and a rank he never reached (claiming 2nd Lt.). Per the Database for Mr. Shitstorm: ACTUAL – National Defense Service Medal, Vietnam Campaign Medal, Vietnam Service Medal, Combat Action Ribbon, Purple Heart w/1*. Served 11 Oct 1968 to 30 Jan 1970 as a USMC rifleman (MOS 0311). Has enlisted service number (not officer’s).

.

And as a kicker, it turns out this phony soldier didn't just independently show up to offer his support to an embattled Blumenthal. According to The New Haven Independent,

Elliott Storm is a Blumenthal supporter. The campaign called him and asked him to show up; he called up his friends in the “Vet Pack” to join him, friends who, like him, travel around the country talking about ex-soldiers who contend with post traumatic stress syndrome.

.

Dick Blumenthal (who bears a strange resemblance to former NY Gov Elliot Spitzer), once the apple of Conn Dems eye after saving them from certain defeat of now-retiring Senator Chris Dodd, took a seat that was a lock to be retained by his party and likely to kept by him for as long as he wanted and made it a horse race for the fall, no matter who his GOP opponent. His non-apology apology that doubled down on arrogance, coupled with recruiting a press conference prop that is also a proven liar, and then expecting Connecticut voters to look past the entire matter and bless him with a U.S. Senate seat, rightfully earns Connecticut AG Richard Blumenthal our Jackass of the Week.
.

.

.
- AZDB

Post-Game Analysis: HI-01

HI-01 (Special):
Metric: Djou 37 - Case 27 - Hanabusa 24 (Djou +10)
Final: Djou 40 - Hanabusa 31 - Case 28 (Djou +10)

Our metric nailed the margin. We allocated undecideds and we overstated Djou's win by 7 points. Surprisingly, despite the strange nature of the race (mail in ballots only), and a surprisingly high participation (54%), Merriman did a good job nailing Djou's level of support and seeing Case's support drop in the last few weeks. Merriman was the only pollster to have Hanabusa 2nd, albeit with a tie.

Most Accurate Pollster: Merriman - Djou 40 - Hanabusa 26 - Case 26 (Djou +14)

Post-Game Analysis

Primary and special election polling is usually unreliable and erratic and this Tuesday, it was no exception. We declined to allocate undecideds in most of the primaries, due to erratic polling. Our metric was off by 8 points at most, which made the difference in close races such as PA-12 (special), KY-Sen (Dem) and PA-Sen (Dem). We called every other winner.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

KY-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Paul 51 - Greyson 32 (Paul +19)
Final: Paul 59 - Greyson 35 (Paul +24)

Our metric was off by 5 points. We allocated undecideds and were off by only 2 points. But overall, the pollsters, even the best in the business, missed the margin. Magellan, a partisan firm, surprisingly nailed the "Rand-slide".

Most Accurate Pollster: Magellan (R) - Paul 55 - Greyson 30 (Paul +25)

KY-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Mongiardo 38 - Conway 34 (Mongiardo +4)
Final: Conway 44 - Mongiardo 43 (Conway +1)

Our metric was off by 5 points. We declined to allocate undecideds in this race. Conway surged just a few weeks before election day and hit a wall. But he managed to squeak through with a 1 percent win and was arguably the 2nd most shocking outcome of Tuesday. No one showed Conway with a lead, but Survey USA did show a 1 point race.

Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Mongiardo 38 - Conway 37 (Mongiardo +1)

PA-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Specter 43 - Sestak 42 (Specter +0)
Final: Sestak 54 - Specter 46 (Sestak +8)

Our metric was off by 8 points. Specter led most polls and in the last week, showed a consolidation of his base, but that wasn't enough. The undecideds broke for Sestak in a big way. Heavy rain in Philadelphia suppressed turnout for Specter and his opponent's performance may have been overstated. Suffolk almost nailed the result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Suffolk - Sestak 49 - Specter 40 (Sestak +9)

PA-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Onorato 36 - Wagner 10 (Onorato +26)
Final: Onorato 45 - Wagner 24 (Onorato +21)

No surprises here. Our metric was off 5 points, but accurately predicted a win for Onorato in the 20's. Polling was all over the map. Rasmussen came closest but they were still 4 points off.

