Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The Great RINO Hunt of 2010 - Continued

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It's Miller Time!
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Congratulations to Joe Miller for his stunning upset of incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R - Alaskan Mafia). Most outstanding ballots in the Alaska GOP primary have been counted, and the margin is apparently too much overcome. How can we be sure? Straight from the fish's mouth. Appointed by her father Frank in 2002 to fill his remaining term as Senator (No truth to the rumor that Lisa sat on Daddy's lap eating an ice cream cone while he offered her the appointment.), Ms. Murkowski read the handwriting on the wall and conceded the race Tuesday evening, being unable to trim the deficit from a week ago. A relative unknown a month ago, Joe Miller vaulted into contention with an early endorsement from Alaska's Favorite Daughter, former Governor Sarah Palin. Then an impressive final weekend debate with the incumbent and a massive get out the vote program on behalf of Miller were both instrumental in clipping Murkowski at the finish line. Backed by tea party supporters, Joe Miller now becomes the heavy favorite in November. The U.S. Senate and the state of Alaska would both get a substantial conservative upgrade for six years. As for Lisa Murkowski, she has to face actually doing real work for once in her life. And no, spending taxpayer money by the trillions and hob-knobbing with D.C. lobbyists doesn't equal real work. But she's definitely perfectly qualified now as an ex-Senator to swim on the other side of the Washington cesspool as a seven-figure lobbyist for her client of choice. Goodbye, Lisa. At least one person here will not miss you and your 8 years of "public service." Now you're fired!
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- AZDB

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Outlook Deteriorates For Democrats In Gubernatorial Races

We have put up our first race ratings for the Governor races and it's looking even worse for Democrats than the Senate. Currently, the Democrats hold a 26-24 majority of governor's mansions. This is sure to change disproportionately in favor of the Republicans, who are competitive in many more seats. Surprisingly, a lot of these seats are in unlikely states like Oregon and Maine, where they have elected surprisingly strong candidates.

The outlook continues to improve for Republicans who nominated the strongest candidates they could in previously tossup races such as Michigan and Alabama where GOP candidates Snyder and Bentley are now cruising with 20 point leads. Even in heavily Democratic states like Maine and Oregon, the GOP have nominated blockbuster candidates (LePage and Dudley, respectively) who have made previously Democratic favored seats into tossups.

Even in Democratic-column states such as Colorado and Hawaii, we are looking at potential scandals/situations that will likely move the ratings towards the GOP. In Colorado's Governor race, Democratic nominee Hickenlooper joins the Republicans with his own ethics scandals and the race is tightening. In Hawaii, a civil war between the two Democratic candidates, Hannemann and Abercrombie, threatens to help Republican Aiona, who has the highest favorability numbers of them all. We will be tracking these races and making appropriate ratings changes.

Although the Democrats are surely playing defense, they have a good chance at pickups in CT, MN and RI. In all three states, the Republicans have held the Governor's mansion for many years, and the voters seem to be looking for a change. If the Democrats run good campaigns in these states, they could secure these seats in their column and make a play for other seats such as FL and CA, expensive markets to advertise, especially with the headwind against them.

Our current projection is +15 GOP for Governorships, but these unique local-centric races can change at a dime. We will keep you updated.

Jackass of the Week

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This guy, Chris Young, running for Providence's mayor, decided to use his time on local TV to introduce himself to the public in an original way. Video speaks for itself:.

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This is apparently the quality of candidates Democrats have chosen to offer the public this cycle.
A little pushy for my tastes though.
Note to Chris: The host is not gonna hump you, dude.
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- AZDB

2010 Gov Ratings

These are our first ratings for the cycle. Some primaries are still outstanding but the dynamics of certain races are set. Of course, 2 months is an eternity in politics. We will be busy the next 2 months updating these ratings based on debates, campaign momentum, etc.

There are many open seat races.

Current Projections (August 25, 2010):

GOP: 29

No Race: 6
Safe: 12Likely: 3 Lean: 8

Dem: 14
No Race: 7
Safe: 2
Likely: 2
Lean: 3

Toss-Ups: 7

SAFE DEM
(2)


AR (Beebe)

NY (Open)


LIKELY DEM
(2)


HI
(Open)


NH (Open)

LEAN DEM
(3)


CO
(Open)


CT
(Open)


MN
(Open)


TOSS
UP

(7)


CA
(Open)

FL
(Open)

MD (O'Malley)

MA (Patrick)

NM
(Open)


OR
(Open)


RI
(Open)


LEAN
GOP

(8)


GA
(Open)

