Senate Battlegrounds: Metric Update

We present our metric's numbers for the key battleground Senate races. Republicans lead in 4 of the 6 races, are tied in 1, and the Democrat leads in Nevada.

Senate Battleground Races (September 10, 2010):

CA-Sen:

Fiorina (R) 46

Boxer (D) 46

Tie

CO-Sen:

Buck (R) 45

Bennett (D) 44

Buck +1

IL-Sen:

Kirk (R) 40

Giannoulias (D) 38

Kirk +2

NV-Sen:

Angle (R) 46

Reid (D) 47

Reid +1

WA-Sen:

Rossi (R) 48

Murray (D) 47

Rossi +1

WI-Sen:

Johnson (R) 46

Feingold (D) 45

Johnson +1

2010 Senate Ratings Change: FL/KY Move To Likely GOP, WV To Lean Dem

With latest polling from Rasmussen and Susquehanna, Rubio positions himself in a much stronger lead, pulling double digit margins over Charlie Crist (Republican-turned-Independent). As Crist's support implodes and Kendrick Meek hits his likely ceiling, we are moving our rating for FL to Likely GOP.

Rand Paul also consolidates a strong double digit over-50 lead in latest polling. We will not count RV polls in our analysis, or internal polls. This race is looking safer by the day. KY receives an upgrade to Likely GOP. This leaves NH as the only seat the Republicans could possibly be playing defense in. With next week's nomination, we will have a better idea where this race stands.

Latest Rasmussen polling shows Governor Manchin in a much weaker position than previously thought. He is only leading his challenger by 5 points. Though Rasmussen moves this race to a Tossup, we still believe the Dem is favored and move the rating from Likely Dem rightward to Lean Dem. This is subject to change as more polling is released from this race.

Current Projections (September 9, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 7

Lean: 6

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) WV ' (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) DE (Open) IL (Open) NH (Open) PA (Open) WA (Murray)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) KY (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr) OH (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

2010 Senate Ratings Change: WA Moves To GOP, OH Likely GOP

Our first update puts the GOP in a stronger position. Rasmussen joins Survey USA in predicting a narrow win for Dino Rossi in Washington state. Further polling in specific Congressional districts with Republicans in a great position have allowed us to move Washington to Lean GOP.

Latest polling showing high single digit leads for Ohio GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman, as well as support over 50 percent, have allowed us to move Ohio from Lean GOP to Likely GOP. His fundraising advantage, with millions more than Democrat Lee Fisher, and the nature of the electorate and wave this year, make it an easy call. The Democrats are defending too many seats and Ohio is not likely to see the funding Fisher needs to stay competitive.

Current Projections (September 4, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 5

Lean: 8

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 1

Toss-Ups: 3

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM NY (Gilibrand) WV ' (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) DE (Open) FL (Open) IL (Open) KY (Open) NH (Open) PA (Open) WA (Murray)

LIKELY GOP IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr) OH (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

2010 Gov Ratings Change: NM, CA, CO Move

Our first update for the Governor's races includes 2 shifts in favor of the GOP and 1 shift in favor of the Democrats.

CO: The GOP civil war continues between scandal-ridden Maes and spoiler "Independent" Tancredo. Despite pressure for Republican nominee Maes to drop out of the race, he has made clear he is staying. This splits the conservative vote and despite the Democrat Hickenlooper's own scandals, he will likely cruise to victory. We move this race from Tossup to Likely Dem.

CA: Meg Whitman pulls away to a solid 7 point lead in 2 of our most reputable pollster's latest surveys (Survey USA and Rasmussen). She looks likely to hold the Governor's mansion for Republicans in California. We move this from Tossup to Lean GOP.

NM: A similar situation in polling shows Republican Susana Martinez leading Democrat Diane Denish, including in local Registered Voter polls. This does not bode well for the Democrats and this is looking more and more like a GOP pickup by the day. We move this race from Tossup to Lean GOP.


Current Projections (September 4, 2010):

GOP: 31

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 3

Lean: 10

Dem: 14

No Race: 7

Safe: 2

Likely: 3

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 5

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe) NY (Open)

LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open) NH (Open)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) MN (Open)

TOSS UP FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) OR (Open) RI (Open)

LEAN GOP CA (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) ME (Open) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) PA (Open) TX (Perry) VT (Open) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) MI (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

The Great RINO Hunt of 2010 - Continued

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It's Miller Time!

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Congratulations to Joe Miller for his stunning upset of incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R - Alaskan Mafia). Most outstanding ballots in the Alaska GOP primary have been counted, and the margin is apparently too much overcome. How can we be sure? Straight from the fish's mouth. Appointed by her father Frank in 2002 to fill his remaining term as Senator (No truth to the rumor that Lisa sat on Daddy's lap eating an ice cream cone while he offered her the appointment.), Ms. Murkowski read the handwriting on the wall and conceded the race Tuesday evening, being unable to trim the deficit from a week ago. A relative unknown a month ago, Joe Miller vaulted into contention with an early endorsement from Alaska's Favorite Daughter, former Governor Sarah Palin. Then an impressive final weekend debate with the incumbent and a massive get out the vote program on behalf of Miller were both instrumental in clipping Murkowski at the finish line. Backed by tea party supporters, Joe Miller now becomes the heavy favorite in November. The U.S. Senate and the state of Alaska would both get a substantial conservative upgrade for six years. As for Lisa Murkowski, she has to face actually doing real work for once in her life. And no, spending taxpayer money by the trillions and hob-knobbing with D.C. lobbyists doesn't equal real work. But she's definitely perfectly qualified now as an ex-Senator to swim on the other side of the Washington cesspool as a seven-figure lobbyist for her client of choice. Goodbye, Lisa. At least one person here will not miss you and your 8 years of "public service." Now you're fired!
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- AZDB

Outlook Deteriorates For Democrats In Gubernatorial Races

We have put up our first race ratings for the Governor races and it's looking even worse for Democrats than the Senate. Currently, the Democrats hold a 26-24 majority of governor's mansions. This is sure to change disproportionately in favor of the Republicans, who are competitive in many more seats. Surprisingly, a lot of these seats are in unlikely states like Oregon and Maine, where they have elected surprisingly strong candidates.

The outlook continues to improve for Republicans who nominated the strongest candidates they could in previously tossup races such as Michigan and Alabama where GOP candidates Snyder and Bentley are now cruising with 20 point leads. Even in heavily Democratic states like Maine and Oregon, the GOP have nominated blockbuster candidates (LePage and Dudley, respectively) who have made previously Democratic favored seats into tossups.

Even in Democratic-column states such as Colorado and Hawaii, we are looking at potential scandals/situations that will likely move the ratings towards the GOP. In Colorado's Governor race, Democratic nominee Hickenlooper joins the Republicans with his own ethics scandals and the race is tightening. In Hawaii, a civil war between the two Democratic candidates, Hannemann and Abercrombie, threatens to help Republican Aiona, who has the highest favorability numbers of them all. We will be tracking these races and making appropriate ratings changes.

Although the Democrats are surely playing defense, they have a good chance at pickups in CT, MN and RI. In all three states, the Republicans have held the Governor's mansion for many years, and the voters seem to be looking for a change. If the Democrats run good campaigns in these states, they could secure these seats in their column and make a play for other seats such as FL and CA, expensive markets to advertise, especially with the headwind against them.

Our current projection is +15 GOP for Governorships, but these unique local-centric races can change at a dime. We will keep you updated.

Jackass of the Week

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This guy, Chris Young, running for Providence's mayor, decided to use his time on local TV to introduce himself to the public in an original way. Video speaks for itself:.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KK34q5zDZG8&feature=player_embedded

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This is apparently the quality of candidates Democrats have chosen to offer the public this cycle.

A little pushy for my tastes though.

Note to Chris: The host is not gonna hump you, dude.

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- AZDB

2010 Gov Ratings

These are our first ratings for the cycle. Some primaries are still outstanding but the dynamics of certain races are set. Of course, 2 months is an eternity in politics. We will be busy the next 2 months updating these ratings based on debates, campaign momentum, etc.

There are many open seat races.

Current Projections (August 25, 2010):

GOP: 29

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 3

Lean: 8

Dem: 14

No Race: 7

Safe: 2

Likely: 2

Lean: 3

Toss-Ups: 7

SAFE DEM (2) AR (Beebe) NY (Open)

LIKELY DEM (2) HI (Open) NH (Open)

LEAN DEM (3) CO (Open) CT (Open) MN (Open)

TOSS UP (7) CA (Open) FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) NM (Open) OR (Open) RI (Open)

LEAN GOP (8) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) ME (Open) OH (Strickland) PA (Open) TX (Perry) VT (Open) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP (3) IA (Culver) MI (Open) SC (Open)

SAFE GOP (12) AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

2010 Senate Ratings

These are our first ratings for the cycle. Some primaries are still outstanding but the dynamics of certain races are set. Of course, 2 months is an eternity in politics. We will be busy the next 2 months updating these ratings based on debates, campaign momentum, etc.

The Democrats start out playing defense on a lot of seats in blue states.

Current Projections (August 25, 2010):

GOP: 48

No Race: 23

Safe: 13

Likely: 4

Lean: 8

Dem: 48

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 1

Toss-Ups: 4

SAFE DEM (5) HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM (2) NY (Gilibrand) WV ' (Open)

LEAN DEM (1) CT (Open)

TOSS UP (4) CA (Boxer) NV (Reid) WA (Murray) WI (Feingold)

LEAN GOP (8) CO (Bennett) DE (Open) FL (Open) IL (Open) KY (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) PA (Open)

LIKELY GOP (4) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) MO (Open) NC (Burr)

SAFE GOP (13) AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)

FL-House: Ominous Environment For Democrats

Last night, Florida had its primary. Marco Rubio won the GOP nomination and Kendrick Meek won the Dem nomination. No surprises there, and Rubio goes in to the General Election favored.

But I will focus in on the House results. There are currently 5 contested seats:

FL-2 (D - Boyd)
FL-8 (D - Grayson)
FL-22 (D - Klein)
FL-24 (D - Kosmas)
FL-25 (R - Open)

The last 3 had amazing turnouts on the Republican side, where R ballots outnumbered D ballots 2 to 1 in all three races. These races are now Republican favored for Allen West in FL-22, Sandy Adams in FL-24 and David Rivera in FL-25. We will rate these races Leans GOP.

In FL-2, Boyd faced a strong primary challenge from a very un-funded challenger who made the race a 3 point one. Incumbent Boyd will be in danger in November, but total D ballots still topped the total R ballots - 82,000 to 60,000. We will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-Dem.

In FL-8, outspoken Democrat Alan Grayson faces the consequences of his outrageous behavior and the fundamentals of his swing district as the Republicans picked Daniel Webster, the strongest candidate in the GOP field. Winning a decisive 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field, along with great turnout numbers on the R side for this district, we will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-GOP.


Uncontested Seats

3 of Florida's 25 congressional districts are uncontested by Democrats this election: FL-4, FL-6 and FL-21.

FL-21 is the shocker. The Democrats made a big play for Lincoln Diaz-Balart's seat in this Hispanic-majority Miami-Dade R+5 district. It was listed as a Tossup but ultimately, Diaz-Balart won by 16 percent in 2008.

Shows how bad the environment is for Democrats when they're not even trying this cycle. I remember in 2008 the Democrats were touting the inroads they were making in the Republican Miami burbs. Now all I hear is crickets.

WA-Sen: Survey USA vs. Rasmussen

In Washington state, the heated Senate race between Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray is showing some wildly polarized polling.

I wanted to make sense of the Survey USA poll that shows Rossi with a 52-45 (7 point lead) and the Rasmussen poll showing Murray with a 50-46 lead. An 11 point difference.

But let’s compare Survey USA and Rasmussen’s track record. in Washington state races. Apples to apples.

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2008 President – Obama vs. McCain
Actual result: 58-41 (Obama +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 56-40 (Obama +16)
Ras’ final poll: 54-43 (Obama +11)

2008 Governor – Gregoire vs. Rossi
Actual result: 53-47 (Gregoire +6)
SUSA’s final poll: 52-46 (Gregoire +6)
Ras’ final poll: 50-48 (Gregoire +2)

2006 Senate – Cantwell vs. McGavick
Actual result: 57-40 (Cantwell +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 54-41 (Cantwell +13)
Ras’ final poll: 54-42 (Cantwell +12)

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The numbers should speak for themselves. Plus, SUSA is not known to the wild fluctuations Rasmussen has in its state polling, throughout a cycle.

If Mason Dixon (which was as accurate as Survey USA) shows Murray with a lead in WA, then I will consider Murray being ahead.

The Bimbette Chronicles: Chapter 3

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Appointed Senator Kirsten "Gilly" Gillibrand (D - Valley Girl) reacts to an appeals court striking down of Propostion 8 that was passed by majority vote in California: "A true victory for #equality! V pleased Judge Walker has found #Prop8 to be unconstitutional.".

Trying to decipher Bimbettese here. Does "V pleased" mean she's very pleased with the ruling, or since the ruling struck down the illegality of homosexual marriage in CA does it mean she is privvy to Judge Walker having had her (?) vagina pleased?

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Senator Bimbette spoke further on the subject, off record for annonymous, unnamed sources:

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"Like, oh my God, this ruling by V pleased Walker is sooooo awesome. You know, like equality and stuff. You know? Equality is what I was brought up believing in, because, you know, equality as a value means treating everybody as equals. And it's about time the state I represent in the Senate, New York - right? New York? - join the 20th Century and also proposition the voters for a similar law here. I will hereby make it my personal mission to get a vote on behalf of the gay community, in which I implore every New York citizen to choose the 'Proposition 8' box. Thank you. "

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- BMBT