Most Accurate Pollster: Rasmussen - Onorato 34 - Wagner 17 (Onorato +17)

AR-Sen (Dem):
Metric: Lincoln 44 - Halter 34 (Lincoln +10)
Final: Lincoln 45 - Halter 43 (Lincoln +2)

Our metric was off 8 points. The surprises here lay with the margin of victory. Almost all pollsters showed a huge lead for Blanche Lincoln. Talk Business was the most conservative in its estimate for Lincoln's lead, but they were still 5 points off the final result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Lincoln 38 - Halter 31 (Lincoln +7)


AR-Sen (GOP):
Metric: Boozman 46 - Holt 14 (Boozman +32)
Final: Boozman 53 - Holt 17 (Boozman +36)

Our metric was off 4 points. Talk Business did a great job in the GOP side. They were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Talk Business - Boozman 46 - Holt 8 (Boozman +38)

OR-Gov (GOP):
Metric: Dudley 39 - Alley 23 (Dudley +16)
Final: Dudley 40 - Alley 32 (Dudley +8)

Our metric was off 8 points. Survey USA, the nation's most reputable pollster, was surprisingly off. They overstated Dudley's support in a big way. Portland Tribune's poll, conducted around the same time, nailed the margin much better and were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Portland Tribune - Dudley 33 - Alley 23 (Dudley +10)

OR-Gov (Dem):
Metric: Kitzhaber 57 - Bradbury 24 (Kitzhaber +33)
Final: Kitzhaber 66 - Bradbury 30 (Kitzhaber +36)

Our metric was off by 3 points. Survey USA nailed the Dem side of the Governor race. They were off by only 2 points.

Most Accurate Pollster: Survey USA - Kitzhaber 59 - Bradbury 25 (Kitzhaber +34)

PA-12:
Metric: Burns 45 - Critz 45 (Tie)
Final: Critz 53 - Burns 45 (Critz + 8)

The metric was off by 8 points in this special election. PPP released the last poll of the cycle, showing a Burns lead of 1 point. Our metric actually showed a very slight Critz win, but we decided to allocate the undecideds and gave Burns an edge. The heated primary between Sestak and Specter drove up turnout in the district and Critz won by 8 points, essentially picking up 100% of undecideds according to the metric. None of the recent polling nailed the race, but a month old poll from Global Strategy nailed the final result.

Most Accurate Pollster: Global Strategy - Critz 45 - Burns 37 (Critz +8)

Live Blogging: Election Results

All times are EDT.

22:59
AR: 38% in. Lincoln leads 44-42. Boozman leads 50-16.

22:30
AR: 20% in. Lincoln leads 48-39. Boozman leads 52-16.
PA-12: Critz wins special election. Burns concedes.
22:27
PA-12: 76% in. Critz leads 54-44.

22:16
Let's re-cap the winners:

PA-Gov:
Corbett (R) vs. Onorato (D)

PA-Sen:
Toomey (R) vs. Sestak (D)

KY-Sen:
Paul (R) vs. Conway (D)

Now, on to AR and OR.
22:14
PA: AP declares Sestak winner of PA Democratic primary.
22:11
PA-12: 51% in. Critz leads 55-43.
22:06
AR: 6% in. Lincoln leads 50-38. Boozman leads 52-14.
PA: 53% in. Sestak leads 53-47.
22:04
KY: Conway declared winner in Dem primary. Wins 44-43. He will face off Rand Paul in November.
21:52
KY: 96% in. Conway leads 44-43.
PA: 40% in. Sestak now leads 51-49. Most of Philadelphia has reported (Specter's stronghold). Sestak likely to take the nomination.
21:49
PA: 37% in. Sestak takes a slim lead for the first time, but still tied 50-50.
21:46
PA: 36% in. Specter and Sestak still tied 50-50.
21:42
PA: AP declares Corbett winner in GOP Governor primary. No surprise there.
PA-12: 13% in. Democrat Critz leads 59-39.
21:35
PA: 30% in. Specter and Sestak tied 50-50.
21:30
KY: 90% in. Conway leads 45-43.
PA: 24% in. Specter leads 51-49. Sestak is closing in.
21:24
AR: 1% in. Lincoln leads 48-40. Boozman leads 51-14.
KY: 87% in. Conway leads 45-42.
PA: 19% in. Specter leads 52-48.
21:06
KY: 83% in. Conway leads 46-41.
PA: 11% in. Specter leads 55-45.
20:54
PA: 3% in. Specter leads 65-35.
20:48
KY: 74% in. Conway leads 47-41. Mongiardo closing in. Too close to call at this point.
20:39
AR: Early returns show Lincoln ahead 43-41. Boozman leads 35-22.
20:35
PA: Less than 1% in. Specter ahead of Sestak 66-34.
20:33
AR: Polls have just closed.
PA: Corbett and Toomey lead on the GOP side (no surprises). We probably won't report on these sure winners.
20:32
KY: 60% in. Conway leads 47.7-40.2.
PA: Polls have closed. Results coming in.
20:17
KY: 49% in. Conway leads 48.2-39.7
20:05
KY: 42% in. Conway leads 48.7-39.3.
20:01
KY: 41% in. Conway leads 49.0-39.1. Lead is shrinking.
19:47
Rand Paul declared winner by AP.
19:46
KY: 36% in. Paul leads 58.9-36.5. Conway leads 48.6-38.9.
19:37
KY: 26% in. Paul leads 58.3-37.1. Conway leads 49.6-37.8.
19:29
KY: 16% in. Paul leads 51.6-34.0. Conway leads 47.0-40.3.
19:22
KY: 14% in. Paul leads 51.5-33.9. Conway leads 46.7-40.4.
19:17
KY: 13% in. Paul leads 51.3-33.6. Conway leads 47.2-40.0. The Democrat side is fluctuating wildly.

