2010 Senate Post-Game Analysis

Based on RCP averages, it seems that Democrat support across the board was underestimated and Republicans overestimated, except for a handful of safe seats on the GOP side.

Underestimated GOP:
AR-Sen: Boozman (R) 1.4
FL-Sen: Rubio (R) by 2.2
KY-Sen: Paul (R) 0.6
LA-Sen: Vitter (R) 3.9
MO-Sen: Blunt (R) 3.3
ND-Sen: Hoeven (R) 7.0
NH-Sen: Ayotte (R) 7.5

Underestimated Dems:
CA-Sen: Boxer (D) 4.3
CO-Sen: Bennet (D) 3.1
CT-Sen: Blumenthal (D) 3.1
DE-Sen: Coons (D) 2.6
IN-Sen: Ellsworth (D) 4.7
IL-Sen: Giannoulias (D) 1.4
NV-Sen: Reid (D) 8.3
NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 0.7
OH-Sen: Fisher (D) 2.2
OR-Sen: Wyden (D) 0.4
NY-Sen: Gilibrand (D) 4.8
PA-Sen: Sestak (D) 2.5
WA-Sen: Murray (D) 2.7
WV-Sen: Manchin (D) 5.6
WI-Sen: Feingold (D) 2.8

2010 Final House Ratings

We predict over 70 seats will flip from a lopsided Democrat House to a GOP House. With the lack of polling, it's hard to tell which races are truly competitive but based on factors such as funding and sparse/sporadic polling, the House is an absolute bloodbath for Democrats this cycle.

2010 Final Gov Ratings

FL-Gov: Toss-up to Lean GOP (Favors GOP)
CO-Gov: Likely Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
CT-Gov: Lean Dem to Lean GOP (Favors GOP)
MD-Gov: Toss-up to Lean Dem (Favors Dems)
RI-Gov: Lean Dem to Toss-up (Favors GOP)
TX-Gov: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (Favors GOP)

There is even more uncertainty as now we have 8 races that are too close to call. Half of them are 3-way races with lots of uncertainty factoring in (MN, RI, CO, MA). The rest are simply too volatile to call though most tilt Dem (CA, HI, VT). Oregon tilts GOP.

Current Projections (October 9, 2010):

GOP: 31

No Race: 6

Safe: 12

Likely: 7

Lean: 6

Dem: 11

No Race: 7

Safe: 1

Likely: 1

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 8

SAFE DEM AR (Beebe)

LIKELY DEM NY (Open)

LEAN DEM MD (O'Malley) NH (Lynch)

TOSS UP CA (Open) CO (Open) HI (Open) MA (Patrick) MN (Open) OR (Open) RI (Open) VT (Open)

LEAN GOP CT (Open) FL (Open) GA (Open) IL (Quinn) OH (Strickland) WI (Open)

LIKELY GOP IA (Culver) ME (Open) MI (Open) NM (Open) PA (Open) SC (Open) TX (Perry)

SAFE GOP AL (Open) AK (Parnell) AZ (Brewer) ID (Otter) KS (Open) NE (Heinmn) NV (Open) OK (Open) SD (Open) TN (Open) UT (Herbert) WY (Open)

2010 Final Senate Ratings - Senate Control Comes Down To West Coast

WV-Sen: Lean GOP to Lean Dem (favors Dems)
KY-Sen: Lean GOP to Likely GOP (favors GOP)
NV-Sen: Toss-up to Lean GOP (favors GOP)

The GOP solidifies Kentucky and improves its position in Nevada while WV seems to slip out of reach. Despite widely variant polling WA and CA, we have both as tossups, with Dems slightly favored in CA and GOP slightly favored in WA.

Current Projections (November 1, 2010):

GOP: 49

No Race: 23

Safe: 14

Likely: 8

Lean: 4

Dem: 49

No Race: 40

Safe: 5

Likely: 2

Lean: 2

Toss-Ups: 2

SAFE DEM HI (Inouye) MD (Mikulski) NY (Schumer) OR (Wyden) VT (Leahy)

LIKELY DEM DE (Open) NY (Gilibrand)

LEAN DEM CT (Open) WV ' (Open)

TOSS UP CA (Boxer) WA (Murray)

LEAN GOP CO (Bennett) IL (Open) NV (Reid) PA (Open)

LIKELY GOP FL (Open) IN (Open) LA (Vitter) KY (Open) MO (Open) NH (Open) OH (Open) WI (Feingold)

SAFE GOP AL (Shelby) AK (Open) AZ (McCain) AR (Lincoln) GA (Isakson) ID (Crapo) IA (Grassley) KS (Open) NC (Burr) ND (Open) OK (Coburn) SC (DeMint) SD (Thune) UT (Open)