IL
(Quinn)


ME
(Open)


OH (Strickland)


PA
(Open)


TX
(Perry)

VT
(Open)

WI
(Open)


LIKELY GOP
(3)


IA (Culver)

MI (Open)

SC
(Open)

SAFE
GOP

(12)


AL
(Open)

AK
(Parnell)

AZ
(Brewer)

ID
(Otter)

KS
(Open)


NE (Heinmn)


NV
(Open)


OK
(Open)


SD
(Open)

TN
(Open)


UT
(Herbert)


WY
(Open)




Wednesday, August 25, 2010

2010 Senate Ratings

These are our first ratings for the cycle. Some primaries are still outstanding but the dynamics of certain races are set. Of course, 2 months is an eternity in politics. We will be busy the next 2 months updating these ratings based on debates, campaign momentum, etc.

The Democrats start out playing defense on a lot of seats in blue states.

Current Projections (August 25, 2010):

GOP: 48
No Race: 23Safe: 13Likely: 4 Lean: 8

Dem: 48
No Race: 40Safe: 5Likely: 2Lean: 1

Toss-Ups: 4

SAFE DEM
(5)


HI (Inouye)

MD (Mikulski)

NY (Schumer)

OR (Wyden)

VT
(Leahy)


LIKELY DEM
(2)


NY (Gilibrand)

WV '
(Open)


LEAN DEM
(1)


CT (Open
)



TOSS
UP

(4)


CA
(Boxer)


NV
(Reid)


WA (Murray)


WI (Feingold)


LEAN GOP
(8)


CO (Bennett)


DE
(Open)


FL
(Open)


IL
(Open)


KY (Open)

NH (Open)

OH (Open)


PA (Open)


LIKELY GOP
(4)


IN (Open)


LA
(Vitter)

MO (Open)

NC (Burr)

SAFE GOP
(13)


AL (Shelby)


AK
(Open)


AZ (McCain)

AR (Lincoln)


GA (Isakson)

ID
(Crapo)

IA (Grassley)

KS
(Open)

ND
(Open)


OK (Coburn)

SC (DeMint)

SD (Thune)

UT
(Open)


FL-House: Ominous Environment For Democrats

Last night, Florida had its primary. Marco Rubio won the GOP nomination and Kendrick Meek won the Dem nomination. No surprises there, and Rubio goes in to the General Election favored.

But I will focus in on the House results. There are currently 5 contested seats:

FL-2 (D - Boyd)
FL-8 (D - Grayson)
FL-22 (D - Klein)
FL-24 (D - Kosmas)
FL-25 (R - Open)

The last 3 had amazing turnouts on the Republican side, where R ballots outnumbered D ballots 2 to 1 in all three races. These races are now Republican favored for Allen West in FL-22, Sandy Adams in FL-24 and David Rivera in FL-25. We will rate these races Leans GOP.

In FL-2, Boyd faced a strong primary challenge from a very un-funded challenger who made the race a 3 point one. Incumbent Boyd will be in danger in November, but total D ballots still topped the total R ballots - 82,000 to 60,000. We will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-Dem.

In FL-8, outspoken Democrat Alan Grayson faces the consequences of his outrageous behavior and the fundamentals of his swing district as the Republicans picked Daniel Webster, the strongest candidate in the GOP field. Winning a decisive 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field, along with great turnout numbers on the R side for this district, we will rate this race Tossup/Tilt-GOP.


Uncontested Seats

3 of Florida's 25 congressional districts are uncontested by Democrats this election: FL-4, FL-6 and FL-21.

FL-21 is the shocker. The Democrats made a big play for Lincoln Diaz-Balart's seat in this Hispanic-majority Miami-Dade R+5 district. It was listed as a Tossup but ultimately, Diaz-Balart won by 16 percent in 2008.

Shows how bad the environment is for Democrats when they're not even trying this cycle. I remember in 2008 the Democrats were touting the inroads they were making in the Republican Miami burbs. Now all I hear is crickets.

Monday, August 23, 2010

WA-Sen: Survey USA vs. Rasmussen

In Washington state, the heated Senate race between Republican Dino Rossi and incumbent Democrat Patty Murray is showing some wildly polarized polling.

I wanted to make sense of the Survey USA poll that shows Rossi with a 52-45 (7 point lead) and the Rasmussen poll showing Murray with a 50-46 lead. An 11 point difference.

But let’s compare Survey USA and Rasmussen’s track record. in Washington state races. Apples to apples.

————–

2008 President – Obama vs. McCain
Actual result: 58-41 (Obama +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 56-40 (Obama +16)
Ras’ final poll: 54-43 (Obama +11)

2008 Governor – Gregoire vs. Rossi
Actual result: 53-47 (Gregoire +6)
SUSA’s final poll: 52-46 (Gregoire +6)
Ras’ final poll: 50-48 (Gregoire +2)

2006 Senate – Cantwell vs. McGavick
Actual result: 57-40 (Cantwell +17)
SUSA’s final poll: 54-41 (Cantwell +13)
Ras’ final poll: 54-42 (Cantwell +12)

————-

The numbers should speak for themselves. Plus, SUSA is not known to the wild fluctuations Rasmussen has in its state polling, throughout a cycle.

If Mason Dixon (which was as accurate as Survey USA) shows Murray with a lead in WA, then I will consider Murray being ahead.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

The Bimbette Chronicles: Chapter 3

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Appointed Senator Kirsten "Gilly" Gillibrand (D - Valley Girl) reacts to an appeals court striking down of Propostion 8 that was passed by majority vote in California: "A true victory for #equality! V pleased Judge Walker has found #Prop8 to be unconstitutional.".

Trying to decipher Bimbettese here. Does "V pleased" mean she's very pleased with the ruling, or since the ruling struck down the illegality of homosexual marriage in CA does it mean she is privvy to Judge Walker having had her (?) vagina pleased?
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Senator Bimbette spoke further on the subject, off record for annonymous, unnamed sources:
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"Like, oh my God, this ruling by V pleased Walker is sooooo awesome. You know, like equality and stuff. You know? Equality is what I was brought up believing in, because, you know, equality as a value means treating everybody as equals. And it's about time the state I represent in the Senate, New York - right? New York? - join the 20th Century and also proposition the voters for a similar law here. I will hereby make it my personal mission to get a vote on behalf of the gay community, in which I implore every New York citizen to choose the 'Proposition 8' box. Thank you. "
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- BMBT

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Post-Game Analysis: GA-Gov Primary (GOP)

Primary polling in the Georgia race was surprisingly right on the mark. After starting off the month of July behind in the polls, Karen Handel surged to the lead and won a plurality of voters.

This post-game analysis will give an insight on the polling averages vs. the final outcomes and the best pollster of the race.

GA-Gov Primary (Rep):
Metric: Handel 30 - Deal 19 (Handel +11)
Final: Handel 34 - Halter 23 (Handel +11)

Our metric was right on the mark. With polls showing varying Handel leads, none of the pollsters nailed the margin. But we did. :) Oxendine severely underperformed and essentially picked up no undecided voters from our metric. (We nailed his percentage) Johnson was at 14 percent and ended up in 3rd place, garnering 20 percent of the vote.

Most Accurate Pollster: Insider Advantage - Handel 24 - Deal 16 (Handel +8)

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

7/20/10 Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)
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Race Prediction (Final) -
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Using the last week's slew of polls, opinions from unnamed, anonymous experts on Georgia politics, and factors such as momentum and endorsements (which tend to go hand-in-hand when an endorsement comes from a former governor of a chilly, Arctic state), AZDB is willing to put his powers-of-prediction reputation on the line in a clustered gubernatorial primary. Using Electionology's final metric for the GA GOP Primary and allocating the remaining "undecided" and "other" voters, here is the final prediction for the results come Tuesday night (Remember, top 2 go to runoff in August):.

Karen Handel 40%
Nathan Deal 22%
John Oxendine 17%
Eric Johnson 15%
Other 6%
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Handel +18% (1st)
Deal +5 (2nd)

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- AZDB
7/19/10
Georgia Governor (Republican Primary)

Karen Handel 30%
Nathan Deal 19%
John Oxendine 17%
Eric Johnson 14%
Other 6%
Undecided 14%

Handel +11%

Race News:
What a race. The frontrunner John Oxendine has fallen to third place and likely won't make runoff. We predict Handel and Deal to make it to the runoff. Karen Handel received a "Mama Grizzly" endorsement from Palin, who demonstrated the same magic in her Nikki Haley endorsement in South Carolina. Her candidate here in Georgia, Karen Handel, has since surged in the polls and is now the clear frontrunner. The runoff will be another exciting race to watch.