PA-Gov: Onorato Leads Crowded Dem Field Comfortably

5/17/10
Pennsylvania Governor (Republican Primary)

Tom Corbett (Unchallenged)

Pennyslvania Governor (Democratic Primary)

Dan Onorato 36%
Jack Wagner 10%
Anthony Williams 10%
Joe Hoeffel 8%
Undecided 36%

Onorato +26%

Race News:
Like Oregon, there are no real surprises in the open primary fields of both parties in Pennsylvania.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18. (Posting this at 2:27 AM PDT, so technically the election is today)

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

OR-Gov: Dudley Leads GOP Field, Kitzhaber Leads Dems

5/17/10
Oregon Governor (Republican Primary)

Chris Dudley 39%
Allen Alley 23%
John Lim 8%
Bill Sizemore 7%
Other 4%
Undecided 19%

Dudley +16%

Oregon Governor (Democratic Primary)

John Kitzhaber 57%
Bill Bradbury 24%
Roger Obrist 3%
Undecided 16%

Kitzhaber +33%

Race News:
With minimal polling, we do have clear winners in the Gubernatorial primaries in Oregon. Former NBA player Chris Dudley towers over the GOP field, while former Governor John Kitzhaber leads the Democratic field with a clear majority.

There should be no surprises tomorrow in the Oregon gubernatorial primary.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

HI-01: Djou Leads By Double Digits

5/17/10
HI-01 (Special Election)

Charles Djou (R) 37%
Ed Case (D) 27%
Colleen Hanabusa 24%
Undecided 12%

Djou +10%


Race News:
The DNC pulls out of the Hawaii's first district race, signaling a momentum by Djou. In our current analysis, he increases his lead over Ed Case by double digits. Among those who have voted, according to the latest Merriman River Group poll, Djou garners 45% support.

After we allocate our undecided voters, we find a very similar model to the early voting patterns:

Charles Djou (R) 46%
Ed Case (D) 29%
Colleen Hanabusa 26%

Djou +17%

The special election is happening now via mail and ballots will be accepted for another five days, till May 22 at 6 PM. Voting centers are open from May 10 to May 21, but will be closed on May 22.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

AR-Sen Primary: Lincoln, Boozman Likely To Avoid Runoff

5/17/10
Arkansas Senate (Republican Primary)

John Boozman 46%
Jim Holt 14%
Gilbert Baker 12%
Kim Hendren 4%
Other 7%
Undecided 17%

Boozman +32%

Arkansas Senate (Democratic Primary)

Blanche Lincoln (inc) 44%
Bill Halter 34%
D.C. Morrisson 4%
Undecided 18%

Lincoln +10%

Race News:
Polling has been scarce on the AR GOP Primary, but the metric shows John Boozman with a clear 32% lead over Jim Holt. Holt is even polling ahead of once-frontrunner Gilbert Baker. Boozman only needs to pick up 4% of the pool of 17% undecideds to avoid a runoff. The numbers are on his side.

Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is consolidating her support and looks set to win her primary. If she doesn't reach 50%, there will be a runoff, but with a solid 44 percent of support, she only needs to pick up a third, 6% of the 18% of undecideds to win this without a runoff. This is likely to happen tomorrow.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

PA-Sen Primary: Statistical Tie, Slight Edge To Specter

5/17/10
Pennsylvania Senate (Republican Primary)

Pat Toomey (Unchallenged)

Pennsylvania Senate (Democratic Primary)

Arlen Specter (inc) 42.5%
Joe Sestak 42.1%
Undecided/Other 15.4%

Specter +0.4%

Race News:

The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary is shaping up to be a real nailbiter. Incumbent Arlen Specter is ahead according to the metric, despite a surge by Sestak which eventually stalled mid-week. We will not make a prediction on allocating undecideds and will allocate evenly, predicting Specter will narrowly pull this one out by around 1%.

The primary election is tomorrow, May 18.

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS