CO: The GOP civil war continues between scandal-ridden Maes and spoiler "Independent" Tancredo. Despite pressure for Republican nominee Maes to drop out of the race, he has made clear he is staying. This splits the conservative vote and despite the Democrat Hickenlooper's own scandals, he will likely cruise to victory. We move this race from Tossup to Likely Dem.
CA: Meg Whitman pulls away to a solid 7 point lead in 2 of our most reputable pollster's latest surveys (Survey USA and Rasmussen). She looks likely to hold the Governor's mansion for Republicans in California. We move this from Tossup to Lean GOP.
NM: A similar situation in polling shows Republican Susana Martinez leading Democrat Diane Denish, including in local Registered Voter polls. This does not bode well for the Democrats and this is looking more and more like a GOP pickup by the day. We move this race from Tossup to Lean GOP.
Current Projections (September 4, 2010):
GOP: 31
| No Race: 6 | Safe: 12 | Likely: 3 | Lean: 10 |
Dem: 14
| No Race: 7 | Safe: 2 | Likely: 3 | Lean: 2 |
Toss-Ups: 5
| SAFE DEM AR (Beebe) NY (Open) | LIKELY DEM CO (Open) HI (Open) NH (Open) | LEAN DEM CT (Open) MN (Open) | TOSS UP FL (Open) MD (O'Malley) MA (Patrick) OR (Open) RI (Open) | LEAN GOP CA (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) ME (Open) NM (Open) OH (Strickland) PA (Open) TX (Perry) VT (Open) WI (Open) | LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) MI (Open) SC (Open) | SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open) |
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