The primary election is tomorrow, July 20. (Posting this at 2:50 AM PDT, so technically the election is today)

*All calculations are made from our in-house metric, which accurately predicted outcomes in all recent elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, MA-Sen, TX-Gov Primary)

-FSHS

Sunday, July 4, 2010

50 Best State GOP Electoral Successes - Florida

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Now representing our "50 Best" series is the Sunshine State (Florida, for you geography majors out there). Amazing to think where the GOP stood in this southern-but-not-really-part- of-the-South state 50 years ago. Republicans hadn't held the governor's office in over 83 years (and wouldn't finally see one for 7 more years). It hadn't held either U.S. Senate seats in over 80 years, and occupied only one of its eight Congressional seats. And even up until the Gipper took the oath of office, 12 of 15 Representatives in Congress were Democrats. Going back to the 1870s and throughout the 20th Century, Republican politicians were about as popular as polio in Florida. But the national souring of the Democrat brand in the South under Reagan & Bill Clinton (D - Playboy Mansion) during an explosion of Florida's population allowed for a second look at what the GOP had to offer. Today, the Republicans have been victorious in three consecutive Governor races (even though the current occupant, Mr. Green Iguana, has quit the party and declared himself "Independent" in a desperate attempt to be a U.S. Senator), holds a Senate seat (occupying at least one for 24 of the last 30 years), and represents 15 of the state's 25 congressional districts.
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No surprise then that the most influential Republican, the one who has been the Best for the Florida GOP's brand, and who has done the most for the party's statewide bench served in recent years. Thus, the "50 Best" honor goes to John Ellis "Jeb" Bush, who coincidentally served as 43rd governor of Florida while his older brother, George W, served simultaneously as 43rd President of the United States.
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Jeb Bush is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of Texas, finishing his Bachelor's in only two and a half years. After getting his degree, he took an entry level position in the international division of Texas Commerce Bank. In 1977, he was sent to Caracas, Venezuela to open a new operation for the bank and spent about two years working in international finance. He returned to the U.S. in 1980, working unpaid for his father's campaign for President. Following the unsucessful nomination battle, Jeb and family moved to Miami-Dade, Florida, where he began a stretch working in real estate ventures. During Bush's time in Miami, he was involved in many different entrepreneurial pursuits, including working for a mobile phone company, serving on the board of a Norwegian-owned company that sold fire equipment to the Alaska oil pipeline, becoming a minority owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, buying a shoe company that sold footwear in Panama, and getting involved in a project selling water pumps in Nigeria (Wiki). Jeb started his rise in Florida politics as Chairman of the Dade County Republican Party. Since Dade County was know to have played an impact role in the 1986 election of Bob Martinez as Governor, Martinez in turn appointed Bush as Florida's Secretary of Commerce, serving from 1987-88 before resigning to work on his father's presidential campaign (ibid). In 1994, hoping to ride a national GOP wave, he launched a bid to dethrone the incumbent governor, Lawton Chiles. Neck-and-neck the entire campaign, the race turned in the waning days on the Chiles team's under-the-radar effort to scare the state's large senior population over the issue of Social Security. Bush lost by on 64K votes out of over 4 million cast. The same year, his brother George W shocked Texas Democrats by defeating the seemingly-popular Governor Ann "Ma" Richards. If not for a swing of 32,000 votes, Jeb, the one the Bush family imagined destined for the Presidency, may have instead been demagogued as a Nazi and war criminal during the last decade instead of his brother.
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The younger Bush got a bit of revenge in 1998, winning the Florida Governorship by a comfortable 418K vote margin. Unable to come to grips with losing the Presidency in 2000 by an insanely-small margin in the deciding state of Florida, national Democrats targeted Jeb Bush as priority #1 in the midterms of 2002, believing it was his influence that captured the Presidency for his older brother. Frothing at the mouth, Democrats thought they had a winner with inexperienced lawyer Bill McBride. However, riding a strong record as Governor and popularity with voters, Bush easily dispatched of McBride by 13%, an even greater margin than when he wasn't so targeted in 1998. Bush made Florida political history by becoming the first Republican Governor to ever win re-election in Florida, and later became only the second governor in the state's history to complete two entire four-year terms. Unable to seek a third race in 2006 due to term limits, Jeb has been object of speculation that he would run for either U.S. Senate or the Presidency. So far he has declined to run for either.
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Jeb Bush has been THE heavyweight figure in Florida GOP circles for more than a decade, and his legacy includes an expansion of Republican officeholders in the state under his watch, as well as setting up the state's Attorney General to follow him as Governor during the GOP bloodbath of 2006. For these reasons and improvement of the Florida state GOP under his tenure, Jeb Bush earns the honor of one of the nation's "50 Best."
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Honorable Mention: Former Congressman & Senator Connie Mack; Congressman Bill Young
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Next Chapter: Georgia
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- 50 Best